Is the US initiative for peace in Ukraine failing? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Potential US peace framework for Ukraine-Russia conflict
• Territorial concessions by Ukraine (Crimea, occupied territories)
• Sanctions relief for Russia
• Ukraine's NATO membership prospects
• Security guarantees for Ukraine (European, not US)
• Ceasefire and freezing of territorial lines
• Ukrainian perspective on territorial integrity and sovereignty
• Russian perspective on negotiations and territorial control
• US domestic political considerations
• European support for Ukraine
• Potential disengagement of US support
• Importance of intelligence and military aid
• Russian war aims and potential outcomes
• Negotiation strategies and information warfare

US Peace Framework Proposal

• Accusation: President Trump accused Ukraine's President Zelensky of blocking a potential peace deal with Russia.
• Framework Details (Unclear, based on media reports):
  • Major concessions from Ukraine.
  • Minimal demands on Russia.
  • Freezing territorial lines close to current positions.
• Territorial Loss for Ukraine: Approximately 20% of territory, including:
  • Crimean Peninsula (annexed by Russia in 2014).
  • Almost all land occupied by Russia on the battlefield.
• US Concessions to Russia:
  • Recognition of Crimea as part of Russia.
  • Sanctions relief.
  • Promise that Ukraine would not be admitted to NATO.
• Limited Gains for Ukraine:
  • Security guarantees from European countries (training soldiers).
  • No mention of US involvement in security guarantees.
  • Unclear peacekeeping operation details.
  • Compensation and reconstruction aid (unclear source and amount).

Ukrainian Rejection of the Proposal

• Yhenya Kravchuk (Ukrainian Parliament Member):
  • Ukraine will never recognize Ukrainian territories as Russian.
  • Ukraine will never be silent when someone wants to reward an aggressor.
  • No official documents received from the US regarding these concessions.
  • Giving permission to the aggressor to enact the territories would undermine the global order established after World War II.
• Crimea:
  • Trump questioned why Ukraine never fought for Crimea.
  • Kravchuk noted Zelensky became president in 2019.
  • US leadership at the time was "very mild" towards Russia.
  • Ukraine was told by Western countries not to start a war and to pursue diplomatic solutions.
  • Russia did not stop at Crimea and started the war in eastern provinces.
• Potential US Disengagement:
  • Trump warned Zelensky of three more years of war and complete loss of Ukraine if he doesn't accept the deal.
  • Kravchuk: Defining "Russian victory" is crucial.
  • Russians are capturing one village in three months.
  • Ukrainians do not want to live in a world where aggressors are unpunished.
• Territorial Integrity:
  • France stated that Ukraine's territorial integrity is not negotiable.
  • Freezing the conflict and giving territory to Russia would create a "new gulag" with no rights for the people living there.
• European Support:
  • European support is solid but cannot realistically replace the US security umbrella.
  • Russia would love to see Western allies divided.
  • Ukraine will continue fighting.
  • Ukraine is currently the country who produces the biggest amount of drones in the world.

Ukrainian Resolve and International Support

• Elizabeth Yasco (Ukrainian Parliament Member):
  • Ukraine feels forced, but no one can force them to accept unacceptable terms.
  • The Ukrainian people will decide.
  • Partnership and military aid are important, but the future of Ukraine and humanity is also important.
  • Any force trying to rewrite history or mislabel aggressors is unacceptable.
• US Domestic Politics:
  • Americans are trying to be very good for the American internal audience.
  • This rhetoric is dangerous internationally and geopolitically.
• Limited Options:
  • No good options to quickly fill the gap if the US pulls support.
  • Giving up is not an option.
  • Ukraine has paid a very high price and lost many people.
  • There is no compromise from Russia.
  • Negotiating is already a compromise from Ukraine.
• European Action:
  • Europe should act on its own behalf.
  • Security and rearmament are important for the future.
  • Many countries are taking security seriously.
  • There was a high level of naivety by Europeans in the past, but these times are gone.

Russian Perspective and Information Warfare

• Sergey Satanovski (DW Correspondent in Riga):
  • Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said that Trump's understanding that Ukraine lost Crimea long ago aligns with the Kremlin's understanding.
  • The Kremlin hasn't confirmed or denied any agreement between the US and Russia.
  • Negotiations are better conducted quietly.
  • Peskov dismissed reports of stopping the war along current front lines as fake news.
• Cautious Optimism:
  • There is a sense of cautious optimism in the Kremlin.
  • Talks are moving in the right direction.
  • Officials are keeping quiet about the state of negotiations.
• Blaming Ukraine:
  • The Kremlin is accusing Kiev of being unwilling to make any deal.
  • The Russian Foreign Ministry points to a violation of the Easter truce.
  • Russian state media is echoing the narrative that Moscow is trying to reach an agreement while Kiev is rejecting every offer.
• Military Bloggers:
  • Military bloggers believe that ending the conflict now would look like a defeat or betrayal.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The video presents a complex situation surrounding a potential US-brokered peace deal between Ukraine and Russia. The proposed framework involves significant territorial concessions from Ukraine, sanctions relief for Russia, and uncertain security guarantees for Ukraine. While the US administration, particularly under President Trump, seems to be pushing for this deal, Ukraine vehemently rejects it, viewing it as a betrayal of its sovereignty and territorial integrity. The Ukrainian representatives emphasize the importance of international law, the potential for a "new gulag" in occupied territories, and the need for continued support from Europe and the US. Russia, while cautiously optimistic, remains ambiguous about the details of the negotiations and continues to blame Ukraine for the lack of progress. The situation is further complicated by US domestic political considerations and the potential for a shift in US foreign policy, leaving Ukraine in a precarious position. The video highlights the deep divisions and conflicting perspectives surrounding the conflict, emphasizing the challenges in finding a lasting and just resolution.