Is The Iran-US Deal Actually Done?! with Andreas Steno | Macro Mondays

Key Concepts

• Geopolitical De-escalation: The US-Iran memorandum of understanding regarding the Strait of Hormuz.
• Oil Market Dynamics: Supply-demand surplus, "Operation Freedom," and the impact of Chinese import behavior.
• AI Sovereignty & Regulation: Export curbs on Anthropic’s "Fable" model and the concept of "too big to fail" for AI companies.
• Liquidity & IPOs: Analysis of the SpaceX IPO and upcoming AI-sector public offerings.
• Macro Policy: Critique of European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate hikes and inflation alarmism.
• Semiconductor Cycle: South Korean export data as a leading indicator for hardware demand.

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1. Geopolitical Developments: The US-Iran Deal

Andreas Steno highlights a significant de-escalation between the US and Iran.

• The Deal: A 60-day memorandum of understanding aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and allowing Iran to export oil globally without sanctions.
• Unresolved Issues: The status of enriched uranium remains a point of contention, with US hawks (e.g., Lindsey Graham) demanding Congressional oversight.
• Strategic Perspective: Steno views this as "sequential progress," arguing that the peak of the crisis passed in early April.

2. Oil Market Analysis

Steno challenges the consensus view that the oil market was in a deficit, arguing instead for a "mild surplus."

• Supply Decomposition:
  • 11.5 million barrels/day (mb/d) replaced by alternative measures.
  • ~2 mb/d supplied by US SPR and commercial reserves.
  • Operation Freedom: Launched in early May, this operation successfully moved ~3 million barrels/day out of the Persian Gulf, a figure previously unaccounted for by energy pundits.
• The China Factor: China has been on a "buyer strike" since late March, importing 5.5 mb/d less than usual, which helped balance the market.
• Future Outlook: If sanctions remain lifted, Iran could potentially add 0.75 mb/d to global supply. Steno predicts oil prices could fall below $70/barrel by the end of the month.

3. AI Regulation and "Too Big to Fail"

The US administration implemented export curbs on Anthropic’s "Fable" model, restricting access to users outside the US.

• The "Put" Option: Steno argues that because these models are essential to the US-China race toward Artificial General Intelligence (AGI), they have become "too big to fail."
• Market Impact: While export curbs limit the Total Addressable Market (TAM), they reduce "left-tail" risk (catastrophic failure) because the public sector is likely to provide financial support if necessary.

4. IPO Dynamics and Liquidity

• SpaceX IPO: The largest IPO in history, which saw a 15-20% increase on its first day. Steno notes that passive flows will continue as the stock is added to the Nasdaq 100 in 13 days.
• Market Context: While 2025 is seeing a massive wave of IPOs (projected $300 billion total), Steno argues this is not an extreme bubble compared to the dot-com era, as it represents only ~4% of total market cap.
• Hardware vs. Software: Steno remains skeptical of AI software IPOs (Anthropic/OpenAI) due to potential shifts toward cheaper tokens, preferring to stay invested in hardware (semiconductors, power semis, memory).

5. Macro Policy Critique

• ECB Policy: Steno criticizes the European Central Bank for hiking interest rates while projecting unrealistic growth (0.8% for 2026) despite a negative Q1. He labels this "inflation alarmism" and poor timing.
• Semiconductor Indicators: South Korean export data shows a 90% year-over-year growth for the first 10 days of the month, signaling that the semiconductor cycle remains in a "hay day."

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Synthesis and Conclusion

The overarching theme of the analysis is that the market is currently benefiting from a "better liquidity picture than feared." By correctly identifying the oil surplus and the "too big to fail" nature of AI infrastructure, Steno maintains a risk-positive tilt. He concludes that while the IPO market is active, the real value remains in the hardware supply chain (semiconductors) rather than the software models themselves, which face increasing regulatory and margin pressures. He advises investors to ignore the "inflation alarmists" and focus on the underlying liquidity and trade data.