Is South Korea's Second-Largest City Facing Extinction? | CNA Correspondent | Busan

Busan's Demographic Crisis: A Deep Dive

Key Concepts: Population decline, aging population, youth exodus, economic stagnation, regional disparity, Incheon's growth, Busan's revitalization efforts, AI industry, quality of life vs. career opportunities, job market mismatch.

1. Busan's Decline: A City at a Crossroads

• Main Point: Busan, once a thriving industrial hub and South Korea's second-largest city, is facing a severe population decline and the risk of extinction due to an aging population and the outmigration of young people to Seoul.
• Specific Details:
  • Population decreased from 3.29 million in 2023 to 3.27 million last year, losing approximately 600,000 people in the past three decades.
  • The city's traditional industries (shipbuilding, steel, heavy equipment manufacturing) have failed to keep pace with innovation, leading to a lack of high-paying jobs.
  • University campuses are experiencing a shrinking pool of Korean students, exacerbated by South Korea's low birth rate.
• Evidence: Empty houses and shuttered shops in older districts are visual signs of the city's decline.
• Quote: "These are all empty houses," says a grandmother in a declining neighborhood.

2. The Youth Exodus: Seeking Opportunities Elsewhere

• Main Point: Young people are leaving Busan primarily due to a lack of job opportunities and career prospects compared to Seoul and other regions.
• Specific Details:
  • 1.22 million young South Koreans were jobless or economically inactive as of February, an increase of 70,000 from the previous year.
  • Students are seeking jobs in industries like automotive engineering, but opportunities are limited in Busan, leading them to consider cities like Ulsan or Changwon.
  • Many young people move to Seoul without a clear goal, simply seeking better opportunities.
• Example: A fourth-year digital media design student at Dongseo University expresses concerns about job prospects and seeks career guidance.
• Argument: The concentration of economic activity and opportunities in the Seoul metropolitan area creates a "capital-centered" economy, disadvantaging regional cities like Busan.

3. Government and University Efforts: Addressing the Crisis

• Main Point: Local universities and the central government are implementing strategies to improve the prospects for students and revitalize the regional economy.
• Specific Details:
  • Universities are collaborating with the government and strengthening networks with industries both within and outside the region.
  • The central government is working to improve job prospects for students from regional universities and expand educational opportunities.
• Example: Dongseo University is trying to collaborate with the government and strengthen its networks with industries.

4. AI as a Potential Solution: The Case of Written Technologies

• Main Point: The AI industry presents a potential avenue for economic growth and job creation in Busan, but requires a strong belief in AI's potential and a willingness to learn.
• Specific Details:
  • Written Technologies, an AI startup founded by Busan natives, creates AI platforms for about 5 million users.
  • The company's strategic analyst emphasizes the importance of believing in the "upside" of AI and having a high learning curve.
• Argument: Location is not a primary constraint for AI companies; the key is talent and the ability to make an impact.

5. The Incheon Model: A Contrasting Success Story

• Main Point: Incheon, located near Seoul, has experienced significant growth due to its designation as a free economic zone and strategic investments in logistics, biotech, and tourism.
• Specific Details:
  • Incheon was designated as South Korea's first free economic zone.
  • The city's population increased by 42,000 last year, reaching slightly more than 3 million.
  • Incheon ranked first in terms of birth rates, potentially linked to its generous welfare benefits and subsidized rental housing programs.
• Example: Incheon offers subsidized rental housing aimed at young people and newly married couples to alleviate housing costs and encourage childbirth.

6. Quality of Life vs. Career: A Difficult Choice

• Main Point: Young Koreans face a trade-off between pursuing career ambitions in Seoul and enjoying a better quality of life in regional cities like Busan.
• Specific Details:
  • Mr. Park, a Busan native working in AI in Seoul, acknowledges the higher cost of living and crowded conditions but considers it a worthwhile price for pursuing his ambitions.
  • Many young Koreans share this sentiment, prioritizing career opportunities over regional preferences.
• Data: More regions and provinces share only 11.8% of the land.

7. Busan's Efforts to Attract Talent Back

• Main Point: Busan is actively working to attract talent back to the city by improving job opportunities and promoting its unique advantages.
• Specific Details:
  • Some young people express a willingness to stay in Busan if job conditions and salaries are comparable to Seoul.
  • Some individuals who left Busan for career opportunities in Seoul have returned, citing the desire for a better work-life balance and the realization that "if you don't go down now, there won't be a chance."
• Argument: While salaries may be lower in Busan, the cost of living is also lower, making it possible to live comfortably.

8. Yeongdo Island: A Microcosm of Busan's Challenges and Hopes

• Main Point: Yeongdo Island, once a thriving shipbuilding hub, exemplifies Busan's challenges of population decline but also showcases the potential for revitalization through local initiatives.
• Specific Details:
  • Yeongdo is classified as a population extinction area, with the number of residents declining from a peak in the 1980s to 11,000 last year.
  • A Busan native opened a cafe in a former warehouse, aiming to create a space that reflects the authentic, local character of Busan.
• Quote: "It felt like the real Busan," says the cafe owner, emphasizing the contrast with touristy areas like Haeundae and Gwangalli.
• Argument: Creating spaces and businesses that offer value and opportunity can attract people back to declining areas.

9. Addressing the Job Market Mismatch

• Main Point: A significant mismatch exists between the jobs available in Busan and the skills and perceptions of young people, which needs to be addressed through better information and awareness.
• Argument: The mismatch is often due to a lack of awareness rather than a lack of objective opportunities.
• Perspective: Local businesses need to promote themselves and the opportunities they offer to attract young talent.

10. Conclusion: A Fight for Survival

• Main Point: Busan faces a critical challenge in reversing its population decline and revitalizing its economy, requiring a concerted effort from the government, universities, businesses, and residents.
• Synthesis: The city must leverage its strengths, such as its unique culture and potential in emerging industries like AI, while addressing the underlying issues of job scarcity and regional disparity. The success of Busan's efforts will determine whether it can retain its status as South Korea's second-largest city and secure a sustainable future.