Is Russia stockpiling weapons to overwhelm Ukraine’s defense at one go? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Massive Overnight Attack on Kyiv: Russia's large-scale aerial assault using hundreds of drones and missiles.
• Air Defense Systems: Crucial for Ukraine to intercept incoming threats, with a specific need for Patriot systems and interceptors.
• Russian Tactics: Employing a combination of decoy drones and real munitions to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses.
• Ukrainian Counterattacks: Strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, including oil terminals and refineries.
• Long-Range Missiles: Western-supplied (Storm Shadow, SCALP) and Ukrainian-developed (Neptune, Flamingo) missiles used for deep strikes.
• Civilian Infrastructure Vulnerability: Russia's targeting of energy grids and heating systems, particularly as winter approaches.
• International Aid: Germany's commitment to providing significant financial and military support to Ukraine.
• Frontline Stability: Concerns about Russian advances in key areas like Prosovk, Minorad, and Zaporizhzhia.

Russian Aerial Assault on Kyiv

On Thursday night into Friday morning, Russia launched a significant overnight attack on Kyiv, deploying hundreds of drones and at least 18 missiles. This strike, described as the largest on the Ukrainian capital in nearly three weeks, resulted in damage to multiple residential buildings and casualties, with emergency services reporting deaths and injuries. Ukrainian authorities reiterated their appeals to allies for increased air defense systems.

Details of the Attack:

• Scale: Over 400 drones and 18 missiles were fired.
• Impact: Destruction of buildings and loss of life. One witness described a scene where "there were no walls. Everything had collapsed. Nothing was left." Another narrowly escaped, reporting hearing ringing in her ears and seeing her neighbor's wall gone and flames erupting from her front door.
• Targeting: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy characterized the attack as "deliberately calculated" to inflict maximum harm on civilians and infrastructure, a claim Moscow denies.

Ukrainian Air Defense and Russian Strategy

The effectiveness of Ukrainian air defenses is a critical factor in mitigating Russian attacks. Military analyst Marina Miron from King's College London explained that Russia's strategy involves stockpiling drones and missiles to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.

Russian Tactics Explained:

• Overwhelming Defenses: Russia combines decoy drones (potentially made of materials like styrofoam with similar radar signatures to real munitions) with actual loitering munitions and missiles. This tactic aims to exhaust Ukrainian air defense systems, increasing the likelihood that more expensive missiles reach their intended targets.
• Production Capacity: Miron noted that growing Russian production capacity allows for these larger-scale, combined attacks.
• Ukrainian Needs: Ukraine requires a diverse range of air defense systems, including short-to-medium range systems like Germany's IRIS-T, as well as the Patriot system. The limited coverage of a single Patriot radar battery necessitates multiple units to protect a 360-degree area.
• Cost of Defense: The use of expensive interceptor missiles, such as those for Patriot systems, against relatively cheap decoy drones ($10,000) makes defending critical infrastructure a costly endeavor for Ukraine. This raises questions about more efficient methods for countering drone barrages.

Frontline Situation in Ukraine

Beyond aerial attacks, the ground situation remains a concern.

• Key Hotspots: Problems are concentrated around Prosovk and Minorad, where Ukrainian forces are attempting to create a corridor for troop withdrawal amidst tightening Russian encirclement.
• Other Worrying Areas: Ukrainian MPs have also highlighted concerns in the Velyka Novosilka region of Zaporizhzhia, where Russian forces have captured several settlements. Russian advances in the Dnipropetrovsk region have also been confirmed by the Ukrainian side.
• Deteriorating Defensive Line: The defensive line in the Donbas for Ukrainian troops is described as becoming "very shaky."

International Support and German Aid

The ability of Ukraine to defend itself is heavily reliant on continued support from its partners. Germany has pledged significant financial aid.

German Commitment:

• Defense Minister's Statement: Germany's Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated that Germany is prepared to "continue to take the lead in supporting Ukraine."
• Approved Aid: The German Parliament approved a proposal to expand aid to Ukraine, bringing the total to over 11.5 billion euros for the coming year, an increase of 3 billion euros from the original plan, with the additional funds dedicated to military aid.

Challenges with German Aid Delivery:

• Sources of Aid: Aid comes from various sources: decommissioned Bundeswehr equipment, Ukrainian purchases of US weaponry, and German production.
• Quality Concerns: The quality of delivered equipment, such as Leopard tanks, has been criticized by the Ukrainian armed forces.
• Timeline Issues: Delivery timelines for promised systems, like IRIS-T air defenses and interceptor missiles, have not always been met, leading to delays in Ukraine receiving complete systems.
• Equipment Quantity vs. Cost: Despite substantial financial pledges, the high cost of modern military equipment means that the amount of actual hardware Ukraine receives may not match its needs.

Ukrainian Counterattacks on Russian Infrastructure

While Ukraine's infrastructure faced significant damage, Kyiv has also intensified its counterattacks on energy facilities within Russia.

Attacks on Oil Infrastructure:

• Novorossiysk Port City: Ukraine carried out drone strikes on the Russian port city of Novorossiysk, reportedly damaging an oil terminal. Videos on social media showed the aftermath.
• Impact on Russian Exports: These attacks on oil refineries, terminals, and fuel depots are impacting Russia's ability to function and export products.
• Refining Capacity: Approximately 17% of Ukraine's oil refining capacity is now challenged or under threat.
• Global Oil Prices: An attack on the Novorossiysk terminal resulted in a 2% increase in oil prices, demonstrating a potential global impact.

Weapons Used by Ukraine:

• Western Missiles: Ukraine has utilized high-precision missiles like the British Storm Shadow and French SCALP, capable of deep strikes (around 155 miles).
• Ukrainian-Developed Systems:
  • Neptune: Originally an anti-ship missile, it has been adapted for potential use against oil terminals.
  • Flamingo: A developing missile system with a range of up to 600 miles, capable of hitting targets deep behind enemy lines.
• Drones: While slower and carrying lower explosive payloads, drones are effective for targeting infrastructure like pumping stations (e.g., on the Druzhba pipeline).
• Sabotage: Infiltrators operating inside Russia can also carry out sabotage and explosive operations, prompting Russia to deploy reserves to protect its strategic energy infrastructure.

Kyiv's Vulnerability and Winter Concerns

The attacks on Kyiv have raised concerns about the city's vulnerability, particularly with winter approaching.

Impact on Civilian Infrastructure:

• Energy Grid: Russia has a history of targeting Ukraine's energy grid, leading to widespread power outages.
• Heating Supply: Recent attacks have also targeted the heating supply, which relies on centralized hot water systems in large apartment blocks. Repairing these systems can be difficult, and freezing temperatures could necessitate starting repairs from scratch.
• Russian Intent: Analysts suggest Russia is intensifying these attacks to create civilian collapse, potentially pressuring Ukrainian voters to seek a deal on Russia's terms.

Broader Attacks:

• Beyond Kyiv: Attacks have extended beyond the Kyiv region, with reports of drone strikes on a market near Odesa and a hypersonic missile strike near Sumy. The use of a rare, high-tech weapon like a hypersonic missile against a seemingly minor target in Sumy remains unclear.
• Defense Limitations: Despite effective use of provided equipment, Ukraine's defenses are not infallible. Analysts note that Ukraine sometimes has to make difficult decisions and allow missiles to pass due to resource limitations.

Conclusion

The transcript details a significant escalation in Russian aerial attacks on Kyiv, highlighting the strain on Ukrainian air defenses and the critical need for continued international support, particularly in the form of advanced air defense systems and interceptor missiles. Simultaneously, Ukraine is demonstrating its capacity for strategic counterattacks on Russian energy infrastructure, impacting global markets. The ongoing conflict underscores the complex interplay of military tactics, international aid, and the resilience of civilian populations facing prolonged warfare, especially with the looming threat of winter.