Is Pakistan’s Population Growing Faster Than It Can Handle? | Insight

Key Concepts

• Fertility Rate: The average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime. Pakistan's rate is 3.6 births per woman, significantly above the global average of 2.4 and the replacement rate of 2.1.
• Replacement Fertility Rate (2.1): The average number of children a woman needs to have to replace herself and her partner, ensuring a stable population without migration.
• Stunting: Impaired growth and development that children experience from poor nutrition, repeated infection, and inadequate psychosocial stimulation. 40% of Pakistani children are stunted.
• Tawazin (Balance): An Islamic concept emphasized by the Council of Islamic Ideology, referring to the necessary balance between resources and population growth.
• Demographic Dividend: The economic growth potential that can result from shifts in a population's age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population (15 to 64) is larger than the non-working-age share. In Pakistan, this is currently a source of frustration due to lack of opportunities.
• Indus Waters Treaty (1960): A water-sharing agreement between India and Pakistan governing the six rivers of the Indus River System.
• IMF Program Elements: Austerity measures typically imposed by the International Monetary Fund, including tight monetary policy (high interest rates), tight fiscal policy (expenditure cuts, aggressive taxation), market-based exchange rates (devaluation), and raising utility prices.
• Export-Led Development Strategy: An economic strategy aiming to achieve economic growth by increasing exports.
• 18th Constitutional Amendment (2010): A significant amendment in Pakistan that devolved substantial powers from the federal government to the provinces, including control over health, social services, and education.
• Udan (Flight): The name of Pakistan's economic reform plan launched in late 2024.

Pakistan's Population Boom: A Looming Crisis

Pakistan is the fifth most populous country on Earth, with an estimated 250-255 million people, adding approximately 4 million more annually. This rapid population growth, characterized by a high fertility rate of 3.6 births per woman (compared to the global average of 2.4 and replacement rate of 2.1), poses the "biggest challenge to Pakistan's development." The country's capacity to sustain its population is being outstripped, leading to severe pressures on resources, healthcare, education, urbanization, and climate change resilience.

Socio-Cultural and Policy Factors Influencing Fertility

The high fertility rate is influenced by several factors:

• Economic Incentives: Children are often seen as "more hands to work" and a "pension scheme" for parents in old age.
• Stalled Decline: While fertility rates declined from 6 births per woman in 1994 to 3.8 in 2010 due to rising female education, family planning awareness, delayed marriage, and higher living costs, this decline has stalled. Stagnant per capita income, female secondary education, and infant mortality rates are cited as reasons.
• Cultural and Religious Sensitivities: Conversations about family planning are deeply sensitive in Pakistan's conservative and patriarchal society. However, surveys suggest the religious factor is often exaggerated, with low female education and work participation (24%) being more significant. The Council of Islamic Ideology has also supported family planning for "tawazin" (balance).
• Early Marriage: 18% of girls in Pakistan marry before age 18 (over 20 million women), leading to earlier childbearing and longer exposure to pregnancy. Their education is often cut short, limiting reproductive health knowledge.
• Low Contraceptive Use: Only about a quarter of married women use modern contraceptives, far below the global average, partly due to lack of awareness about service availability.
• Government Policy Disincentives: The distribution of national resources (financial, parliamentary seats, government jobs, professional college admissions via quota system) is overwhelmingly tied to provincial population numbers. This creates "no real incentive for any province to control population" as it would reduce their share.

Food Security and Agriculture

Pakistan's rapidly growing population faces a fundamental challenge in feeding its increasing numbers.

• Global Hunger Index: Pakistan ranked 102nd in 2023 and 106th in 2025 out of 123 countries.
• Poverty and Food Expenditure: Around a quarter of the country lives below the national poverty line. Poor households spend roughly 60% of their monthly expenditure on food.
• Staple Crops: Wheat is the main staple, accounting for over 70% of caloric intake. While wheat yields have increased (2.7 metric tons/hectare in 2015 to 3.2 metric tons/hectare in 2024), output varies significantly.
• Climate Change Impact: Pakistan's agriculture is highly climate-sensitive. The 2022 floods, the most devastating in recent history, damaged over a million hectares of farmland, pushing 8 million people into poverty and causing over $1 billion in losses. Pakistan is one of the top 10 climate-vulnerable countries despite contributing less than 1% to global greenhouse gases.
• Land Competition: Urban expansion, driven by housing policies that do not encourage vertical structures, encroaches on fertile agricultural land, particularly along the Indus River plain. The government is attempting to reverse this trend by promoting vertical growth and stricter land zoning laws.
• Dietary Imbalance and Imports: While cereals are abundant, vegetables, fruit, and edible oils are less so, indicating "mismanagement problem" and "policy failure." This has led to increasing food imports, reaching a record $8.14 billion in FY2024-25. This import dependency makes the population vulnerable to international price fluctuations.
• Purchasing Power and Inequality: Food inflation reached over 48% in May 2023. The issue is not just food availability but the "ability to purchase that food" due to high income inequality, with 1-1.5% of the population owning 60-70% of the country's wealth.
• Malnutrition: Around 20% of Pakistan's population is undernourished. For children under five, 18% suffer from acute malnutrition, and 40% are stunted, impairing growth and weakening immune systems. Undernourished mothers also impair fetal development.

Water Scarcity and Geopolitical Tensions

Pakistan is among the most water-stressed countries, predicted to face absolute water scarcity by 2035.

• Limited Storage: 80% of rain falls during monsoon, but only a fraction is stored, leading to rapidly declining per capita water availability.
• Indus Waters Treaty: Geopolitical strains complicate water issues. India's announcement in 2025 to potentially halt the Indus Waters Treaty and stop sharing water data is a major concern for Pakistan, which relies on the Indus basin for 95% of its renewable water resources. Pakistan views this as an existential threat.
• Water-Intensive Crops: Despite water stress, Pakistan continues to grow water-intensive cash crops like rice, sugarcane, and cotton, which are major sources of foreign exchange earnings.

Youth Unemployment and Economic Stagnation

Pakistan's young population (nearly 70% under 30) should be a demographic dividend but has become a source of frustration.

• High Unemployment: National unemployment is around 7% (a two-decade peak), with youth unemployment over 12%. Approximately 2 million young people enter the job market annually.
• Insufficient Economic Growth: Pakistan's economy grows at 2-3% annually, far below the 6-6.5% needed to absorb new entrants.
• Deterrents to Investment: Security challenges, cross-border tensions, and economic instability deter investments and job creation.
• IMF Austerity: Reliance on IMF bailout packages has led to austerity measures (tight monetary/fiscal policy, market-based exchange rates, utility price hikes) focused on "stabilization, not growth."
• Brain Drain: A 2023 UN report indicated 1 million skilled workers left Pakistan in the preceding three years, placing it among the top countries for talent outflow. Many head to Gulf states, but even this route is tightening due to concerns over crime and irregular migration.

Education Crisis

Rapid population growth also strains the education system.

• Overcrowded Classrooms: Public school classroom sizes average 30-40 students, far exceeding the global average of 24, leading to poor learning environments and discipline issues.
• Resource Scarcity: Schools lack sufficient facilities like computers.
• Stagnant Spending: Education spending remains below 2% of GDP, short of the constitutional target of 4%. Defense spending is prioritized due to regional instability.
• Out-of-School Children: Over 25 million children aged 5-16 are out of school, and 40% of the population is considered illiterate. This denies generations a "half a start in life."

Healthcare System Under Strain

Overcrowded hospitals are a clear sign of a system under pressure.

• Low Bed Availability: In 2020, Pakistan had 0.6 hospital beds per 1,000 people, significantly below the global average of 3.1.
• Resource Shortages: High fertility rates exacerbate challenges in vaccination, nutrition, bed occupancy, and human resource availability (doctors, nurses). The country is "choked with measles" and "pneumonia" in under-five children.

Government Initiatives and Future Outlook

The government is attempting to address these multifaceted challenges:

• Udan Pakistan: An economic reform plan launched in late 2024, aiming for economic growth (3.7% in Q1) while also prioritizing population growth reduction.
• Marriage Age Reform: Recent legislation raised the minimum age of marriage to 18 for both genders in Islamabad (and Sindh province since 2013), though it faces cultural and religious resistance in other provinces.
• National Youth Employment Policy: Aims to equip young people with modern skills for a digital economy and create large-scale job opportunities both domestically and abroad.
• Agricultural Reforms: Schemes offer financial support and low-interest loans to farmers. Investment in climate-resilient farming includes training 1,000 agricultural engineers in China for better seeds, mechanization, and efficient water use.
• Coordination Challenges: The 18th Constitutional Amendment (2010) devolved power to provinces, leading to fragmented social services. The federal government now aims to play a coordinating role rather than reversing devolution.

Conclusion

Pakistan's population boom presents a profound paradox: a young, growing population could be a powerful demographic dividend, but it currently places immense strain on limited resources, leading to crises in food, water, employment, education, and healthcare. The inability to provide for the current generation, coupled with continued rapid growth, creates a situation of "social unrest" and "violence type of attitude." International observers emphasize the urgency, stating that "Pakistan cannot develop if its population explosion is going to continue like this. It's not humanly possible." Addressing these challenges requires comprehensive fiscal, educational, and health policies to transform the country into a "symbol of hope" for its citizens.