Is NATO doing Enough? Breaking down Russia’s latest tests against the West |Berlin Briefing Podcast

Key Concepts

• Deterrence: Preventing aggression through credible threats and capabilities.
• Collective Failure: Shared responsibility among multiple actors for a negative outcome.
• Strategic Communication: Using communication to achieve strategic goals.
• Airspace Violation: Unauthorized entry into a country's airspace.
• Article 4 Consultation: A mechanism within NATO for allies to consult when their security is threatened.
• Rules of Engagement: Directives defining the circumstances and limitations under which forces may engage in combat.
• Grey Zone Warfare: Activities below the threshold of traditional warfare, such as cyberattacks and disinformation campaigns.
• Cognitive Warfare: Targeting an adversary's beliefs and perceptions to influence their behavior.
• Reassurance Force: A military force deployed to reassure allies and deter aggression.
• Mobilizing Immobilized Assets: Utilizing frozen assets of a country to provide financial assistance to another.
• Force Posture Review: An assessment of the deployment and readiness of military forces.

Analysis of NATO's Response and Past Hesitancy

• Stoltenberg's Regret: NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expressed regret that NATO allies didn't show more resolve in reacting to the invasion of Crimea in 2014. He suggested that a stronger response, including sending more arms to Ukraine, might have prevented Russia's full-scale invasion.
• US Hesitancy (2014-2022): Michael Carpenter acknowledged that the US was "far too timid" in the period between 2014 and the full-scale invasion. He argued that Ukraine should have been provided with deterrence capabilities, including ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and more air power.
• Trump Administration's Javelins: Carpenter credited the Trump administration with providing Javelin anti-tank missiles to Ukraine, which proved important in repelling the assault on Kyiv.
• Collective Failure: Carpenter emphasized that the failure to deter Russia was a "collective failure," not solely the responsibility of the United States. He urged European countries to introspect on what they could have done.
• Germany's "Snooze Button": Hanno Pevkur referenced German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius's statement that Germany, like others, "pressed the snooze button again" after the invasion of Crimea.

Estonia's Perspective and the Airspace Violation

• Early Support from Estonia: Pevkur highlighted that Estonia sent Javelin missiles to Ukraine before the full-scale invasion, which were credited with helping to prevent the collapse of Kyiv.
• Insufficient Firepower in 2022: Pevkur noted that Ukraine's counteroffensive in Kharkiv in 2022 was hampered by a lack of firepower and equipment, preventing them from retaking more territory.
• "Fight vs. Win": Pevkur stated that the West has only given Ukraine the means to "fight," but not to "win." He argued that more financial assistance is needed to enable Ukraine to produce more weapons.
• 0.25% GDP Initiative: Pevkur advocated for countries to give 0.25% of their GDP to Ukraine annually, which would amount to $100-120 billion. He noted that only about 0.1% of GDP has been given so far.
• NATO's Response to Airspace Violation: Pevkur defended NATO's response to the Russian airspace violation, stating that it was "very properly" handled. He explained that shooting down the aircraft was not warranted because there was no "acute threat" to Estonia's sovereignty.
• Article 4 Consultations: Estonia initiated Article 4 consultations and raised the issue at the UN Security Council following the airspace violation.
• Avoiding Russia's "Chess Game": Pevkur cautioned against playing the "chess game" that Russia is trying to initiate, arguing that it is a strategic communication trap. He advised focusing on sanctions and increased assistance to Ukraine.

Strategic Considerations and Russia's Broader War

• Tactical vs. Strategic: Carpenter urged a shift from tactical discussions about rules of engagement to a broader strategic understanding of Putin's actions.
• Russia's Covert War: Carpenter argued that Russia has been engaging in a war against Western countries for a long time, using various means, including political manipulation, information warfare, and sabotage. He referenced his 2016 speech titled "Russia's Covert War Against the West."
• Lack of NATO Consensus: Carpenter expressed concern that NATO has failed to develop a strategy on Russia due to a lack of consensus within the alliance.
• Putin's Provocations: Both Pevkur and Carpenter agreed that Putin is trying to provoke a crisis and test the West's resolve.
• Hybrid Warfare: Pevkur highlighted Russia's history of hybrid warfare, including the 2007 cyberattack against Estonia.
• Keeping it Below Article 5: Carpenter argued that Russia deliberately keeps its actions below the threshold of Article 5 (collective defense) because it knows it cannot go head-to-head with NATO.
• Effectiveness of Non-Kinetic Warfare: Carpenter emphasized that Russia can achieve significant success through information operations and cognitive warfare, potentially more than through traditional military means.
• Need for Collective Response: Carpenter called for a more concerted policy to counter Russia's actions, arguing that the West responds to "pinpricks" individually rather than aggregating the totality of Russia's actions.

Truthfulness and Public Perception

• Leaders Not Telling the Truth: Carpenter referenced a piece by Landsbergis arguing that too many Western leaders are not being truthful with their publics about the nature of the threat from Russia.
• "This is Our War": Pevkur highlighted Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk's statement that "this is our war," contrasting it with the more cautious language used by leaders further west.
• Security Guarantees from Ukraine: Pevkur rephrased the discussion about security guarantees for Ukraine, arguing that Ukraine is currently providing security guarantees to Europe.
• One Million Soldiers: Pevkur posed the question of whether the West wants to have one million trained, equipped, and battlefield-proven Ukrainian soldiers on their side or on the Russian side.

Active Defense and Mobilizing Assets

• Partnering in Active Defense: Volodymyr Zelenskyy proposed that NATO countries partner with Ukraine in active defense over Ukrainian skies.
• Existing Support: Pevkur noted that NATO countries are already providing equipment and support to secure Ukrainian skies.
• Learning from Ukraine: Pevkur emphasized the importance of bringing lessons learned from Ukraine back home to build resilience.
• Reassurance Force as a Fantasy: Carpenter criticized the focus on a reassurance force for Ukraine, calling it a "fantasy" because Putin would never agree to a ceasefire with European troops on the ground.
• Mobilizing Immobilized Assets: Carpenter argued that European leaders should focus on mobilizing the immobilized Russian assets in Western jurisdictions, which has been hindered by Belgium and France.
• Von der Leyen's Proposal: Carpenter mentioned Ursula von der Leyen's proposal for issuing a bond and using it as collateral for a loan to Ukraine, which would only be repaid if Russia paid reparations.

Targeting Russia's Income

• Oil Price Impact: Pevkur highlighted the impact of lowering the global oil price on Russia's income, calculating that a $1 decrease in price would reduce Russia's revenue by millions of dollars per day.
• Using Frozen Assets: Pevkur argued that frozen assets should be used immediately to pay reparations, regardless of potential legal challenges. He suggested that this would put pressure on the Russian elite and potentially lead to internal pressure on Putin.

The US Role and Future of NATO

• Trump Administration's Track Record: Carpenter pointed to the Trump administration's track record of providing zero assistance to Ukraine and imposing zero tariffs or sanctions on Russia.
• Galvanized European Action: Carpenter acknowledged that the lack of US support has galvanized European action.
• Trump's Impact on Defense Spending: Carpenter acknowledged that President Trump pushed NATO allies to increase their defense spending.
• Putin as a Catalyst: Carpenter argued that Vladimir Putin is the primary reason for increased European defense spending, as countries react to threats.
• Leadership and Unity: Carpenter emphasized the importance of leadership, unity, and solidarity within NATO to meet future challenges.

Conclusion

The discussion at the Warsaw Security Forum highlighted the need for a more comprehensive and strategic approach to dealing with Russia. Participants emphasized the importance of learning from past mistakes, increasing support for Ukraine, and addressing the broader challenges posed by Russia's hybrid warfare tactics. The debate also underscored the critical role of leadership and unity within NATO to effectively deter aggression and ensure European security. The future of US involvement and the mobilization of frozen Russian assets remain key factors in shaping the West's response.