Is lasting peace really possible? | DW Documentary

Key Concepts

Peace Process Design: The intentional and strategic planning and execution of steps to achieve peace.
Irreversibility: A point in a peace process where the momentum towards peace becomes so strong that it cannot be easily reversed.
Moment of Irreversibility: The specific event or action that triggers irreversibility, such as Nelson Mandela's release from prison.
Endgame: The desired final outcome or objective of a conflict resolution process.
Victimhood: A state of mind where individuals or groups focus on their suffering and blame others, hindering progress towards peace.
Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC): A mechanism for addressing past human rights abuses by allowing victims to share their stories and perpetrators to confess in exchange for conditional amnesty.
Coexistence: The ability of different groups to live together peacefully, even if full reconciliation has not been achieved.
Top-Down and Bottom-Up Peacebuilding: A dual approach to peace that involves both high-level political agreements and grassroots community engagement.
Mediator: A neutral third party who facilitates negotiations between conflicting parties.
Back Channel: Secret communication lines used in negotiations to bypass formal, public channels.
Compromise: The act of making concessions to reach an agreement.
Reintegration: The process of helping former combatants transition back into civilian life.

Summary

This transcript explores the complexities and challenges of achieving peace in various protracted conflicts, drawing on case studies from Colombia, South Africa, and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, as well as reflections on Afghanistan. The central argument is that peace is not merely the absence of war but a deliberate, difficult, and ongoing process requiring vision, courage, patience, and a fundamental shift in perspective.

The Nature of Peace and Conflict

The video begins by challenging conventional notions of peace, stating, "You'd never make peace with your friends. You make peace with your enemies." This highlights that peace is about overcoming adversarial relationships. The inherent nature of war is described as a cycle of retaliation where "neither of us won the war," leading nowhere and being unsustainable. A political solution is presented as the only viable path forward.

Case Study: Colombia - The FARC Conflict

The Colombian conflict, a political struggle rooted in issues like insufficient education, unemployment, and land reform, raged for over 50 years, resulting in at least 450,000 deaths and displacing over 7 million people. President Santos's administration, despite predecessors failing to negotiate with the FARC (Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia), a Marxist Leninist anti-imperialist guerrilla group, embarked on a peace process. This decision was influenced by a conversation with Nelson Mandela, who emphasized the necessity of peace for Colombia's progress. The speaker, having commanded the military as Minister of National Defense, adopted a "hawk" persona but later committed to peace.

Peace Process Design: The speaker emphasizes the importance of "peace process design," likening it to building a house, but a dynamic one with elements in flux. This involves laying a solid groundwork and building upon it, driven by a clear vision. Peacebuilding is acknowledged as fraught with rejection, risk, and opportunity.

Negotiation Methodology:

Secret Channel: A crucial element was establishing a secret "back channel" directly with the FARC leadership, bypassing public scrutiny and potential scandals. Communication was initially through letters, without internet or telephones.
Agenda Setting: This secret phase allowed for the creation of an agenda outlining discussion topics.
Incremental Process: A six-month design phase focused on an incremental process with guarantees for both sides, culminating in a framework agreement.
Direct, Secret, Abroad Negotiations: Negotiations were held directly, without mediators, in secret, and abroad, with Havana, Cuba, and Norway facilitating.
Language Shift: A conscious effort was made to change the language used, avoiding terms like "terrorists" or "fascists" and focusing on future-oriented discussions rather than dwelling on the past.
Internal Negotiations: The transcript notes that internal negotiations within delegations can be tougher than with the enemy, highlighting the tension and differing perspectives.
Compromise and Give and Take: Peace negotiations are fundamentally about compromise, not getting everything one wants.
Day After Peace Agreement: The speaker stresses that the "day after the peace agreement" is more important than the negotiation itself, focusing on reintegration and reconciliation.

Reintegration and Reconciliation:

Reparations: Victims often sought more than monetary compensation, desiring acknowledgment and justice for their losses.
Truth Commission: Colombia established a truth commission to acknowledge guilt and address crimes committed by all parties.
Promoting Coexistence: Instead of the imposing term "reconciliation," the focus was on "promoting coexistence."
Economic Sustainability: Ensuring former combatants have viable economic alternatives to criminal activities is crucial for sustainable peace.
Tierra Grata: A village established to reintegrate former guerrilla fighters, providing them with a new civilian life through government promises of finances, protection, education, and land. However, many promises remain unfulfilled, and former guerrillas face ongoing threats.

Case Study: South Africa - The End of Apartheid

South Africa's struggle against apartheid involved systemic racial segregation and discrimination. International and domestic pressure mounted, met with violent state repression. The conflict seemed intractable, a "frozen conflict that could go on forever."

Key Figures and Moments:

Cyril Ramaphosa: Founder of the National Union of Mine Workers, a key figure in the anti-apartheid movement.
Willem de Klerk: Became president in 1989 and played a crucial role in initiating reforms.
Nelson Mandela: Released from prison in February 1990 after nearly three decades, becoming a global icon. His release was seen as the "moment of irreversibility."

Negotiation Dynamics:

Visionary Leaders: The importance of leaders with vision on both sides was highlighted, including de Klerk's courage in his own way.
Uncertainty and Hope: Mandela's release brought excitement but also uncertainty about his approach.
Leverage and Anger: The ANC's temporary break from talks, fueled by anger and disappointment, was used as leverage by Nelson Mandela to move the process forward.
Memorandum of Understanding: This document "catapulted the negotiations to another level."
Talking as a Weapon: "The best and most powerful weapon there is is to sit down and talk." Talking is seen as the beginning of trust and essential for understanding each other's positions.

Nationbuilding Through Symbolism:

Rugby World Cup 1995: Nelson Mandela's symbolic embrace of rugby, previously seen as the sport of the oppressor, helped unite the nation and foster a sense of shared identity. This demonstrates how shared passions can contribute to peace.

Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC):

Conditional Amnesty: A compromise was reached where perpetrators of gross human rights violations could receive amnesty if they told the truth.
Victims and Perpetrators Meeting: Public hearings allowed victims to share their stories and perpetrators to confess, a process described as "surreal" and deeply painful.
Justice Beyond Criminal Accountability: Justice was redefined to include the ability to tell victims where their family members' remains were.
Moral Dilemma: The TRC raised moral questions about granting amnesty to those who committed brutal acts.
Restoring Humanity: The TRC aimed to understand and restore humanity by confronting the perpetrators' actions.

Case Study: Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is characterized by a century of bloodshed, with both sides claiming the same land. The transcript highlights a deep sense of "victimhood" on both sides, hindering progress.

Historical Context:

UN Resolution 181 (1947): Proposed partition of Palestine into Jewish and Arab states.
Establishment of Israel (1948): Triggered war and the displacement of 800,000 Palestinians (the Nakba).
Six-Day War (1967): Israel expanded its territory, occupying Gaza and the West Bank.

Key Peace Efforts and Challenges:

Camp David Accords (1978): Brokered by Jimmy Carter between Egypt and Israel, a first for an Arab neighbor. The idea of Palestinian autonomy was discussed.
Oslo Accords (1993): Secret negotiations led to mutual recognition between Israel and the PLO (Palestine Liberation Organization), with Yasser Arafat and Yitzhak Rabin playing key roles. This was a "breakthrough" moment, earning Rabin, Arafat, and Shimon Peres the Nobel Peace Prize.
Camp David Summit (2000): A summit between Yasser Arafat and Ehud Barak, mediated by President Clinton, aimed at a comprehensive political solution.
- Lack of Clear Endgame: A major failure was the lack of a clear endgame vision among the parties and the mediator.
- Mediator's Role: The US, as a mediator, was often tasked with delivering what parties couldn't achieve themselves.
- Arafat's Hesitation: Arafat feared a trap and was defensive, rejecting proposals without counterproposals.
- Key Issues: Discussions revolved around the establishment of a Palestinian state, Israeli settlements, Palestinian refugees, and the status of Jerusalem.
- Missed Opportunity: The summit concluded with regret, and a Palestinian uprising (Second Intifada) followed, resulting in significant casualties.
Roots Organization: A reconciliation organization near Jerusalem working to foster understanding between Israelis and Palestinians, even after recent escalations of violence. They emphasize the importance of meeting and recognizing the "other."
Forgiveness and Moral Courage: The transcript poses the question of whether Israelis, having forgiven the Germans, can extend forgiveness to Palestinians, and vice versa.

Case Study: Afghanistan - The Long War

Afghanistan's experience highlights the pitfalls of excluding key political actors and the consequences of external intervention without local ownership.

Key Events and Issues:

US Invasion (2001): Following the 9/11 attacks, the US invaded Afghanistan, leading to the retreat of the Taliban.
Exclusion of the Taliban: A "huge mistake" was the ban on speaking with the Taliban, which allowed them to gain importance outside the proposed settlements.
Loss of Ownership: Afghans felt a loss of ownership and leadership in their own affairs, expecting the US to "fix everything."
Missed Opportunities: Opportunities to conclude the conflict positively were missed, with generals advocating for continued military action.
US-Taliban Agreement (2020): A withdrawal agreement signed in Qatar, criticized for not involving Afghan representatives.
Lack of Mediator: Peace talks between the Afghan government and the Taliban were conducted without a mediator, raising questions about the UN's role.
Taliban's Advantage: The Taliban knew the US was leaving and that they were gaining ground, reducing their incentive to negotiate.
US Withdrawal (2021): President Biden announced the complete withdrawal, leading to the Taliban's return to Kabul and a sense of betrayal and abandonment among many Afghans.
"Lack of War is Not Peace": While the war ended, the absence of peace is evident in the restrictions on women's rights and education.

Overarching Themes and Principles of Peacebuilding

Victory Redefined: The concept of victory needs to be redefined beyond military defeat. It involves political strategy and the transformation of adversaries.
Patience and Humility: These are essential qualities for anyone involved in peace processes.
Empathy: "Always put yourself in the other person's shoes."
Continuous Dialogue: Peace requires continuous dialogue, reassessment, and adaptation.
Leadership: Peace requires leaders with vision, courage, and the ability to make unpopular decisions.
Compromise: Peace is about compromise, give and take, and listening intently.
Hope: Hope is a powerful motivator, and solutions exist for even the most entrenched conflicts.
The Role of the Mediator: Mediators act as "grease" to keep the machinery of negotiation working, but parties must ultimately take ownership of their peace process. Mediators should help parties identify "must-haves" rather than "never-this."
Selling the Agreement: Helping parties to "sell" the agreement back home is a fundamental element of successful peace negotiations.
The Power of Words: Diplomacy is about words and the power of persuasion.

Conclusion

The transcript powerfully argues that peace is an arduous but achievable endeavor. It is not a singular event but a continuous process of negotiation, compromise, and reconciliation. The case studies illustrate that while conflicts have unique origins, common denominators for peacebuilding exist: visionary leadership, a willingness to engage with enemies, a shift in language and perspective, and a commitment to both top-down political agreements and bottom-up community healing. The ultimate takeaway is that solutions are embedded within conflicts, and with sufficient courage, patience, and a focus on shared humanity, even the most intractable conflicts can be transformed.