Is Keir Starmer’s leadership in question? | BBC Newscast

Key Concepts

• Off-the-record briefings: A journalistic convention where sources provide information to journalists with the understanding that their identity will not be revealed.
• Westminster shenanigans: Refers to the political maneuvering, gossip, and behind-the-scenes dealings within the UK Parliament.
• Defiance in leadership challenges: A political stance where a leader indicates they will not step down easily and will contest any challenge to their position.
• "Pitch rolling": A cricket metaphor used in political journalism to describe the practice of preparing the ground and managing expectations for upcoming announcements, particularly budgets.
• OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility): An independent body that provides economic forecasts and analysis to the UK government.
• Manifesto: A public declaration of the principles and intentions of a political party or candidate.
• Bond markets: Financial markets where government and corporate bonds are traded, influencing interest rates and government borrowing costs.
• "Lightning rod": A person or thing that attracts criticism or controversy.

The "Gear Star" Situation and Westminster Briefings

The episode delves into a recent political event in Westminster, characterized by coordinated briefings to journalists that aimed to communicate Prime Minister's defiance in the face of potential leadership challenges. The discussion highlights the journalistic convention of "off-the-record" conversations, where sources provide information without being named, a practice deemed essential for understanding the nuances of political maneuvering.

Key Points:

• Coordinated Briefings: Multiple news outlets, including The Times, The Guardian, and Bloomberg, published similar stories around the same time, suggesting a proactive and coordinated effort to disseminate information.
• Prime Minister's Defiance: The core message of these briefings was that the Prime Minister would not be easily persuaded to resign and would contest any leadership challenge, preventing a potentially smooth succession. This was framed as a desire to avoid giving any single individual an easy path to leadership.
• West Streeting as a Focus: The briefings also featured specific references to Wes Streeting, the Health Secretary, and speculation about his potential involvement in plotting or campaigning for leadership.
• Government's Reaction: The government, particularly those around the Prime Minister, were reportedly taken aback by the scale of the headlines generated. This led to a period of "mudslinging" and subsequent "desperate attempts to hose the whole thing down."
• Symptomatic of Vulnerability: The situation is presented as symptomatic of a Prime Minister and a government that are perceived as vulnerable, and aware of this vulnerability.

Supporting Evidence/Details:

• The analogy of "shade of journalism" by Andrew Marr is used to explain the necessity of off-the-record conversations in maintaining relationships and functioning in professional and personal life.
• The speaker notes that 90-95% of their conversations in this job are off the record, and that relying solely on on-the-record information would provide a "partial sense" of what is happening.
• The timing of the stories across different outlets indicated a deliberate release of information.
• A government source's "roll of the eyes" reaction to the story is mentioned, suggesting awareness and perhaps frustration.

The Backfire of Briefings and Wes Streeting's Response

The coordinated briefings, intended to project strength and manage potential challenges, appear to have backfired, particularly concerning the focus on Wes Streeting.

Key Points:

• Legitimized Speculation: The simultaneous landing of these stories "completely legitimized leadership speculation."
• Blame on Chief of Staff: Despite denials, the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, Morgan McSweeney, was widely blamed within the Labour Party for the briefings against Wes Streeting, seen as a "massive strategic error."
• Wes Streeting's Broadcast Round: Streeting's scheduled appearance on morning broadcasts, which he was expected to do, became a crucial moment. He is described as having "had them on toast," skillfully professing loyalty while subtly criticizing the toxic briefing culture from Number 10 and calling for accountability.
• Shift in Narrative: The story shifted from "what has West Streeting been plotting?" to "does the prime minister's chief of staff need to go?" and "did Number 10 sanction this?" The situation became messy and backfired on the government.

Supporting Evidence/Details:

• The New Statesman's headline asking if Keir Starmer realizes his trouble is cited as an example of the public gaze turning to leadership speculation.
• One person's description of Streeting's performance: "he sort of professed his loyalty to the prime minister and made lots of quite good traitors references, insisting that he was, you know, this was a mad conspiracy theory. Lots of kind of good cultural references and jokes, but then actually he kind of stuck the knife in."
• Streeting's statement that the Prime Minister needs to fire whoever is responsible for the toxic culture briefing from Number 10.
• Lucy Powell, the new deputy leader of the Labour Party, is mentioned as being "completely right" in her assessment.

The Bond Market Rationale and its Effectiveness

A rationale presented for the Prime Minister's continued leadership was the potential negative reaction of bond markets to a change, suggesting that a replacement might lead to increased government borrowing costs.

Key Points:

• Market Stability Argument: Allies of Keir Starmer argued that bond markets would react negatively to a leadership change, fearing increased spending and a lack of fiscal control by a successor. This was presented as a reason to maintain the current "prime minister and chancellor duet."
• Historical Precedent: A similar argument was used against Andy Burnham previously.
• Questionable Effectiveness: The effectiveness of this argument is questioned, as bond yields reportedly went down on the day after the events, suggesting markets may not have taken the threat seriously or were unconcerned about a potential change.
• Potential for Leftward Shift: The argument posits that a leadership contest might lead candidates to "tack left," potentially suggesting a more liberal approach to borrowing, which could spook markets.

Supporting Evidence/Details:

• The analogy of James Carville wanting to be reincarnated as a bond trader to have "actual power" is used to illustrate the perceived influence of bond markets.
• The observation that bond yields went down on the day after the events.
• The argument that a contest might lead to candidates suggesting a "more liberal" approach to borrowing, referencing Andy Burnham's past arguments.

The "Hartley Moment" and Strategic Intent

The discussion explores whether the recent events were a calculated move to prevent an immediate leadership challenge or a strategic blunder.

Key Points:

• Fear of Short-Term Threat: One theory suggests that the briefings were motivated by a fear of a short-term threat to the Prime Minister, possibly after the budget, and that these briefings were an attempt to preempt such a challenge.
• Impact on Streeting's Ambitions: The events are analyzed for their potential impact on Wes Streeting's future leadership aspirations, with some suggesting it might make it harder for him to challenge the Prime Minister later, while others believe it could embolden him.
• Keeleby By-election Context: Wes Streeting's comparison of the Keeleby by-election loss to Labour losing the Hartlepool by-election under Boris Johnson (a moment when Keir Starmer reportedly considered resigning) is highlighted as a potentially unhelpful statement.
• Specific Plan Allegations: There are allegations that specific MPs informed Number 10 of a "very specific plan" for Wes Streeting to have 50 ministers ready to resign after the budget. However, journalists present at Westminster claim not to have been aware of such a specific plan, raising questions about the certainty of Number 10's intelligence.
• "Hartley Moment" Reference: The briefing included a reference to Hartley, implying that the current situation was "not yet a Hartley moment," meaning the Prime Minister would not consider walking away.
• Competence vs. Blundering: The question is raised whether the action was competent (knowing Streeting would be on the morning round, setting a trap) or incompetent (not realizing the implications). The consensus leans towards them knowing.

Supporting Evidence/Details:

• The theory that the briefings were a preemptive strike against a challenge post-budget.
• The mention of Wes Streeting's past direct answer to the question of whether he would like to be Prime Minister: "yes."
• The specific allegation of 50 ministers ready to resign, and the journalists' lack of awareness of this specific plan.
• The reference to "Hartley" in the briefing as a benchmark for the Prime Minister's resolve.

The Chancellor's Budget Preparations and "Pitch Rolling"

The discussion shifts to the Chancellor's proactive engagement in preparing the ground for the upcoming budget, a practice referred to as "pitch rolling."

Key Points:

• Expectations Management: The Chancellor's interviews and speeches in the weeks leading up to the budget are seen as an effort to manage expectations and prepare the public for potential tax rises.
• OBR's Economic Assessment: The OBR's assessment of the economy, revealing "more scars" and a "bigger permanent gap," is cited as a justification for potential fiscal measures.
• Manifesto Breach Dilemma: The government faces a dilemma regarding breaking the manifesto. The argument is that they might "break the letter but not the spirit" by implementing tax rises while claiming to protect working people.
• Likely Tax Rise Targets: The most likely targets for tax rises are identified as savers, landlords, some high-earning pensions, and some forms of expensive property.
• Narrative of Protection: The government's narrative is expected to be that past tax rises affected working people, and that in generating revenue for public services, they have tried to protect various groups as much as possible, given global events.

Supporting Evidence/Details:

• The term "pitch rolling" is explained as a cricket metaphor for preparing the ground.
• The OBR's projection of a "bigger permanent gap" in the economy.
• The potential for a tax rise on income tax while simultaneously lowering National Insurance, which is seen as a straightforward breach of the manifesto.
• The specific claim that the government will argue they have protected "working families" and "working people."

A Pen Portrait of Morgan McSweeney

A brief biographical sketch of Morgan McSweeney, the Prime Minister's Chief of Staff, is provided, highlighting his background and influence.

Key Points:

• Background: Irish, from County Cork, with experience working on building sites, a kibbutz in Israel, and a disillusionment with socially conservative Ireland.
• Early Career: Worked in admin at Labour HQ, became a local campaign organizer, fought the BNP and the hard left of the Labour Party.
• Political Shaping: His formative experiences fighting the BNP and the hard left have shaped his politics, leading to a lack of time for the Corbynite wing of the party.
• Chief of Staff Role: Became Chief of Staff to Keir Starmer, having planned for a while to pull Labour back from the Corbynites and change the party.
• Rivalry and Reputation: Had a rivalry with Sue Gray, whom he replaced. He is admired by some as a "master campaigner" and loathed by others, serving as a "lightning rod for frustration" with how the leader's office is run.
• "Boys Club" Culture: Accusations of a "boys club culture" in Number 10 are mentioned, with insiders often not distinguishing between McSweeney and his allies.
• Disproportionate Significance: McSweeney is considered to be of "outsized significance" to Keir Starmer's political project, and firing shots at him is seen as firing shots at Starmer himself. His absence would raise questions about the viability of the Starmer project.

Supporting Evidence/Details:

• His background working on building sites and a kibbutz.
• His work fighting the BNP and the hard left.
• His role in planning to move Labour away from Corbynism.
• The description of him as a "lightning rod for frustration."
• The argument that he is "disproportionately" significant to Keir Starmer.

Conclusion and Synthesis

The discussion highlights a period of significant political turbulence within the Labour Party, stemming from coordinated briefings that aimed to project strength but ultimately backfired. The events underscore the complexities of political communication, the power of journalistic conventions, and the internal dynamics of a party seeking to regain public trust. The focus on Wes Streeting's response and the subsequent scrutiny of Morgan McSweeney reveal underlying tensions and strategic calculations. The upcoming budget preparations, with their potential for manifesto breaches and tax rises, add another layer of complexity to the political landscape. The episode concludes by emphasizing the disproportionate influence of key figures like McSweeney on the leader's political project, suggesting that any pressure on him is inherently pressure on the leader himself.