Is it possible to take meaningful climate action without this measure? | DW News

Key Concepts

• COP 30: The United Nations climate change conference.
• Fossil Fuels: Coal, oil, and natural gas, major contributors to global warming.
• Phase Out: A gradual elimination of the use of fossil fuels.
• Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Gases that trap heat in the atmosphere, leading to global warming.
• 1.5 Degree Goal: The target set by the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
• Deforestation: The clearing of forests, which exacerbates climate change.
• Amazon Rainforest: Referred to as the "lungs of our planet," its protection is central to climate action.
• Paris Agreement: An international treaty on climate change adopted in 2015.
• Renewable Energy Economy: An economy based on energy sources that are naturally replenished, such as solar and wind power.
• Tropical Forest Forever Facility: A funding mechanism to incentivize forest protection.
• Indigenous Peoples: Groups with deep connections to land and often strong advocates for environmental protection.
• Climate Adaptation: Adjusting to actual or expected future climate.
• Tipping Point: A critical threshold beyond which a system reorganizes, often in a dramatic and irreversible way.

COP 30 Negotiations: Stalled Progress on Fossil Fuels and Rainforest Protection

The UN climate conference, COP 30, is facing critical final hours with significant disagreements hindering a comprehensive agreement. A key point of contention is the absence of any mention of fossil fuels in the latest draft proposal presented by Summit President Brazil. This omission, reportedly due to pressure from oil-producing nations, has drawn strong criticism from countries advocating for more ambitious climate action.

Fossil Fuel Phase-Out: A Central Demand

Colombia and the Netherlands are leading the charge for a clear commitment to phase out fossil fuels. Germany's Environment Minister, Karsten Schneider, emphasized that the current draft is "inadequate to halt and reverse global warming." He stated, "We support the Brazilian government's proposal to phase out fossil fuels. But the draft text... is inadequate to halt and reverse global warming. That's why we in the European Union jointly believe that we need more climate protection measures, clearer regulations for phasing out fossil fuels, and above all that the COP summit here in Belém must send a signal that protecting the rainforest is central to all this because the Amazon is the lungs of our planet."

Jennifer Morgan, a climate diplomat and former Special Climate Envoy of the German Federal Foreign Office, highlighted that a "roadmap to transition away from fossil fuels" has garnered significant support. She explained that the core issues at play are scaling up climate action to avoid greater temperature rise and keep the 1.5-degree goal alive, alongside a roadmap for deforestation and climate finance.

Obstacles to Agreement

The lack of a clear path forward, including the absence of the word "roadmap" in the draft, is a major concern. Negotiators are working to form coalitions, such as the European Union collaborating with small islands and Latin American countries, to incorporate stronger language into the text. Geopolitical challenges, including the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement under President Trump, are noted as complicating factors.

The "Arab group" and countries like Saudi Arabia, China, and India have expressed concerns and are reportedly more comfortable with less ambitious outcomes. There is a hope that countries like China will "rise to the occasion" to deliver a more ambitious result.

Public Concern and Economic Interdependence

Despite global concerns about the economy and war, polls indicate that people remain very concerned about climate change. Morgan argued that addressing climate change is intrinsically linked to economic and security interests, as a "renewable energy economy brings jobs, creates energy security, and stability to avoid conflicts."

Deforestation and Rainforest Protection

Protecting rainforests, particularly the Amazon, has been a significant priority at COP 30. Brazil has launched initiatives like the "Tropical Forest Forever Facility," which has secured $6.5 billion to incentivize sustainable forest use. Funding for marking indigenous lands is also a key initiative, recognizing the crucial role of indigenous peoples as protectors of the rainforest. While considered a "good COP for forests," there is still a desire for a potential roadmap to end deforestation by 2030.

Inclusion of Indigenous Peoples and Civil Society

A "very significant win" for COP 30 is the increased inclusion of indigenous peoples and local activists at the negotiating table. This "inclusive COP" has seen the presence of indigenous peoples and empowered civil society, with a "people's summit" actively holding governments accountable.

The Missing Roadmap and Its Implications

Julia Sardelli, reporting from Belém, explained that the absence of a fossil fuel phase-out roadmap in the draft is a "hot topic." Over 80 countries had signed a declaration pushing for its inclusion. The lack of a clear path, timeline, or stringent targets for transitioning away from fossil fuels is seen as unacceptable by many.

The primary blockers identified are "big oil producing countries" such as Saudi Arabia, other Gulf states, Iran, and potentially Russia. While COP 28 in Dubai saw a breakthrough with the inclusion of "transition away from fossil fuels" in the text, resistance has resurfaced. Developing countries are linking support for emission reductions with funding from developed nations for their green transition and adaptation.

Disappointment and the Risk of Failure

Natalie Untov, President of the Talanoa Institute, expressed "disappointment" on the final scheduled day of the conference, stating that the draft text is "very weak watered down" and will not put the world on track to avoid more than two degrees of warming. She believes that the absence of a fossil fuel phase-out will be regarded as a "major failure."

Untov highlighted that the issue is not just about the words but about setting a clear direction with clarity on timelines, responsibilities, and finance. She noted that over 80 countries are pushing for a deal, while over 80 others, including both producing and consuming nations, are resisting. The current situation points to producing countries being the main drivers of a "no deal" scenario.

Impact on the Amazon Rainforest

Untov warned that a weak agreement would have severe consequences for the Amazon rainforest, which is "very close to a tipping point." She stated that if global warming exceeds two degrees, the forest will not be resilient, potentially leading to "the death of the Amazon rainforest as we know it."

Climate Adaptation Finance

While the draft mentions adaptation finance, which is crucial for exposed countries, the details are lacking. The call to triple adaptation finance by 2030 is positive, but the figures and payers are unclear, with a potential lag of three years for details. Developing nations are calling for a better formulation of this aspect.