Is it likely that India will attack Pakistan in the coming days? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Potential Indian military action against Pakistan
• Kashmir conflict and recent attack on tourists
• India-Pakistan relations and historical hostilities
• Role of Pakistani deep state and ISI
• The Resistance Front (TRF) and its links to militant groups
• Nuclear-armed nations and escalation concerns
• Mediation prospects and international involvement
• China's role and Sino-Indian relations

1. Imminent Military Action:

• The Pakistani information minister's warning about potential Indian military action.
• Professor Bose believes some form of Indian military action against Pakistan has been "inevitable" since the attack near Bahawalpur last Tuesday.
• He fears that the Pakistani information minister is broadly right and that military action is "imminent" and a matter of days rather than weeks.

2. Reasons for Inevitability:

• Hardline Rhetoric: The Indian government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a "prisoner of its own hardline rhetoric and policies vis-à-vis Pakistan and on the Kashmir conflict."
• Modi's Image: Modi's "strongman image" as a tough leader is at stake.
• Narrative Punctured: The Modi government's narrative of "normalcy and peace restored in the Kashmir valley" has been "brutally punctured," creating a compulsion to "compensate or perhaps overcompensate" with military action.

3. Evidence and Pakistani Involvement:

• The Indian government claims to have evidence of Pakistan's involvement in the Kashmir attack.
• The Resistance Front (TRF), a "loose alliance of elements" from Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad, and Hizbul Mujahideen, claimed responsibility for the attack.
• Lashkar-e-Taiba has "close links" with the Pakistani deep state and the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence) for decades.
• Small mobile groups of guerillas, consisting of Pakistanis and local Kashmiris, have been operating in the region.
• Reports in the Indian media (unverified) suggest that one of the accused in the attack is a Pakistani national and former member of the Special Services Group (SSG), the specialist commando force of Pakistan.

4. Escalation Concerns and Mediation:

• The situation is "very alarming and grim" due to the nuclear capabilities of both nations.
• The United Nations is considered "irrelevant" to the Kashmir dispute.
• Iran has offered to mediate, but it is not seen as a "plausible proposition."
• The United States, under the Trump administration, has previously offered to mediate but was rejected by India.
• The Trump administration would likely not want an "uncontrolled military escalation" given ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza.

5. China's Role:

• China is a "longstanding ally of Pakistan" and is likely to provide "moral and diplomatic support" in the event of military escalation.
• This would strain the "delicate and fragile Sino-Indian relationship."

6. Triangular Conflict:

• Professor Bose argues that the Kashmir conflict should be viewed in "triangular terms" involving India, Pakistan, and China.

7. Notable Quotes:

• Professor Bose: "Some form of Indian military action against Pakistan has been inevitable since the attack near Baham last Tuesday."
• Professor Bose: "The Indian government headed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi is a prisoner of its own hardline rhetoric and policies vis-à-vis Pakistan and on the Kashmir conflict."

8. Technical Terms:

• ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence): Pakistan's covert operations agency.
• The Resistance Front (TRF): A loose alliance of militant groups including Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Muhammad, and Hizbul Mujahideen.
• Special Services Group (SSG): The specialist commando force of Pakistan.

9. Synthesis/Conclusion:

The situation between India and Pakistan is highly volatile following a recent attack in Kashmir. India may take military action against Pakistan due to internal political pressures and a desire to maintain a strong image. The involvement of Pakistani elements in the attack, through groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and potentially the ISI, exacerbates the situation. With limited prospects for effective mediation and the potential involvement of China, the risk of escalation between these two nuclear-armed nations is significant. The Kashmir conflict is increasingly viewed as a triangular dynamic involving India, Pakistan, and China.