Is Israel inching towards another regional war? | Inside Story

Key Concepts

• Ceasefire Violations: Israel's ongoing air strikes in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria, despite agreements to cease hostilities.
• Hezbollah Disarmament: The core of the Israeli-Lebanese ceasefire agreement, with significant debate and differing claims regarding its progress.
• Regional War Escalation: The potential for increased Israeli military actions to trigger a wider conflict in the Middle East.
• Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar's White House Visit: A significant diplomatic event signaling a potential shift in US-Syria relations and regional alignment.
• Abraham Accords: A US-brokered normalization agreement between Israel and several Arab nations, with aspirations to expand its reach.
• Axis of Resistance: A network of Iran-aligned groups (Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) that Israel views as a threat.
• Geopolitical Realignment: The potential for shifting alliances and strategies in the Middle East, with Syria playing a pivotal role.
• US Middle East Strategy: The Trump administration's focus on achieving peace, normalization, and stability in the region.

Summary

Escalating Israeli Military Actions and Regional Tensions

The Israeli military is intensifying its attacks on Lebanon, violating a year-long ceasefire. These actions are mirrored by similar breaches in Gaza and the occupation of Syrian territory. The lack of progress in disarming Hezbollah raises concerns about Israel's potential move towards another regional war. Recent Israeli air strikes in southern and eastern Lebanon have heightened fears of escalation. Israel claims these strikes target Hezbollah's military capabilities, aiming to prevent its rebuilding. However, Lebanon argues that disarmament is impossible as long as Israeli strikes continue.

Israel's military actions extend beyond Lebanon. The country is also bombing Gaza, violating an October ceasefire, and has conducted over a thousand air strikes in Syria since the fall of the Assad regime in December. This aggressive posture is juxtaposed with an upcoming visit by Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar to the White House, marking the first time a Syrian president has visited. The program explores how this meeting might impact regional sovereignty and whether Israel can sustain its near-daily attacks across the Middle East under the guise of security.

The Reality of the Ceasefire and Hezbollah's Disarmament

A report highlights the stark reality of the ceasefire with Israel: a wave of air strikes across southern Lebanon has resulted in casualties. These attacks occur almost daily, despite Israel's agreement to a ceasefire a year prior. Ordinary citizens are suffering from this "harsh environment." Israel asserts that Hezbollah is rearming and that its strikes target the group's military sites. Hezbollah, while committed to the ceasefire, has pledged self-defense if attacks persist.

The pattern of Israeli actions is similar in Gaza, where a ceasefire has not prevented Israeli forces from killing at least 240 Palestinians. An Israeli official stated their objective is to systematically eliminate Hamas pockets in areas under their control, striking both attackers and their organizations to protect troops and maintain supreme security responsibility.

The Israeli government perceives threats from multiple fronts, viewing Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis in Yemen, and other armed groups in Iraq and Syria as part of Iran's "axis of resistance."

The Syrian President's White House Visit and Regional Implications

US President Donald Trump's focus on achieving Middle East peace includes inviting Syrian President Ahmed al-Shar to the White House. Al-Shar, a former rebel commander, became president after overthrowing Bashar al-Assad in December, ending a protracted civil war. Since then, Israel has conducted over a thousand air strikes in southern Syria. However, there have also been engagements between Syria and Israel, with discussions on border and boundary issues, and de-escalation. This suggests a potential realignment in the Middle East. Syria's new government seeks the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the south, and President Trump aims for Syria to join the Abraham Accords. Ahead of Al-Shar's visit, the UN Security Council voted to remove sanctions against the Syrian president and his interior minister.

Expert Analysis on Hezbollah Disarmament and US Ultimatum

Nabil Huri, a former US diplomat, notes that while complete certainty about Hezbollah's disarmament lies with intelligence circles, public information suggests an estimated 90% disarmament south of the Litani River. He points to public reporting and videos of the Lebanese army taking over weaponry. Huri also cautions that Israeli sources are not unbiased due to political motivations, aiming to justify ongoing actions. Hezbollah has stated it is no longer militarily present south of the Litani but will not disarm north of it.

Haiko Vimman, project director for Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon at the International Crisis Group, confirms that the feeling in Beirut is one of constant threat, with the possibility of war being "just around the corner." He acknowledges reports of disarmament by the Lebanese army but also notes Israeli claims of stealthy rebuilding.

Harlon Omen, a senior advisor at the Atlantic Council, deems the US ultimatum for Lebanon to fully disarm Hezbollah by the end of 2025 unrealistic, especially given the Lebanese government's past inability to disarm Hamas over two decades. He suggests it might be a pressure tactic. Omen believes Hezbollah will not completely disarm and that Israel's pursuit of "absolute security" leads to "absolute inferiority" for others. He emphasizes the fragility of the peace arrangement and the potential for it to "implode." He also notes that Turkey's declaration of Benjamin Netanyahu as a war criminal could exacerbate relations.

Regarding the end of December if the ultimatum is not met, Omen anticipates "nothing" will change in terms of the peace efforts, but the situation remains precarious. He highlights the importance of the meeting between Al-Shar and Trump, questioning Al-Shar's true intentions.

Syria's Centrality in US Middle East Strategy

Nabil Huri explains that Syria is central to US interests and security concerns in the region, connecting Lebanon, Israel, and Jordan. He notes the rapid shift in US-Syria relations under the Biden administration and Trump's engagement with Al-Shar. Huri suggests that Al-Shar is "Washington and Tel Aviv's man in Damascus," implying close coordination on security matters, which he views as a form of normalization.

Haiko Vimman elaborates on what each side gains. Syria, under Al-Shar, seeks external legitimacy and has achieved significant relief from sanctions, with international recognition of his leadership as crucial for stability and foreign support. For Washington, particularly under Trump, stabilizing Syria is seen as essential for regional stability and a potential pathway to integrating Syria into the Abraham Accords, a significant achievement for Trump's legacy.

Harlon Omen reiterates that Syria is "the only game in town" for potential solutions. He points out Al-Shar's challenge of rebuilding a devastated country and the need for resources. For the White House, Al-Shar is critical for sustaining the Gaza ceasefire and reinforcing the Abraham Accords. He suggests that while the Saudi Crown Prince's visit is important for financial reasons, Syria is vital for broader regional stability. Omen describes the situation as "political nitroglycerin."

The Abraham Accords and Wider Normalization

Tom Barack, US Ambassador to Turkey and former Special Envoy to Lebanon, is quoted stating that "Abraham Accords for the entire region is the true north star." He believes that as Saudi Arabia moves, others will follow, and nations of the Levant may find alignment irresistible.

Nabil Huri identifies Iranian influence in Syria as a key concern for Washington and Tel Aviv, and its reduction is seen as a major accomplishment. He dismisses grand visions of regional peace financed by Saudi Arabia and executed by American contractors as unrealistic, given Syria's fragmentation and ongoing internal issues. He highlights the need for Syrian cooperation on issues like ISIS prisoners and the pursuit of individuals, which necessitates collaboration with Ahmed Al-Shar. Huri expresses doubt about the feasibility of American businesses investing in Syria given the risks.

Haiko Vimman observes a stark contrast between the external recognition Al-Shar has achieved and the internal challenges Syria faces. He suggests that Damascus needs to "put its house in order." Vimman finds it difficult to reconcile the optimistic visions of regional development with the harsh realities on the ground, particularly in Gaza, and the gap between these visions and the current situation. He describes the optimistic outlook as "pie in the sky."

Conclusion

The program concludes that while the US, under the Trump administration, is actively pursuing a strategy to reshape the Middle East towards peace and normalization, the region remains highly volatile. The escalating Israeli military actions, the complex issue of Hezbollah disarmament, and the potential for wider conflict are significant concerns. The upcoming visit of Syrian President Al-Shar to the White House represents a pivotal moment, potentially influencing regional alliances and the expansion of the Abraham Accords. However, deep-seated challenges, internal fragmentation in Syria, and the inherent fragility of the geopolitical landscape suggest that achieving lasting stability and peace remains a formidable task, with the situation described as "political nitroglycerin" that could explode at any moment.