Is ISIL on the verge of becoming a regional threat once again? | Inside Story

ISIL’s Potential Re-emergence: Transfer of Detainees & Regional Implications

Key Concepts:

• ISIL (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria/ISIS): A Salafi jihadist militant group and former self-proclaimed caliphate controlling territory in Iraq and Syria.
• SDF (Syrian Democratic Forces): A Kurdish-led, multi-ethnic alliance in Syria that fought against ISIL with US support.
• Al-Hol Camp: A large camp in Syria housing internally displaced persons and families of suspected ISIL fighters, notorious for poor conditions.
• SenCom: (Likely referring to the Security Cooperation Directorate) – A coordinating body for security matters, implied to be involved in the transfer of detainees.
• Zarqawi: Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the founder of al-Qaeda in Iraq, considered a precursor to ISIL.
• Breaking the Walls Campaign: ISIL’s strategy to liberate imprisoned members through coordinated attacks.
• Repatriation: The process of returning foreign nationals from Syria and Iraq to their home countries.

I. Historical Context & ISIL’s Rise and Fall

The discussion began by outlining ISIL’s trajectory, from its origins in al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) following the 2003 US invasion, through its peak in 2014-2017 controlling approximately 90,000 square kilometers spanning Syria and Iraq, to its territorial defeat in 2019 in Baguz. President Trump’s declaration of ISIL’s defeat led to the detention of fighters and their families in northeast Syria, managed by the SDF. Despite the loss of territory, ISIL’s ideology persists, with decentralized affiliates remaining active in the Middle East, Asia, and Africa. Colin Clark traced ISIL’s roots to Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, highlighting the group’s consistent reliance on sectarianism as a recruitment tool.

II. Recent Developments & US Prisoner Transfer to Iraq

Recent shifts in Syrian political dynamics, specifically the Syrian government (led by President al-Shara) regaining control of territory previously held by the SDF, prompted the US to transfer over 5,700 ISIL fighters from Syria to Iraq. This decision was driven by fears of a potential jailbreak and the release of thousands of fighters. The US coordinated this transfer with both the Syrian and Iraqi governments. Zidon Alanani emphasized that this move, while officially coordinated, is causing significant domestic political concerns within Iraq, particularly given the upcoming reshuffling of the Iraqi cabinet and potential changes in leadership.

III. Human Rights Concerns & Conditions of Detention

The transfer of detainees has raised serious concerns from human rights organizations, particularly Human Rights Watch. Sarah Sanbbar detailed the appalling conditions in Al-Hol camp, where families of ISIL fighters (many of whom are not accused of crimes) were held indefinitely without legal recourse, facing limited access to basic necessities. She highlighted the risk of torture and unfair trials for the transferred fighters in Iraq, referencing the systemic issues within the Iraqi justice system observed during the 2018-2019 counterterrorism trials, including sham trials with minimal due process and reliance on confessions obtained through torture. The US’s potential violation of the UN Convention Against Torture by transferring detainees to a country where they risk torture was also raised.

IV. Iraqi Perspective & Regional Implications

Zidon Alanani explained that the Iraqi government’s acceptance of the detainees is partly motivated by a desire to strengthen relations with the Syrian government and demonstrate cooperation with the US. However, this decision is met with anxiety within Iraq, given the recent history of ISIL’s control over Mosul and the ongoing political instability. He stressed that defeating ISIL requires a comprehensive approach encompassing institutional, cultural, societal, and economic reforms, not just military victories. Colin Clark noted that the US’s actions suggest a potential “rush for the exits” from Syria, with the closure of the Alto base and a possible withdrawal of troops. He warned that this could create a power vacuum and provide ISIL with an opportunity to regroup. The discussion also touched upon the dilemma of foreign nationals, particularly women and children, who are stranded in Syria with no country willing to accept them.

V. ISIL’s Future Threat & Global Reach

Colin Clark argued that ISIL is not “defeated” but rather a persistent threat that will continue to evolve and inspire attacks globally. He emphasized the group’s decentralized nature and active branches in various regions, including the Sahel, Horn of Africa, and Southeast Asia. He characterized the situation as a “waiting game” for ISIL, which will exploit any opportunities to regain strength. Zidon Alanani echoed this sentiment, stating that the transfer of detainees has increased concerns about a potential ISIL resurgence in both Iraq and Syria. Sarah Sanbbar highlighted the importance of addressing the root causes of radicalization and providing support for reintegration programs.

VI. Syrian Government’s Position & Ongoing Fight

The Syrian ambassador stated that the fight against ISIL is far from over, despite the government’s recent gains. He accused ISIL of recent attempts on President al-Shara’s life and acknowledged the challenge of dealing with foreign nationals, particularly women and children, who have no country willing to take them back. The Syrian government is now working with international allies as part of the international coalition to combat ISIL.

Notable Quotes:

• Colin Clark: “This isn't a new issue… stripping people of their citizenship they only have one option and that's to become a citizen of the Islamic state.”
• Sarah Sanbbar: “Iraq resumed executions on a concerning scale.”
• Colin Clark: “Insurgents win simply by not losing.”

Data & Statistics:

• 90,000 square kilometers: The area controlled by ISIL at its peak.
• 5,700+: The number of ISIL fighters transferred from Syria to Iraq.
• 28,000: The approximate number of people housed in Al-Hol camp (including ~6,000 foreigners) before recent withdrawals.

Conclusion:

The transfer of ISIL detainees from Syria to Iraq represents a complex and risky maneuver. While intended to prevent a potential jailbreak, it raises serious human rights concerns and could inadvertently contribute to ISIL’s resurgence. The situation underscores the need for a comprehensive, long-term strategy to address the root causes of extremism, promote regional cooperation, and ensure the humane treatment and rehabilitation of former ISIL fighters and their families. The threat posed by ISIL remains significant and requires sustained international attention and a nuanced approach that goes beyond military solutions.