Is Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei still alive? | DW News

Israel-Iran Conflict: Analysis of Recent Strikes and Regional Implications

Key Concepts:

• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Supreme Leader of Iran, central figure in the recent conflict escalation.
• Netanyahu’s Statement: Claims of Khamenei’s death and destruction of his compound, lacking confirmed evidence.
• Iranian Retaliation: Limited scope missile attacks on Israel and targeting of Gulf countries with drones.
• Regional Stability: Concerns about destabilization of the Gulf region, particularly impacting economies like Dubai.
• US-Israel Alliance: Perceived prioritization of Israeli interests by the US over Gulf state concerns.
• Regime Resilience: Iran’s institutional strength and capacity to withstand leadership attacks.
• Proxy Forces: Role of groups like Hezbollah, Houthis, and Hashd al-Shaabi in Iran’s regional strategy.
• Defense Shield: Israel’s air defense system, currently holding but with potential for breaches.

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Initial Strikes and Claims of Khamenei’s Death

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that coordinated strikes with the United States had resulted in the destruction of the compound of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and, according to him, his death. He also claimed that senior commanders and officials of Iran’s nuclear program were killed in these strikes. However, Netanyahu did not provide any evidence to support these assertions, and the status of Khamenei remains unconfirmed as of the time of the report. Netanyahu further called on the Iranian people to overthrow the “dictatorship,” framing the strikes as creating conditions for regime change.

Israeli Public Reaction and Ongoing Threats

DW correspondent Tanya Kmer reported that Israelis have been frequently entering bomb shelters due to missile alerts throughout the day, but the Iranian missile retaliation has been, at least initially, limited in scope. Injuries have been minor, primarily from people running for shelter or shrapnel. Israel’s defense shield appears to be functioning, but the possibility of ballistic missiles breaching the defenses remains. Netanyahu warned Israelis to brace for a prolonged campaign, stating it would continue “as long as needed.” This message extends to other regional actors, anticipating further Iranian responses.

Iran’s Regime Resilience and Leadership Succession

Visiting Professor Madawi al-Rashid of the London School of Economics and Political Science addressed the implications of a confirmed death of Khamenei. While acknowledging it would be a blow to Iran, she emphasized the regime’s institutional strength and capacity to quickly replace leadership. She stated, “The institutions that the Iranians have will probably survive at least for some time as they are probably capable of producing yet another leader very quickly who would replace him and take control of government.” She highlighted that Iran is not comparable to regimes like Venezuela or Iraq in terms of vulnerability, having spent 47 years strengthening its institutions to absorb shocks.

Iranian Retaliation Strategy: Beyond Ballistic Missiles

Al-Rashid explained that Iran’s retaliation strategy extends beyond ballistic missiles. She noted that suppressing internal uprisings doesn’t require such weaponry, and Iran has focused on targeting American interests and Gulf countries hosting military bases. She specifically mentioned drone attacks targeting Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, the UAE, and Qatar, causing disruption to civilian aviation, including in Dubai, a major global business hub. She stated, “Iran has its own tentacles and it’s capable of destabilizing many countries that are regarded as hosting hostile forces whether they are Israeli or American.”

Gulf State Concerns and US-Israel Alignment

The discussion highlighted the frustration of Gulf states, who previously attempted to dissuade the US from striking Iran, believing it would destabilize the region. Al-Rashid argued that the Trump administration, and seemingly the current US policy, prioritizes the interests of Israel under Netanyahu over the concerns of Gulf countries. She stated, “Trump has actually proven that he is an ally of Netanyahu and he supports the interest of Israel, not the interest of the Gulf countries.” She pointed out that Iran has consistently framed its attacks as responses to Israeli aggression, giving the US justification to align with Israel.

Historical Parallels and Regional Instability

Al-Rashid drew parallels to the 1991 Iraq War, where the US encouraged an uprising against Saddam Hussein but then abandoned the Iraqi people, leading to years of civil war. She warned against repeating this pattern, stating that the current situation involves a “messy region with messy superpower leadership that has put all its in one basket and that is the basket of Israel.” She expressed concern about the potential for further escalation and the risk of dragging Europe into the conflict.

Notable Quotes:

• Benjamin Netanyahu: (Regarding Khamenei) “He was no more in his words and that he was killed in these opening strikes.”
• Madawi al-Rashid: “They’ve created many institutions…in order to absorb any shocks.”
• Madawi al-Rashid: “Trump has actually proven that he is an ally of Netanyahu and he supports the interest of Israel, not the interest of the Gulf countries.”

Conclusion:

The recent strikes and subsequent escalation of tensions between Israel and Iran represent a significant threat to regional stability. While Netanyahu claims success in targeting Iranian leadership, the veracity of these claims remains unconfirmed. Iran’s demonstrated resilience and multi-faceted retaliation strategy, utilizing both missile attacks and proxy forces, suggest a prolonged conflict. The perceived prioritization of Israeli interests by the US over the concerns of Gulf states further complicates the situation, raising the risk of wider regional destabilization and potentially drawing in additional international actors. The situation demands careful diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation and mitigate the potential for a broader conflict.