Is Donald Trump losing public support? | BBC News

Key Concepts

• First 100 days of a presidential term
• Approval ratings
• Polling methodologies and reliability
• Economic indicators (GDP)
• Tariffs and trade policy
• Consumerism
• Political opposition and resistance
• Midterm elections

Donald Trump's First 100 Days and Approval Ratings

Donald Trump, at a rally in Michigan, declared his first 100 days of his second term the "most successful" in US history, citing unnamed sources. However, his approval ratings appear to be declining, particularly concerning his handling of the economy.

• Rally Attendance: The Michigan rally, while enthusiastic, was not as large or energetic as those during the election campaign, with empty seats visible.
• Focus on Polls: Trump criticized "fake polls" that show him with a 44% approval rating, claiming they interview more Democrats than Republicans. He believes a "legit poll" would show approval in the 60s or 70s.
• Poll Skepticism: Trump's skepticism towards polls is understandable given the 2024 election polls that narrowly predicted Kla Harris winning, but Trump won comfortably.
• Historically Low Approval: The ABC News/Washington Post poll showed only 39% of Americans approving of his performance, the lowest point for any president at this stage in 80 years.
• Trump Voter Loyalty: Despite low approval ratings, polls show very few Trump voters regretting their vote (4-6%). Anecdotal evidence suggests continued enthusiasm among Trump voters.
• Perception and Republican Concerns: The danger for Trump lies in the perception of unpopularity, which could affect Republicans facing re-election in upcoming state and midterm elections.

Polling Methodologies and Reliability

The discussion delves into the complexities of polling and the validity of Trump's criticisms.

• Party ID Weighting: Most polls don't weight for party identification because it fluctuates and is unreliable.
• Recall Bias: People may lie or misremember who they voted for in previous elections.
• Polling as Art and Science: Polling involves both scientific methodology and subjective interpretation.
• Accuracy Motivation: Pollsters are motivated to be accurate to maintain their reputation.
• Inherent Errors: All polls contain a margin of error and some degree of unreliable responses. Example: A poll asking if people have a captain's license to drive a nuclear-powered submarine.

Economic Performance and Trade Policy

The conversation shifts to the US economy and the impact of Trump's trade policies.

• GDP Decline: The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported a 0.3% decline in GDP for the first quarter of the year, a significant drop from the previous quarter's 2.5% growth.
• Inventory Stocking: Some argue the GDP decline reflects companies stocking up on imports in anticipation of tariffs.
• Tariff Impact: Concerns exist that tariffs will lead to dropping consumer confidence and rising prices.
• Quarter Two Concerns: The real problem for Trump is quarter two, where the effects of tariffs will be more pronounced, potentially leading to a recession (two consecutive quarters of negative growth).
• Blaming Biden: Trump is already attempting to blame the economic slowdown on Joe Biden, despite being in office for two of the three months covered by the GDP figures.
• Consumerism Critique: Trump suggested Americans may need to get by with less, which is antithetical to the American consumerist economy.
• Shipping Container Data: There is tangible evidence in shipping numbers that containers from China are arriving empty or half-full, indicating a significant drop in goods entering the country.
• Retail Impact: Empty store shelves are a real possibility, potentially affecting major holidays like Christmas and the 4th of July.
• Potential Policy U-Turn: Trump may reverse his tariff policies due to pressure from retailers and the potential for economic damage.
• Car Part Tariffs: Trump has already eased tariffs on car parts, despite previously emphasizing the return of car manufacturing to America.
• Business Uncertainty: The constant policy changes create uncertainty for businesses, leading to reduced investment and production.
• Navarro vs. Bent: Trump listened to Peter Navaro's advice to "go big, hit hard" with tariffs, rather than Scott Bent's recommendation for a gradual approach.

Political Opposition and Resistance

The discussion turns to the Democratic opposition and potential leaders.

• Kamala Harris's Speech: Kamala Harris gave a speech emphasizing "contagious courage" in the face of economic crisis, but it was not well-received.
• Harris's Political Future: There is speculation about whether Harris will run for governor of California.
• Grassroots Resistance: There are signs of increased grassroots activism, but not on the scale of 2017.
• Democratic Leadership Vacuum: The Democratic Party is looking for a voice to lead the resistance.
• JB Pritsker: Illinois Governor JB Pritsker gave a fiery speech in New Hampshire, calling for resistance to Republicans, and is seen as a potential leader.
• Harris's Missteps: Harris's choice to champion judges and Ivy League universities was criticized as being out of touch with mainstream America.
• Slow Legal System: The legal system moves slowly, and any victories are subject to appeal.
• Political Rehabilitation: Harris, like Richard Nixon, may be able to find political rehabilitation in the future.

Conclusion

The first 100 days of Donald Trump's second term are marked by declining approval ratings, economic uncertainty due to trade policies, and a search for leadership within the Democratic opposition. The reliability of polling data is questioned, and the potential for a policy U-turn on tariffs is discussed. The upcoming midterm elections and the economic performance in quarter two will be crucial in determining Trump's political trajectory.