Is Donald Trump leaving his favorite European leader in the lurch? | DW News

Key Concepts:

• Populism
• Illiberal Democracy
• Electoral Autocracy
• Nationalism
• Trumpism
• EU-US Relations
• US Foreign Policy
• Geopolitics
• Project 2025
• Administrative State

Trump and Orban: A Shifting Relationship

• Initial Alliance: The video highlights the close relationship between Donald Trump and Viktor Orban, with Trump publicly praising Orban. Orban's policies and political strategies were seen as an inspiration to Trump and his allies.
• Orban's Influence: Orban's Fidesz party holds a supermajority in Hungary, which he used to introduce a new constitution in 2011, consolidating power in the executive branch. He has passed hundreds of new laws curbing human and civil rights. Businessmen close to the ruling party now have significant stakes in key sectors like banking, energy and importantly to influence public opinion, the media. New electoral rules have cemented Orbán’s power.
• Orban's "Illiberal Democracy": Orban has created what is called an "electoral autocracy" by undermining liberal democratic institutions. Republican officials and Trump himself are impressed with what he has achieved and are seeking to achieve something similar in the United States.
• Project 2025: The Heritage Foundation, a right-wing US think-tank, incorporated Hungarian ideas and tactics in their blueprint for the second Trump term – the Project 2025 document. Orban claimed his team had "deep involvement" in the program-writing system of President Donald Trump’s team.
• Orban as a Go-Between: Orban has maintained close ties with Vladimir Putin and positioned himself as a potential bridge between the US and Russia. He believed he could profit from having close relations with both sides.

Shifting Geopolitical Landscape

• China Factor: Orban's decision to align with China, particularly in the car industry and natural gas sectors, may have raised concerns in Washington. This is because the US is concerned about war with China during the next four years and Viktor Orban is a servant of Xi by political economic actions.
• EU Instability: The EU faces pressure from Russia and potential abandonment from the US. Orban has suggested that the EU may fall apart on its own if it continues on its current path.
• Trump's Disengagement from Europe: Trump's administration appears to be taking a disengaged stance towards Europe. He didn't need an introduction from Orban to talk with Putin about ending the Ukraine war. At the first pre-peace-talks meeting in Saudi Arabia in February, the US and Russia not only excluded Ukraine, they also didn’t invite the Europeans.
• Rise of Other Populist Leaders: Other European leaders, such as Georgia Meloni in Italy and the AfD in Germany, are gaining prominence and may be vying for Trump's attention.

Orban's Diminishing Influence

• Not Needed Anymore: The inspiration that Hungary provided to the far right in the US to undermine democracy is taking on a life of its own. Trump’s administration is taking steps which many see as taking the US towards an Orban-style electoral autocracy. Orban himself is not needed for new ideas.
• Toned Down Relations: Relations between Orban and Trump have seemingly toned down. Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó went to Washington twice in the first months of the new administration. But it was only on his SECOND visit that he was able to meet his US counterpart Marco Rubio.
• Sanctions and Criticism: Szijjártó was trying to get the administration to lift Biden-era sanctions on Antal Rogan, a close Orban ally, who’d been accused of corruption. There was no immediate change. Instead: Indirect criticism of Hungary from Rubio.
• Trump's Self-Interest: Trump only cares about Donald Trump. Nobody who might think for the moment, he or she could rely on the current US President as a person should be secure about that because in the past many who relied on him were abandoned afterwards.
• Nationalism and Economic Interests: Nationalism actually means nationalism, it is not just about religion, and immigration but about most important bread and butter issue. When it comes to economic interest, there is a very clear collision. Tariffs against exports from Europe to the USA will clearly hurt Europe’s economic interests.

Conclusion:

While Viktor Orban was once a key figure in inspiring and advising Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, his influence appears to be waning. Trump's focus has shifted to other geopolitical priorities, and other populist leaders in Europe are emerging. Orban's alignment with China and his potential inability to deliver tangible benefits to the "America First" agenda may have contributed to this shift. Ultimately, Trump's relationships are transactional, and Orban's continued relevance depends on his ability to serve Trump's interests.