Is Abiy Ahmed guilty of genocide in Tigray? Mehdi Hasan & Getachew Reda | Head to Head

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript, maintaining the original language and technical precision:

Key Concepts

• Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF): The dominant political party in Ethiopia for nearly three decades, overthrown in 2018.
• Abiy Ahmed: Current Prime Minister of Ethiopia, Nobel Peace Prize laureate, and a controversial figure.
• Tigray Civil War: A brutal conflict between the Ethiopian federal government and the TPLF.
• Pretoria Agreement: A peace deal signed in 2022 between the Ethiopian government and the TPLF.
• Transitional Justice: Mechanisms aimed at addressing past atrocities and promoting reconciliation.
• Red Sea Access: Ethiopia's long-standing desire for access to a port on the Red Sea.
• Medemer: Abiy Ahmed's philosophy of "coming together" or unity, outlined in his books.
• Simret Party: A new political party founded by Gatachu Redda in Tigray.

Summary of Discussion

The YouTube video features an in-depth discussion with Gatachu Redda, a prominent Ethiopian politician, former TPLF spokesman, and current advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. The conversation, moderated by Miy Hassan, delves into the complex political landscape of Ethiopia, Redda's controversial alliance with Ahmed, the faltering peace process, and the escalating tensions with Eritrea. A panel of experts, including Sidal Lemma (journalist), Shietel Tronville (professor of peace and conflict studies), and Bisret Lamesa (founder of Nexus Forum), provides additional analysis.

Gatachu Redda's Alliance with Abiy Ahmed and Past Accusations

Gatachu Redda acknowledges his current role as an advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, a position that has drawn criticism given his past strong condemnations of Ahmed. Redda explains his decision to work with the federal government stems from a desire to prevent the TPLF from maintaining "totalitarian control" over the people of Tigray and to protect Tigray's interests.

Key Points:

• Past Accusations: Redda previously accused Abiy Ahmed of being a "tyrant," "grifter," and of "dismembering Ethiopia." He also accused Ahmed of committing "genocide" against the Tigrayan people and even claimed Ahmed's forces attempted to assassinate him via drone strike and abducted his sister.
• Justification for Alliance: Redda states that after signing the Pretoria Agreement and submitting to the constitution, and after serving as Tigray's interim president, he felt compelled to work with the Prime Minister to end the war and protect Tigray's interests, even with political differences.
• Genocide Accusations: When pressed, Redda maintains that "all kinds of crimes were committed" in Tigray, including genocide. While he states that as a lawyer he cannot definitively assign blame, he believes genocide was committed and that Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed "led the war." He clarifies that he believes genocide occurred but is not willing to definitively state Ahmed "did the genocide," citing the complexity of actors involved.
• War Crimes by TPLF: Redda admits that human rights organizations and the UN documented war crimes committed by Tigrayan forces, including massacres of civilians. He previously dismissed these claims as a "figment of someone's imagination" or "staged drama." He now concedes that while there was no systematic attack against civilians by TPLF forces, there were "off-grid officers here and there who have targeted civilians," and he is willing to take responsibility for such incidents.
• Internal TPLF Investigation: Redda revealed an internal TPLF investigation accusing 231 former leaders and affiliates of crimes, including human trafficking and arms smuggling. He claims he decided to bring this to light to inform those responsible for adjudicating such cases, and that he was ousted before he could fully expose it. He denies involvement in these crimes.

The Pretoria Agreement and Lack of Accountability

The discussion highlights the significant shortcomings in the implementation of the 2022 Pretoria Agreement, with Redda acknowledging that key promises, particularly regarding justice for victims and accountability for war crimes, have not been fulfilled.

Key Points:

• Unfulfilled Promises: Three years after the agreement, none of the major players have been held accountable for war crimes, and many remain in positions of power.
• Meeting with Amhara Official: Redda's meeting with Amhara official Deme Zewdu, accused of ethnic cleansing in western Tigray, is questioned. Redda defends this by stating that to resolve the crisis, one must engage with those in power. He believes the federal government must dismantle Amhara administrations in occupied Tigrayan areas.
• Perception of Betrayal: Many Tigrayans view Redda as a traitor for joining Abiy Ahmed, the perceived architect of their suffering, especially after he urged them to fight. Redda acknowledges the TPLF leadership, including himself, "failed them miserably" and that this failure "could have been avoided if we were insightful enough as leaders."

Tensions with Eritrea and the Red Sea Access

The conversation shifts to the growing tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea, with reports of military movements and mutual accusations of provocation.

Key Points:

• Ethiopia's Desire for Red Sea Access: Redda downplays the likelihood of war, stating there is no credible argument for violating Eritrea's sovereignty. He believes President Isaias Afwerki and Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed will find a way to de-escalate the crisis.
• Ahmed's Rhetoric: Redda acknowledges Abiy Ahmed's statements about "correcting this historic error of the seaport" and ensuring Ethiopia will not remain landlocked, but believes these are not necessarily threats of war.
• Expert Opinions:
  • Sidal Lemma expresses concern, highlighting the breakdown of the alliance between Ahmed and Afwerki after the Pretoria Agreement.
  • Shietel Tronville believes war is "coming pretty soon," citing Ethiopia's rhetoric and actions that appear to be building a case for conflict.
  • Bisret Lamesa suggests that while the Ethiopian government and people resent the loss of coastal territories, the issue is complex and Eritrea's internal governance also plays a role.

Abiy Ahmed's Leadership and Legacy

The discussion scrutinizes Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's domestic record and his vision for Ethiopia.

Key Points:

• Domestic Challenges: Critics point to an erosion of human rights, clashes with militia groups, ongoing civilian killings, jailing of journalists and opposition figures, and a struggling economy under Ahmed's rule.
• Journalists and Politicians: Redda agrees that journalists and politicians being detained should be released and have their day in court, but states he is not the Prime Minister and doesn't know the specific allegations.
• Medemer Philosophy: Redda acknowledges Ahmed's "grand ideas" in his "Medemer" books but clarifies he was not endorsing policies, only recognizing Ahmed's vision. He admits to having previously called it "[expletive]" and an "assimilation agenda" but states he has "matured enough" to avoid such sweeping characterizations.
• Messiah Complex: Redda denies that Abiy Ahmed has told him personally about being divinely ordained to rule, though he acknowledges Ahmed has made such statements publicly. Redda does not believe Ahmed was chosen by God to rule and states Ahmed "has yet to prove his metal." He expresses indifference to potential repercussions for these statements.
• Legacy: Sidal Lemma argues that Ahmed promised peace but "tore the country apart," leading to widespread societal division and bitterness. Redda believes that while he and his colleagues have failed, his current efforts are to protect Tigray's interests and prevent Ethiopia from further decline.
• Elections and New Party: Redda has co-founded a new party, Simret, in Tigray, aiming to provide an alternative to the TPLF's leadership and ensure the movement for change continues. He states he will not run for office but will lend credibility to the party.

Accountability and Future of Justice

The panel and Redda discuss the persistent lack of accountability for atrocities committed during the conflict.

Key Points:

• Lack of Domestic Accountability: The audience member from Amnesty International highlights the historical absence of domestic accountability in Ethiopia and the federal government's role in shutting down international initiatives.
• Call for International Tribunal: Redda expresses his personal view that an international component, possibly an international tribunal, is necessary for achieving justice and accountability due to the involvement of various international actors in the crimes. He admits the government he works for lobbied to shut down previous international commissions.
• Transitional Justice: Redda believes transitional justice needs to be fully implemented for the entire country and requires engagement with the federal government.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

The discussion concludes with a somber assessment of Ethiopia's current state, marked by internal conflict, regional tensions, and a lack of accountability. Gatachu Redda's position highlights the difficult compromises and pragmatic shifts required in Ethiopian politics, while the panel's insights underscore the deep-seated challenges and uncertain future of peace and stability in the nation. The conversation leaves the audience with a sense of the ongoing struggles for justice, unity, and a stable political future in Ethiopia.