Iraqis vote in general election: What's at stake? • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Parliamentary Election in Iraq: The central event discussed, determining the future leadership of Iraq.
• Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Soudani: The incumbent Prime Minister whose power is being tested by the election.
• Maktada al-Sadr: A populist Shiite cleric leading a boycott of the election.
• Government Formation Process: The complex and lengthy negotiations required to form a government in Iraq, often taking hundreds of days.
• Coalition Government: The necessity of forming a government through consensus and compromise among various political parties.
• Disillusionment with Elections: The sentiment among Iraqis that elections have not led to meaningful change or improved living standards.
• Economic Disparity: The contrast between Iraq's wealth (over $100 billion annual budget) and the lack of basic services like 24-hour electricity and clean water, coupled with high unemployment.
• US-Iran Influence: The delicate balance Prime Minister al-Soudani has had to maintain between the United States and Iran.
• Regional Conflict Insulation: Iraq's relative stability and avoidance of direct involvement in the recent Middle East conflicts.
• Axis of Resistance: A bloc of countries and groups aligned with Iran, which has largely remained quiet in Iraq.
• Operation Inherent Resolve: The US-led operation to combat ISIS, which is nearing its end.
• Security Stability: The current state of security in Iraq, described as more stable than in many years, with ISIS attacks at historic lows.
• Normalized Relations: Iraq's desire for a bilateral relationship with the US post-troop presence, moving away from a military-centric one.
• Underlying Fragility: Despite surface stability, Iraq faces challenges like climate change, corruption, and unaddressed roots of conflict.

Parliamentary Election and Prime Minister's Power

The YouTube video transcript discusses a crucial parliamentary election in Iraq that will determine whether Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Soudani can maintain power. While most polls suggest al-Soudani's coalition is ahead, the government formation process in Iraq is notoriously complex and lengthy, often taking hundreds of days. This process involves intense negotiations between various political parties. Al-Soudani's coalition is described as fragile, comprising many different groups and leaders who have capitalized on an "incumbency wave." Therefore, even if his list comes first, the need for a coalition government means the eventual Prime Minister will have to be a consensus compromise, making al-Soudani's chances of securing a second term "quite slim."

Iraqi Disillusionment with Elections and Governance

A significant driving force behind the current political climate is the deep-seated disillusionment among Iraqis. Since the 2003 regime change, Iraqis were told they lived in a democracy where elections were a vital pulse. However, they have learned that elections have not brought about substantial change. The same leaders have recycled their positions, using parliamentary seats as bargaining chips. This disillusionment is exacerbated by the stark contrast between Iraq's wealth, with an annual budget exceeding $100 billion, and the lack of basic services. Many Iraqis still lack 24-hour electricity and clean water, and youth unemployment is on the rise. This leads to a perception that the country's wealth is not benefiting its citizens, and that the political elite is not interested in genuine democratic change or accountability.

Prime Minister's Tightrope Walk: US-Iran Influence and Regional Stability

Prime Minister al-Soudani has navigated a delicate balance between US and Iran's influence. Remarkably, in a Middle East experiencing perpetual conflict since October 7th, Iraq has been insulated from the violence. Despite being in Iran's orbit for years, Iraq is the only country within the "axis of resistance" that has not directly experienced the conflicts seen in Lebanon, Syria, Palestine, Yemen, and Iran itself. The government in Baghdad has managed to "keep their heads down," focusing on economic investment and infrastructure, and benefiting from stable oil prices. Many armed groups, expected to defend Iran, have remained quiet, demonstrating "restraint." This has allowed Iraq to stay out of the regional conflict thus far.

Impact of Maktada al-Sadr's Boycott

The prominent Shiite nationalist cleric Maktada al-Sadr is boycotting the election. This decision stems from his experience in the last election, where his list won but he was unable to form a government and subsequently pulled out of parliament. His lesson learned is to "don't compete in elections." As a highly influential political figure with a massive movement loyal to him in southern Iraq and Baghdad, his boycott is expected to significantly lower voter turnout. From his perspective, the boycott aims to "delegitimize the elections" and position him as a protest leader against the political system, while also attempting to maintain some influence. This presents a balancing act for al-Sadr.

Iraq's Security Readiness Post-US Troop Withdrawal

A major question looming over the election is Iraq's readiness to manage its own security without US assistance, as remaining US troops are set to leave next year. Prime Minister al-Soudani asserts Iraq is prepared. The Operation Inherent Resolve to combat ISIS is concluding, and ISIS attacks have reached historic lows, indicating a generally stable security situation across Iraq. This stability has led the government to seek a different relationship with the US, one of "normalized relationships" and bilateral ties, rather than a troop presence. However, despite surface stability, Iraq faces significant underlying challenges, including climate change, corruption, and widespread dissatisfaction. The roots of conflict are not yet fully addressed, leaving Iraq "quite fragile" despite its current security improvements.

Conclusion

The parliamentary election in Iraq is a critical juncture, testing Prime Minister al-Soudani's ability to maintain power amidst complex internal political dynamics and external regional pressures. While his coalition may be polling well, the entrenched system of coalition government formation and the significant disillusionment among the populace due to unfulfilled promises of change and poor living standards present formidable challenges. The boycott by Maktada al-Sadr is likely to depress turnout and further delegitimize the electoral process. Despite achieving a degree of regional stability and improving security against ISIS, Iraq remains fragile due to deep-seated issues of corruption, economic disparity, and unaddressed conflict roots, even as it prepares for a post-US troop presence security landscape.