Iraq's general election: What to expect from the vote • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Electoral Process in Iraq: The complexities of forming a government, including potential long discussions between sectarian representatives.
• Voter Disillusionment: Reasons behind low voter turnout, particularly among young people.
• Infrastructure Investment: Disparities in government spending between Baghdad and other regions.
• Political Representation: Barriers for young and independent candidates in Iraqi elections.
• Geopolitical Balancing Act: Navigating relationships with Iran and the United States, and the influence of regional conflicts.

Electoral Process and Challenges

The current vote in Iraq is not straightforward, and the outgoing Prime Minister, al-Sadani Mahame alsani, is not guaranteed a second term, despite potentially topping the vote. The process is expected to involve lengthy discussions among Shia, Sunni, and Kurdish representatives to agree on a future prime minister. This highlights a significant challenge: the potential for a protracted negotiation period following the election.

Voter Disillusionment and Low Turnout

A primary challenge facing candidates in Iraq is the widespread disillusionment among young people with the political landscape. They perceive a lack of change, with the same political figures consistently re-emerging. This sentiment is directly linked to the observed low voter turnout, with initial reports from AFP suggesting it might be even lower than the 41% recorded in the 2021 elections. This indicates that the outcome of the election is far from predetermined, and the next prime minister will inherit a country facing numerous critical decisions and challenges.

Reasons for Voter Disillusionment

The disillusionment stems from several key factors:

• Lack of Perceived Progress: Voters feel that progress in the country is not happening quickly enough.
• Misallocation of Funds: There is a sentiment that leaders are not prioritizing essential infrastructure development. Parliamentary finances reveal a significant 60% fall in investment in local government. This has led to a severe lack of investment in schools, hospitals, and infrastructure outside of Baghdad.
• Disparity in Investment: While investment in areas outside Baghdad has declined, funds have been retained by the federal government in Baghdad for projects like bridge and building construction. This has eroded trust between younger generations and the ruling elite.
• Barriers to Political Entry: Young people aspiring to enter politics find it difficult due to the dominance of established figures who are consistently re-elected. The financial barriers to becoming a candidate are also significant. For instance, there are only 75 independent candidates in this election, compared to a total of 7,740 candidates, a third of whom are women. This lack of opportunity contributes to disappointment.

Geopolitical Balancing Act

A major challenge for the incoming Iraqi government will be navigating the complex relationship between Iran and the United States. Many factions within Iraq are sympathetic to Iran, and their actions are closely monitored by Tehran, sometimes more so than by the Iraqi government itself. The United States is pressuring the Iraqi government to address these armed factions, some of which have candidates participating in the current election.

Regional Geopolitical Shifts

The geopolitical landscape surrounding Iraq has also undergone significant changes since 2021. These include:

• The diminishing influence of Iran in the region.
• The war in Gaza.
• Leadership changes in Syria.
• The involvement of groups like those in Yemen in the Gaza conflict.
• The situation in Lebanon.

These regional dynamics will require the new Iraqi government to adapt and take them into consideration.

Conclusion

The upcoming Iraqi government faces a multifaceted set of challenges, including a complex electoral process, deep-seated voter disillusionment driven by economic disparities and a lack of political representation, and a delicate geopolitical balancing act in a rapidly shifting regional environment. The low voter turnout underscores the urgency for the new leadership to address these critical issues to regain public trust and foster progress.