Iraq parliamentary elections: Will PM Shia al-Sudani secure a second term? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Sectarian and Ethnic Power Sharing Agreement: A system in Iraq where political power is distributed among different religious and ethnic groups.
• Militias: Armed groups, often with political or religious affiliations, that can mobilize voters and influence political outcomes.
• Apathy and Dissolution: Feelings of indifference and disillusionment among voters, leading to low turnout.
• Government Formation: The complex and protracted process of establishing a new government in Iraq, involving negotiations between various political blocs.

Iraq's Parliamentary Elections: A Complex Landscape

Iraq is currently holding parliamentary elections, characterized by a multi-faceted competition for seats among sectarian groups, militias, and clerics. Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Soudani is seeking a second term in office. The primary concerns for Iraqi citizens revolve around security, economic growth, and access to essential services. However, voter turnout is anticipated to be low, mirroring trends from previous elections, largely due to widespread frustration with state corruption and mismanagement. Iraq's governance structure is based on a sectarian and ethnic power-sharing agreement.

Key Players and Competing Interests

The election features over 7,000 candidates vying for 329 parliamentary seats, with sectarian and ethnic groups actively competing for influence.

• Shia Muslim Political Factions: These are the dominant political force in Iraq.
• Militias: Many of these are also Shia and possess the capability to mobilize significant blocs of voters.
• Clerics: They hold sway over public opinion and can influence voter participation.
• Sunni Muslims and Kurds: These groups, along with Iraq's minorities, are legally included in the electoral process.
• Foreign Powers (US and Iran): Both nations have distinct objectives in Iraq. The US aims to diminish Iran's influence, particularly that of Iran-controlled militias, which Iran has historically used to extend its regional power. Iran's influence is reportedly declining following its conflict with Israel and the weakening of its proxy forces across the Middle East.

Internal Divisions and Challenges

Despite the dominance of Shia Muslims, the community is far from unified.

• Prime Minister Muhammad Shia al-Soudani: Currently in power since 2022, he faces a significant challenge in uniting the disparate Shia factions, all vying for influence.
• Militias' Role: While militias are instrumental in mobilizing voters, clashes between armed Shia factions render them a fractured political force.
• Muktada al-Sadr's Influence: A prominent Shia cleric and leader of one of the largest militias, al-Sadr has called for a boycott of the current elections, potentially impacting Shia turnout.
• Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's Stance: Iraq's highest-ranking Shia cleric has not actively encouraged voting in this year's election, unlike in previous instances, which could lead to many Shia citizens abstaining.

The Sunni Muslim and Kurdish communities, along with religious and ethnic minorities, also grapple with internal divisions. While the power-sharing agreement mandates that the speaker of parliament be Sunni and the president be a Kurd, deep divisions and the assassination of a prominent Sunni politician earlier this year have hampered their collective influence.

Voter Disillusionment and Low Turnout

A significant factor contributing to the predicted low voter turnout is the pervasive sense of apathy and dissolution among Iraqis. Journalist Azar Al Rubai, based in Baghdad, elaborates on this:

• Reasons for Abstention: Al Rubai highlights that successive governments have failed to deliver basic services, curb corruption, and improve living standards. This has led many Iraqis to believe that their votes will not bring about meaningful change.
• Impact of Al-Sadr's Call: Millions of Iraqis, estimated by Al Rubai to be around four to five million, are boycotting the elections following al-Sadr's encouragement.

Government Formation: A Complex Process

The outcome of the elections, even if Prime Minister al-Soudani's bloc secures the most seats, does not automatically guarantee him a second term.

• No Guarantee of Second Term: Securing the majority of seats is merely the initial step in a protracted and intricate government formation process.
• Negotiations and Power Distribution: Following the elections, complex and protected negotiations will take place between various political blocs to determine the prime minister and to divide key positions.
• Key Seats: The negotiations will focus on deciding the occupants of the three main constitutional roles: the President, the Prime Minister, and the Speaker of Parliament.

Conclusion

Iraq's parliamentary elections are unfolding against a backdrop of deep-seated political fragmentation, sectarian and ethnic tensions, and widespread voter disillusionment. The influence of both domestic factions and foreign powers, particularly Iran and the US, adds further complexity to the electoral landscape. The anticipated low turnout, driven by a lack of faith in the political system's ability to deliver essential services and combat corruption, underscores the challenges facing the nation. The subsequent government formation process is expected to be arduous, involving extensive negotiations to establish a new leadership and distribute power among the various political actors.