Iraq election: Why the US and Iran are keeping a close eye | DW News

Key Concepts

• Iranian Influence: The significant political and military sway Iran holds in Iraq through Shiite parties and pro-Iran militias.
• Axis of Resistance: Iran's network of allied groups and governments in the Middle East.
• Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF): A powerful umbrella organization of Iran-backed Shia armed groups in Iraq.
• Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL): A persistent extremist group active in Iraq.
• Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK): A Kurdish militant group targeted by Turkey's military operations.
• US Special Envoy to Iraq: A US diplomat responsible for managing relations and policy in Iraq.
• Sovereignty: The principle of a state's independence and freedom from external control.
• Malign External Interference: Undesirable influence from foreign powers.

Post-Election Landscape in Iraq

Following recent elections, Iraq faces a period of potential instability despite a rare phase of political stability and developmental progress. The formation of a new government is anticipated to be a lengthy process, taking weeks or months. International actors, particularly the US and Iran, are closely observing developments due to Iraq's strategic importance and its ongoing navigation of regional geopolitical currents.

Geopolitical Factors Influencing Iraq's Stability

Three primary geopolitical factors are poised to test Iraq's current stability, irrespective of the election results:

1. Iranian Influence:

   • Mechanism of Influence: Iran exerts considerable power in Baghdad through its aligned Shiite political parties, which have a role in the appointment of prime ministers, including the current premier, Muhammad Shia al-Sudani.
   • Regional Context: Iran's "axis of resistance" has faced significant setbacks, with its forces largely dismantled in Lebanon and Yemen by Israel last year, and the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad in Syria representing the loss of a key ally.
   • Iraq as a Stronghold: Despite regional losses, Iraq remains a crucial stronghold for pro-Iran militias. The Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), a prominent umbrella organization, comprises numerous Iran-backed Shia armed groups.
   • Demonstrated Capabilities: PMF-linked allies have shown their reach by deploying troops to Saudi Arabia and the UAE in 2021-2022 and, more critically, by killing three US service members at the Jordan-Syria border last year.
   • Election Significance: The current election is viewed as a critical indicator of the enduring influence of Iran-backed political factions and militias within Iraq.

2. Persistent Security Challenges:

   • ISIL Activity: Despite a general decline in violence, the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) continues to operate in various Iraqi governorates.
   • Turkish Military Operations: In the northern regions, Turkey has maintained its military campaign against the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) over the past year.
   • Tribal Violence: The southern parts of the country continue to experience concerns related to tribal conflicts.

3. US Strategic Interests:

   • Reducing Iranian Influence: A long-standing objective in Washington has been to diminish Iran's influence in Iraq. The current geopolitical climate, with Iran appearing weakened and Iraqi leaders adopting a pragmatic approach, presents a potential opportunity for the US.
   • Official Stance: Mark Zavaya, the US Special Envoy to Iraq, has emphasized the importance of a fully sovereign Iraq, free from "malign external interference," explicitly including Iran and its proxies.
   • Enforcement Measures: The US has implemented sanctions against Iraqis accused of aiding Iran in evading international sanctions.
   • Economic Engagement: Concurrently, the US has bolstered its economic presence in Iraq through contracts in sectors such as oil technology and healthcare.
   • Military Presence: The US maintains approximately 2,500 troops in Iraq as part of the international coalition dedicated to combating the jihadist group ISIL.

Iraq's Balancing Act and Domestic Concerns

For years, Iraq has navigated a complex geopolitical tightrope, balancing its relationships with both Iran and Washington. A significant portion of Iraqi society, however, prioritizes the current period of calm. Their primary concerns are focused on domestic issues such as corruption, inadequate infrastructure, and the deterioration of public services, all of which they expect the new government to address.

Conclusion

The recent Iraqi elections occur at a critical juncture. While the country has achieved a degree of stability and economic recovery, its future trajectory is heavily influenced by persistent Iranian influence, ongoing security threats from groups like ISIL and the PKK, and the strategic interests of the United States. The ability of the incoming Iraqi government to assert its sovereignty, manage these external pressures, and address pressing domestic needs will be crucial in determining the nation's stability and progress.