Iranian regime still standing three months after Khamenei’s death • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Filternet: A term used to describe the highly restricted and censored state of the Iranian internet, where access is limited and monitored by the regime.
• Axis of Evil: A geopolitical term used by the West to describe Iran, particularly during the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
• Ideological Consolidation: The regime's strategy of maintaining power by reinforcing its core support base and controlling the national narrative.
• State-Sanctioned Executions: The use of capital punishment as a tool for political suppression and to project an image of strength during wartime.

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1. State of the Iranian Regime After Three Months of Conflict

Three months into the conflict following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, the Iranian state has focused on maintaining ideological control.

• Information Control: The regime enforced an 88-day total internet blackout, which allowed it to curate its international image and suppress dissent.
• The "Filternet": The recent partial restoration of internet access is not a sign of liberalization but a return to a highly filtered state. Access remains restricted, though VPNs are still utilized by citizens to bypass state censorship.
• Economic Drivers: The decision to restore partial internet access was likely driven by severe economic strain rather than political confidence. The internet serves as a vital lifeline for small business owners, particularly women and those in rural areas, whose livelihoods were threatened by the blackout.

2. Political Succession and the Role of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

The discussion highlights the complex and potentially controversial political maneuvering behind the scenes of the US-Israeli military campaign.

• The Ahmadinejad Factor: Reports, including those from The New York Times, suggest that US and Israeli strategies may have aimed to reinstate former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
• Historical Context: Ahmadinejad is characterized as a populist and polarizing figure who, during his presidency, oversaw the plummeting of the Iranian currency, the expansion of international sanctions, and the branding of Iran as a "pariah state."
• Strategic Irony: The expert notes the irony that if the goal of the conflict was to topple the regime, the potential installation of a more hostile, extremist figure like Ahmadinejad suggests a shift toward further destabilization rather than democratic transition.

3. Domestic Repression and Judicial Practices

The regime has significantly increased the frequency of executions, framing them as necessary security measures during a time of war.

• Silencing Dissent: These executions are interpreted as a "brutalization" of the population intended to instill fear and silence opposition.
• Lack of Due Process: The judicial system is described as operating under "drastic measures," where defendants are often denied the right to legal counsel and are granted as little as 20 minutes to defend themselves before a judge.
• Sign of Insecurity: While the regime presents these actions as a display of strength and national security, the expert argues that this spike in violence is actually a manifestation of the regime's "increased insecurity."

4. Synthesis and Conclusion

The current state of Iran is defined by a paradox: the regime projects an image of ideological strength and wartime security, yet it is simultaneously grappling with severe economic instability and internal fragility. The use of extreme measures—such as prolonged internet blackouts and a surge in executions—serves to maintain a facade of control. However, the potential involvement of external powers in promoting polarizing figures like Ahmadinejad suggests that the conflict has moved beyond simple regime change, potentially leading to a more volatile and hostile political landscape within the country. The "filternet" and the erosion of judicial rights remain the primary tools through which the state attempts to manage its domestic population amidst these mounting pressures.