Iranian regime doesn't seem to be on the imminent verge of collapse: Carnegie's Karim Sadjadpour

Key Concepts:

• Elite divisions within the Iranian regime
• Regime vulnerability and potential collapse
• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's leadership and challenges
• Iran's options for retaliation and their potential consequences
• The tension between survival and defiance in Iranian leadership
• Iranian population's sentiment towards the regime
• The impact of October 7th on Iran's regional influence
• The role of Russia, China, and North Korea in supporting Iran
• The importance of Iranian civil society in driving change
• The dynamics of authoritarian transitions and the role of security forces

1. The Health of the Iranian Regime and Signs of Vulnerability

• The most important indicator of the Iranian regime's health is the presence of elite divisions or fissures. These divisions are often a prerequisite for regime vulnerability and potential collapse.
• The regime has been "decimated and humiliated," with its regional project in the Middle East "gone up in flames."
• Examples of setbacks include:
  • Israel's actions against Lebanese Hezbollah.
  • The collapse of the Assad regime in Syria.
  • The destruction of Iran's nuclear program, a "$500 billion enterprise."
• Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 86 years old, is described as living in a bunker with limited bandwidth to lead a high-tech war. Many top military commanders have been eliminated.
• Despite these challenges, there are no immediate signs of the regime's imminent collapse.

2. Khamenei's Leadership and the Dilemma of Survival vs. Defiance

• Khamenei has been ruling since 1989 and hasn't left the country since then, indicating a survival instinct.
• He is not a gambler or suicidal, but his entire life has been about resistance and defiance.
• He believes that compromising under pressure will embolden adversaries.
• There is a tension between his survival instincts and his defiant instincts.

3. Iranian Population's Sentiment and the Limits of Popular Will

• Over 80% of the Iranian population dislikes the police state and theocracy, which has caused economic hardship.
• However, the population is currently more focused on their immediate security and safety than on political protests.
• Waging political protests is not top of mind for people right now.

4. The Impact of October 7th and Iran's Overreach

• Hamas and Hezbollah, Iran's proxies, have been severely damaged and weakened.
• October 7th was a moment of miscalculation for Iran, where they thought they would have a huge impact.
• After the U.S. invasion of Saddam Hussein in 2003, Iran filled the power vacuum in Iraq, Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, and Gaza.
• Iran was the only leadership in the world to endorse Hamas's invasion.
• Iran overreached, thinking it could lead to the eradication of Israel.
• The discussion has shifted from the eradication of Israel to the potential eradication of the Islamic Republic of Iran, which came to power in 1979.

5. The Role of Russia, China, and North Korea

• Russia, North Korea, and China have not stepped in to defend Iran in a meaningful way.
• Russia is occupied with its war in Ukraine.
• China's relationship with Iran is transactional, primarily focused on buying oil and gas.
• China doesn't have a huge stake in the survival of the current Iranian system.

6. The Importance of Iranian Civil Society

• Foreign powers cannot save the regime or the population.
• Democratic governments cannot manufacture a transition from a revolutionary government to a representative government.
• Iranian civil society must lead that transition.

7. Dynamics of Authoritarian Transitions

• Authoritarian transitions are often "brutality contests" rather than popularity contests.
• If Iranians could determine their own future, they would choose to be like South Korea, not North Korea.
• Iranians are patriotic and want to be sovereign and part of the outside world.
• Popular will does not always prevail.
• Those who are highly armed, organized, and willing to kill often prevail, as seen in the Arab Spring.
• In the Iranian context, this includes security forces, intelligence forces, and aspiring Iranian Vladimir Putins or Iranian Sisis.

8. Notable Quotes

• "Iran was the only country in the world, only leadership in the world, to endorse Hamas's invasion."
• "We're talking now not about the eradication of Israel, but about the eradication of the Islamic Republic of Iran."
• "Authoritarian transitions are often 'brutality contests' rather than popularity contests."

9. Technical Terms and Concepts

• Elite Fissures: Divisions or disagreements among the ruling class or leadership of a regime.
• Hubris: Excessive pride or self-confidence, often leading to a downfall.
• Proxies: Groups or entities that act on behalf of another party, often a state or organization.
• Theocracy: A system of government in which priests rule in the name of God or a god.

10. Synthesis/Conclusion

The Iranian regime faces significant challenges, including internal divisions, regional setbacks, and a dissatisfied population. While the regime is not on the verge of imminent collapse, its long-term stability is uncertain. The actions of Iranian civil society, rather than external forces, will ultimately determine the country's future. The regime's survival hinges on the balance between Khamenei's survival instincts and his commitment to defiance, as well as the ability of security forces to suppress dissent. The situation remains volatile, and the outcome is far from predetermined.