Iran warns US it will retaliate if attacked - as protests death toll soars | BBC News

Key Concepts

• Anti-Regime Protests: Widespread demonstrations across Iran fueled by economic hardship and political discontent.
• Retaliation Threat: Iran’s warning of striking US military bases and Israel in response to a potential US attack.
• US Intervention Options: Potential US responses ranging from military strikes and cyberattacks to sanctions and support for protesters via Starlink.
• Internal vs. External Change: Debate within Iran regarding whether change should originate internally or with foreign assistance.
• Escalation Risk: The potential for the conflict to expand beyond Iran’s borders.

Iran Protests and US-Iran Tensions: A Detailed Overview

The current situation in Iran is characterized by widespread anti-regime protests, a brutal crackdown by Iranian authorities, and escalating tensions with the United States. These protests, ignited by “soaring inflation,” have spread to “more than 100 cities and towns across every province in Iran.” A human rights group has “verified almost 500 deaths” resulting from the government’s response.

Protest Dynamics and Government Response

The protests are particularly significant in Mashar, the hometown of Iran’s Supreme Leader, where demonstrators are actively challenging “clerical rule.” The unrest is not geographically isolated, with reports of demonstrations in Tehran (north) and Kman (south), accompanied by both civilian demonstrations and government suppression. Evidence of the latter is stark, with one location described as an “open air morgue” containing “at least 180” body bags, with more arriving continuously. The government is simultaneously conducting its own funerals for security forces and civilians, framing the deaths as resulting from “terrorist acts committed by the US and Israel.”

President Massud Peshkan attributes the unrest to manipulation by “his country’s enemies” and has called for “nationwide marches” in support of the regime. State television broadcasts reinforce this narrative, listing provinces where individuals were allegedly killed in terrorist attacks. Demonstrations within the Iranian Parliament included chants of “Death to America,” and a direct warning to President Trump.

Threats of Retaliation and Potential Targets

A key development is Iran’s explicit threat of retaliation should the US attack. According to statements made by Iranian officials, in the event of an attack, “Israel as well as US military bases in the region will be our legitimate targets.” This warning is not considered an “idle threat,” as evidenced by Iran’s previous response to a similar situation last year. Specifically, when President Trump previously planned military strikes against Iranian nuclear sites, Iran retaliated by attacking a US military base in Qatar. This historical precedent underscores the risk of escalation.

Calls for Change and Differing Perspectives

The protests have also spurred calls for the return of Reza Palavi, the exiled former crown prince. Palavi, appearing on US Fox TV, urged President Trump to support the Iranian people and “liberate Iran” to “make Iran great again.” However, this call for foreign assistance is rejected by some Iranians who believe that change must originate “from within.”

President Pesan, in his first public statement in days, acknowledged the concerns of the protesters, stating a willingness to “hear them and solve their problems.” However, he emphasized that preventing “rioters” from disrupting society is the government’s “highest duty.” The situation on the ground remains volatile, with reports of security forces on motorcycles opening fire, and the protests demanding “no quick fixes.”

US Response and Potential Actions

President Trump is reportedly issuing almost daily warnings about a potential attack on Iran. He is scheduled to hold a formal meeting with advisors on Tuesday to consider a “range of options,” including “military strikes, cyber attacks, more sanctions,” and providing support to protesters, potentially through “authorizing more Starlink satellite terminals to enter Iran.” Trump’s tendency to make decisions “at the last minute” adds to the uncertainty.

Risk of Regional Instability

The report concludes by highlighting the significant risk that the conflict may not remain contained within Iran’s borders. The potential for escalation, coupled with Iran’s stated targets for retaliation, suggests a broader regional instability is a real possibility.

Technical Terms:

• Starlink: A satellite internet constellation operated by SpaceX, providing internet access to remote locations. Its potential use in Iran would allow protesters to bypass government censorship.
• Clerical Rule: The system of governance in Iran based on the authority of Islamic clerics.
• Escalation: A process by which a conflict becomes more intense, often involving an increase in the level of violence or the scope of the conflict.