Iran warns 'fully prepared for war' if US intervenes as protests enter third week • FRANCE 24

Key Concepts

• Iranian Protests (2023/2024): Ongoing demonstrations against the Iranian government, marked by significant casualties and a harsh crackdown.
• Casualty Toll & Treatment of Bodies: Reports of over 544 deaths and allegations of authorities requiring payment from families to retrieve bodies of deceased protesters.
• Terrorism Designation: The Iranian government labeling protesters as terrorists, potentially leading to the death penalty.
• Domestic Actors: The role and resilience of the protesters themselves in sustaining the movement.
• Security Apparatus Cohesion: The potential for fractures within the Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard.
• US Involvement: Potential US intervention options, ranging from military action to cyberattacks and sanctions.
• Reza Pahlavi: The exiled crown prince of Iran and his controversial role as a potential leader.
• Starlink/SpaceX: Elon Musk’s satellite internet service and its potential to restore internet access to protesters.
• Ballistic Missiles: Iran’s capability to launch ballistic missiles towards Israel and US military assets in the region.

Iran Protests: Situation Update and Potential US Response

The situation in Iran remains critical, with ongoing protests resulting in a significant number of casualties and a severe crackdown by the regime. Reports indicate a death toll exceeding 544, according to human rights organizations like the Human Rights Activist News Agency (based in the US) and a Norwegian-based organization. A particularly disturbing development is the allegation that families are being forced to pay authorities to retrieve the bodies of those killed during the protests. Furthermore, protesters killed or arrested are being designated as “terrorists,” a label that carries the potential for the death penalty. The regime is claiming these protesters are funded by the United States or Israel.

Factors Influencing the Protest Outcome

Philip Tur identifies three key factors that will likely determine the outcome of the protests:

1. Strength of Domestic Actors: The ability of the protesters to sustain their demonstrations in the face of the regime’s brutality. The question is how long they can maintain momentum.
2. Cohesion of the Security Apparatus: The Iranian army consists of approximately 340,000 members, while the Iranian Revolutionary Guard numbers around 125,000. Reports suggest cracks within the Revolutionary Guard, with some members refusing to participate in suppressing the protests, though the extent of this dissent is difficult to ascertain. Such defections would significantly weaken the regime.
3. US Involvement: The potential for intervention by the United States and its impact on the conflict.

Potential US Intervention Options

Donald Trump has stated he has been in contact with Iranian officials who express a desire for dialogue, and that the US is prepared to assist. However, he also indicated a willingness to intervene militarily if necessary, prior to any negotiations. The options under consideration include:

• Military Intervention: Bombing raids targeting the regime.
• Cyberattacks: Disrupting Iranian infrastructure, similar to tactics observed in Ukraine, such as targeting electricity supplies and power stations.
• Restoring Internet Access: Trump has reportedly contacted Elon Musk to request SpaceX and Starlink’s assistance in providing internet access to protesters, circumventing the government’s internet blackout. Starlink digi boxes are available in Iran, but authorities are attempting to suppress their use.
• Increased Sanctions: Imposing further economic pressure on Iran.
• Boosting Anti-Government Organizations: Providing financial and logistical support to groups opposing the regime.

However, the US faces significant challenges. Iran has warned that any intervention will be met with retaliatory attacks targeting Israel and US military assets in the region, potentially involving up to 100 ballistic missiles per day aimed at Israel. There is also concern that US intervention could inadvertently strengthen the Iranian regime by allowing it to frame the protests as a foreign-backed attack.

The Divisive Figure of Reza Pahlavi

Many protesters have called for the return of Reza Pahlavi, the 65-year-old son of the former Shah of Iran, who has been in exile since 1979. He founded the Iranian National Council in 2013 and advocates for a democratic transition. However, Pahlavi is a divisive figure. Experts note he lacks charisma and has shown limited engagement with the existing opposition within Iran, primarily focusing on royalists.

His perceived alignment with Donald Trump, evidenced by his use of the “Make Iran Great Again” slogan and his participation in conservative political events alongside figures like Elon Musk, Steve Bannon, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, raises concerns. Furthermore, his perceived closeness to Israel is also a point of contention. While some believe a return to the monarchy might be preferable to the current regime, experts suggest Pahlavi does not have universal support within Iran.

Logical Connections & Synthesis

The discussion highlights a complex and volatile situation. The protests are fueled by deep-seated discontent, but face a brutal response from the regime. US intervention presents a high-risk, high-reward scenario, with the potential to either support the protesters or inadvertently strengthen the government. The potential leadership of Reza Pahlavi is fraught with controversy, raising questions about his ability to unite the opposition and lead a successful transition. The interplay between domestic unrest, regional security concerns, and international political considerations creates a precarious situation with no easy solutions. The core takeaway is that the future of Iran remains highly uncertain, dependent on the resilience of the protesters, the internal dynamics of the Iranian security forces, and the calculated decisions of external actors, particularly the United States.