Iran: Several people killed as protest across the country escalate | DW News

Current Situation in Iran: Protests, Regime Response, and External Factors

Key Concepts:

• Woman, Life, Freedom (زن، زندگی، آزادی): The central slogan of the 2022 protests sparked by the death of Mahsa Amini, representing demands for greater rights and freedoms.
• Revolutionary Guard (سپاه پاسداران): A powerful Iranian military organization with significant political and economic influence.
• Mullah: A term for a Muslim cleric, often used to refer to the ruling religious establishment in Iran.
• Diaspora: The community of Iranians living outside of Iran, often playing a role in advocacy and political discourse.
• Regime Change: The overthrow of the current Iranian government and its replacement with a new political system.
• Raza Pahlavi: The son of the last Shah of Iran, representing a monarchist alternative.

1. Escalating Protests and State Response

Recent clashes between protesters and security forces in western Iran have resulted in multiple deaths, following the killing of a volunteer member of the Revolutionary Guard. Demonstrations, now in their fifth day, initially began as protests against runaway inflation but have broadened into widespread anger against the country’s authoritarian regime. Reports indicate protests are occurring in at least 30 cities across seven provinces. Mahmud Amir Mogadam, Director of Iran Human Rights, estimates between six and seven people have been killed and hundreds wounded. He anticipates a heavier-handed response from the state, citing a history of violence and the highest number of executions in Iran in over 35 years during the past year. The Iranian authorities are reportedly hoping the protests will subside without excessive violence, but Mogadam believes they have limited options.

2. Slogans of Defiance and Historical Context

Protesters are chanting slogans such as “Death to the Mullahs,” “Death to the Regime,” and “Death to Death Toi” (referencing the Supreme Leader). Zeba Shakib, a filmmaker and political activist, notes these slogans have been used for 46 years, reflecting a long-standing struggle for liberation. She emphasizes the evolving nature of the protests, with people continually striving for greater freedoms, despite the regime’s strong grip on power. Shakib points to the 2022 uprising following the death of Mahsa Amini as a recent example of this ongoing resistance.

3. External Actors and Iranian Perspectives

The situation has drawn attention from international figures. Donald Trump issued a statement on Truth Social offering US support if Iran “violently kills peaceful protesters,” stating the US is “locked and loaded and ready to go.” Netanyahu also publicly addressed the Iranian population, suggesting external support and forces on the ground. However, Shakib stresses that the Iranian population is “traumatized by help from outside,” citing a history of foreign intervention (by the British, US, and others) that has ultimately worsened conditions for the Iranian people. She asserts that Iranians prefer other countries refrain from supporting the regime and believe they possess the strength and means to address the situation themselves. Scott Lucas, Professor of American Studies at University College Dublin, echoes this sentiment, stating that change must come from within Iran to be sustainable.

4. Regional Implications and Potential Destabilization

A top Iranian official warned that US intervention could destabilize the entire region. However, Shakib argues the region is already destabilized and that the fall of the current regime would be a positive development, citing Iran’s past support for groups like Assad’s regime and other terrorist organizations. Lucas agrees, stating that the situation can only get better or worse, and that a change in Iran could be beneficial.

5. The Question of Regime Change and Potential Endgames

The possibility of regime change is a central theme. Lucas cautions against the US explicitly advocating for regime change, as it would likely be used by the Iranian government to discredit the protest movement and rally support. He advocates for supporting peaceful reform movements focused on women’s rights, economic rights, and social justice. The potential return of Reza Pahlavi, the son of the ousted Shah, is also discussed. Lucas notes that while some Iranians support his return, this view is often amplified by the diaspora and is not universally held within Iran. He emphasizes the need for caution given the Shah’s past record. Mogadam confirms that a significant portion of the population does not want the Islamic Republic, but opinions are polarized regarding the future, including support for and against Pahlavi’s return.

6. Government Dialogue and Underlying Issues

The Iranian president has offered dialogue with protesters, but Mogadam dismisses this as insincere, arguing the regime lacks the competence and solutions to address fundamental issues like water shortages, electricity shortages, and economic instability. He claims the regime relies on creating fear through tactics like high execution rates to maintain control.

7. Current Crisis and Long-Term Threats

Mogadam characterizes the current situation as the biggest crisis facing the Islamic Republic since 1979. He asserts that the primary threat to the regime comes not from external actors like Israel or the US, but from the anger of the Iranian people. He also points out that recent events, including attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, have demonstrated the regime’s inability to protect the country or itself.

Notable Quotes:

• Zeba Shakib: “The population does not really ask for help from other countries from other governments. Um they only ask for other countries and governments not to support the regime.”
• Scott Lucas: “Change if it is going to come cannot be imposed on Iran from the outside. It has to come from inside.”
• Mahmud Amir Mogadam: “The main threat to the Islamic Republic doesn't come from Israel or the United States. It comes from angry people inside the country.”

Data and Statistics:

• Protests are occurring in at least 30 cities across seven provinces.
• Between six and seven people have been killed and hundreds wounded in recent clashes.
• Iran had the highest number of executions in over 35 years last year.

Conclusion:

The situation in Iran is highly volatile, marked by escalating protests, a repressive state response, and complex external dynamics. While international actors are offering statements and potential support, the prevailing sentiment among many Iranians is a distrust of foreign intervention. The core issue remains internal: a deep-seated dissatisfaction with the regime and a desire for greater freedoms and economic stability. The future remains uncertain, with possibilities ranging from peaceful reform to escalating confrontation and potential regime change, but the protests demonstrate a clear and growing demand for change from within Iranian society.