Iran’s two navies and the fate of its “Midget Submarines” • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Area Defense vs. Escort Mission: A strategic distinction between protecting a general maritime zone versus providing direct, "bodyguard-style" protection for individual vessels.
• Leakers: A military term for threats (missiles, drones, or small boats) that bypass primary defensive layers and reach their intended target.
• Yono-class Submarines: North Korean-designed mini-submarines used by Iran, capable of launching torpedoes but limited by short endurance and shallow-water operational requirements.
• Hypersonic Missiles (Dark Eagle): High-speed weapons (5x the speed of sound) intended to penetrate advanced air defenses; their deployment in the Middle East is viewed as a strategic demonstration rather than a tactical necessity.
• Acoustic Environment: The complex underwater sound conditions in the Persian Gulf, characterized by shallow depths, high salinity, and temperature variations, which complicate submarine navigation and sonar operations.

---

1. US Naval Posture and Strategic Shifts

Brian Clark highlights the operational strain on US CENTCOM due to rapidly shifting objectives in the Strait of Hormuz.

• Mission Pivot: The US initially focused on a blockade to prevent shipping to Iran (disabling 50–60 vessels). This shifted to a defensive mission to protect shipping exiting the Strait.
• Resource Constraints: The US avoided a formal "escort mission" to prevent being tied to a high-risk, individual bodyguard role. This resulted in a limited "area defense" approach that lacked the necessary resources to guarantee safety, leading to the eventual pause of "Project Freedom."
• Operational Challenges: The mission was hampered by Saudi Arabia’s refusal to allow overflight and basing, which forced aircraft to operate from greater distances, reducing their effectiveness.

2. The Iranian Threat Landscape

Clark categorizes the Iranian naval threat into two distinct components:

• The Revolutionary Guard Navy: Primarily utilizes speedboats hidden in coastal inlets, caves, and urbanized areas like Bandar Abbas. This threat is difficult to eliminate entirely due to the geography.
• Mini-Submarines: While initially a concern, these Yono-class vessels are largely considered neutralized. Their inability to remain at sea for more than a few days and the US targeting of their home ports have effectively removed them from the current conflict.
• Psychological Leverage: Iran has gained a "taste for control" over the Strait. Clark argues that even if a deal is reached, Iran will likely demand compensation or tolls, maintaining a latent threat that necessitates a long-term international defensive presence.

3. Operational Realities and Naval Morale

• Submarine Warfare: The Persian Gulf is described as a "very difficult acoustic environment." US submarines generally avoid the area due to shallow depths and variable salinity, which make buoyancy and sonar navigation hazardous.
• Crew Burnout: Discussing the USS Gerald R. Ford’s record-breaking deployment (296 days), Clark notes that morale hits a "breaking point" around the 11-month mark. He emphasizes that while sailors accept sacrifice for clear, useful missions, the current stalemate and extended deployments lead to fatigue and questioning of the mission's purpose.

4. The "Dark Eagle" Hypersonic Deployment

Clark provides a critical assessment of the potential deployment of the US Dark Eagle hypersonic missile:

• Strategic Signaling: He argues that the deployment is not a tactical requirement against Iran, as Iran’s air defenses are already largely neutralized.
• Audience: The move is intended as a demonstration of capability to global rivals, specifically China, proving that the US has successfully fielded an operational hypersonic system.

5. Synthesis and Future Outlook

The summary of the situation is that the US is currently caught in a "hospital pass" scenario. Clark suggests that the US will likely seek to offload the long-term burden of securing the Strait to European and Asian navies, as the US does not rely on the oil flowing through the region. The future of the Strait will likely involve a "new normal" where Iran exerts some level of control, and shipping companies must rely on international escort missions to mitigate the persistent risk of "leakers" that could bypass defensive umbrellas.

Notable Quote:

"It only takes one [threat] to make it through... the US has sort of set the expectations that this is a low-risk operation and they really can't afford the optics of having a US ship get hit." — Brian Clark on the risks of the escort mission.