Iran’s Military Capabilities Against Israel, Explained | WSJ

Key Concepts

• Iranian-Israeli conflict escalation
• Iran's military capabilities: missiles, drones, proxies
• Israel's defense systems and reliance on allies
• Ballistic missiles vs. cruise missiles and drones
• Saturation tactics in missile attacks
• Strategic vs. devastating attacks
• Sustainability of missile warfare

Iran's Military Capabilities and Strategy

• Military Structure: Iran's military operations are led by the Supreme Leader and encompass two branches of its own military, as well as a network of proxy forces operating outside its borders.
• Proxy Warfare: Historically, Iran has relied on proxy groups as its first line of defense, aiming to keep conflict away from Iranian soil. The Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s heavily influenced this strategy.
• Weakened Proxies: Israel has significantly weakened Iran's proxies in Gaza and Lebanon, diminishing their military effectiveness. This leaves Iran more isolated and reliant on its own missile capabilities.
• Missile Arsenal: Iran possesses a substantial arsenal of missiles capable of reaching Israel, including approximately 2,000 ballistic missiles, according to Israel's Ambassador to the United States.
• Missile Types: Iran's arsenal includes both large, destructive ballistic missiles and less powerful, less expensive cruise missiles and drones. Cruise missiles and drones can fly low, making them harder to detect.
• Saturation Tactics: Iran employs a strategy of launching multiple missiles and drones simultaneously, varying their trajectories and speeds to overwhelm radar systems and increase the likelihood of penetrating Israel's defenses. The goal is to force Israel to "pick and choose" which threats to intercept, hoping some will get through.

Israel's Defense and the Role of Allies

• Defense System Vulnerabilities: While Israel has a robust defense system, it is not impenetrable. Iran has successfully penetrated it in past attacks.
• US Assistance: Israel relies on assistance from the United States and other allies to intercept missile barrages. This support is crucial for maintaining effective defense.
• Limited Sustainability: Due to the need to launch hundreds of missiles in each attack to penetrate Israeli defenses, Iran's missile stockpile may not be sufficient to sustain a prolonged air conflict.
• Strategic vs. Devastating Attacks: Attacks on military bases or unoccupied areas have less strategic utility but attacks on populated areas could result in significant casualties (dozens or hundreds of people).

Examples and Case Studies

• October Retaliatory Attack: Following the killing of a Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, Israel faced a retaliatory attack from Iran, involving approximately 180 missiles launched at Tel Aviv and Israeli bases. Some missiles penetrated the defense system, but no deaths were reported. Most landed in unoccupied areas of military bases, causing minimal damage.
• Recent Strikes and Counter-Strikes: Israel launched strikes on areas throughout Iran, including key nuclear and military sites. Iran responded with missile attacks aimed at populated areas in and around Tel Aviv, breaching the defense system.

Key Arguments and Perspectives

• Escalation of Conflict: The recent strikes represent a significant escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, pushing it into "uncharted territory."
• Iran's Isolation: The weakening of Iran's proxy forces has left it more isolated and dependent on its own military capabilities.
• Numbers Game: The effectiveness of Iran's attacks hinges on the sheer number of missiles launched, highlighting the importance of stockpile size and the ability to sustain a prolonged conflict.

Synthesis/Conclusion

The Iranian-Israeli conflict has entered a new phase with direct attacks on each other's territories. Iran's military strategy relies heavily on missile attacks, but its ability to sustain a prolonged conflict is questionable. Israel's defense system, while effective, is not impenetrable and relies on assistance from allies. The conflict's escalation and the potential for devastating attacks on populated areas raise serious concerns about regional stability.