Iran playing the strait: understanding the regime • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint used by Iran as a strategic leverage tool.
• "Rally Around the Flag" Effect: A psychological phenomenon where citizens unite behind their government during times of external threat or war.
• Developmentalism: A political ideology focused on rapid economic growth and infrastructure modernization, associated with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
• Collective Leadership: The current Iranian governance structure involving the Supreme Leader, the IRGC, the President, and the Parliament Speaker.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): The primary military and political power center in Iran, currently exerting significant influence over war-time policy.

1. Geopolitical Leverage and the Strait of Hormuz

The conflict is defined by three primary points of contention: international sanctions/frozen assets, the Iranian nuclear program, and control over the Strait of Hormuz.

• The Blockade Dynamic: Iran maintains that its control over the Strait is a direct response to the U.S. "double blockade" of Iranian ports. Iran has signaled that it will only relinquish its influence over the Strait if the U.S. lifts its maritime blockade.
• Strategic Stance: Despite fluctuating reports on whether the Strait is "open" or subject to tolls, the regime remains firm in using this maritime corridor as a primary bargaining chip.

2. Domestic Sentiment and Nationalism

Contrary to expectations of internal collapse, the war has shifted the domestic political landscape.

• Hardening of Public Opinion: While the Islamic Republic has not necessarily gained popularity, it has become "less unpopular."
• Nationalist Backlash: U.S. rhetoric and social media posts perceived as insults to Iranian culture and heritage, combined with the bombardment of cultural sites, have triggered a surge in Iranian nationalism. This has fostered a sense of patriotic determination to defend the country, complicating U.S. efforts to destabilize the regime from within.

3. Power Dynamics and Key Figures

The Iranian leadership structure is currently functioning through a division of labor rather than a single-person command:

• Mojtaba Khamenei: The new Supreme Leader is viewed as being deeply aligned with the IRGC. His relative silence during the conflict is interpreted by analysts as a consolidation of power behind the military apparatus.
• Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf: The Parliament Speaker and former IRGC commander serves as the primary liaison between the regime and the Revolutionary Guards. His background includes a "checkered past" involving corruption scandals and the suppression of student protests, yet he remains a central figure in the regime’s political machinery.
• Division of Labor:
  • Foreign Ministry (Abbas Aragchi): Focused on diplomacy and international negotiations.
  • Presidency (Masoud Pezeshkian): Focused on domestic governance and day-to-day state affairs.
  • IRGC/Parliament Speaker: Focused on military strategy and the "hard" power aspects of the regime.

4. Diplomatic Negotiations

The negotiation process is characterized by deep mistrust and a preference for specific interlocutors.

• Negotiation Framework: Iran has explicitly requested the exclusion of certain U.S. officials (e.g., Jared Kushner, Steve Witkoff) due to past failures, leading to the inclusion of Vice President Vance in the delegation.
• Communication Strategy: The expert warns against "negotiating on social media." The hyperbole coming from Washington is viewed as counterproductive, with the recommendation that substantive progress can only occur behind closed doors, away from public rhetoric.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The current situation in Iran is not one of a leaderless state, but rather a functioning, collective regime operating under war conditions. The U.S. strategy of applying pressure through blockades and public rhetoric has inadvertently strengthened the regime by fueling nationalist sentiment. The key takeaway is that the Iranian government is operating through a calculated division of labor, with the IRGC maintaining a firm grip on military policy while the executive branch manages diplomacy and domestic affairs. Observers are cautioned to look past the "noise" of public statements and focus on the substantive actions of the power centers behind the curtain.