Iran-Israel conflict and the Middle East: Who stands to gain? | News Desk

Key Concepts

• Iran-Israel Conflict: Unprecedented escalation of attacks between Iran and Israel.
• Nuclear Proliferation: Concerns over Iran's nuclear program and potential for weaponization.
• Regional Hegemony: Israel's perceived desire to become the dominant power in the Middle East.
• Proxy Warfare: Iran's support for non-state actors like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.
• Sanctions and Arms Embargo: Impact of US sanctions and arms embargo on Iran's defense capabilities.
• Regime Change: Potential goal of Israel's operation to topple the Iranian government.
• US Involvement: Possibility of US military intervention and its potential consequences.
• Gulf States' Position: Anxieties of Gulf states regarding regional war and their efforts to de-escalate.
• Russia and China's Role: Limited direct involvement of Russia and China, with a focus on political and economic interests.
• Attrition Warfare: Potential for a prolonged conflict between Iran and Israel.

Escalation of Iran-Israel Conflict

• Attacks and Targets: Iran and Israel have been engaged in direct attacks, with Iran firing drones and missiles at Israel, and Israel using its air force against Iranian nuclear facilities, military installations, and personnel. Civilian areas have been struck on both sides.
• Casualties: Over 220 people have been killed in Iran and at least 24 in Israel.
• Unprecedented Escalation: This marks an unprecedented escalation between the two rivals in the Middle East.
• IAEA Concerns: The IAEA reported that Iran had breached its nuclear obligations, raising concerns about nuclear non-proliferation.
• Netanyahu's Rationale: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stated that the objective of Israel's military operation is to remove the nuclear and ballistic missile threat to Israel.

Iran's Nuclear Program and Intentions

• Disruption vs. Elimination: Israel has been able to disrupt Iran's nuclear program, but cannot eliminate it entirely.
• Natanz Facility: Parts of the Natanz enrichment facility, specifically those providing power to centrifuges, have been attacked. However, the underground facilities housing the centrifuges have survived.
• Fordow Facility: Israel cannot destroy the Fordow nuclear enrichment facility on its own, which is why Netanyahu has been trying to involve the US.
• Knowledge Cannot Be Bombed: Even if facilities are destroyed, the knowledge of how to build nuclear weapons remains with Iranian scientists.
• Nuclear Weapon Option: Iran wants to maintain the option to develop nuclear weapons if it deems it necessary for its defense.
• Breach of Nuclear Obligations: The IAEA reported that Iran was in breach of its nuclear obligations for the first time in more than a decade.
• Limited Enrichment Capacity: Iran was willing to accept a limited enrichment capacity, capped at 3.67%, under the JCPOA.
• US Position: The US position, particularly under the Trump administration, has been zero enrichment, which Iran rejects.

Potential for US Involvement

• Trump's Stance: Donald Trump has called for an unconditional surrender from the Iranian regime and has expressed a lack of interest in negotiation.
• Likelihood of US Intervention: There is a significant possibility (55-60%) that the US will join Israel's war on Iran.
• Target: Fordow: The primary target of US intervention would be the Fordow nuclear plant, which requires bunker-buster bombs that only the US possesses.
• All-Out War: If the US joins the war, it could escalate into an all-out conflict.
• Illegal Threat: Trump's veiled threat to kill the Supreme Leader of Iran is illegal under US law.

Regional Dynamics and Gulf States' Position

• Normalization of Relations: Gulf states have been normalizing relations with Iran due to their strategic priorities of domestic politics and economic diversification.
• Anxiety About Regional War: Gulf states are anxious about any regional war that could destroy their political economy, which relies on energy and strategic waterways.
• Iran's Capacity to Disrupt: Iran has the capacity to mine the Strait of Hormuz and disrupt the political economy of energy.
• Consensus on Israel: There is a relative consensus in the Arab world that Israel is out of control and is a central core of instability in the region.
• Popular Revolt: There is a popular revolt brewing under the surface in many countries, including in the Gulf, due to Israel's actions.
• Leverage of Gulf States: Gulf states have leverage through their economic influence, investments in the American economy, and impact on the oil crisis.

Russia and China's Role

• Limited Direct Involvement: Neither Russia nor China is likely to directly intervene militarily in the conflict.
• Political and Economic Interests: Russia and China have their own strategic interests, including relations with the US, the war in Ukraine, and economic stability in the Middle East.
• China's Concerns: China is concerned about the potential disruption of oil supplies from the Middle East.
• Russia's Priorities: Russia's top priority is its relationship with the US and the war in Ukraine, making Iran a secondary concern.
• Strategic Cooperation, Not Alliance: Russia and Iran have strategic cooperation, but not a military alliance that would require Russia to defend Iran.

Potential Scenarios and Escalation

• Iran's Goal: Iran's main goal is to prevent the US from entering the war.
• Retaliation: If the US enters the war, Iran will retaliate by attacking US presence in the region, closing the Strait of Hormuz, and hitting oil facilities.
• Attrition Warfare: Iran may seek to engage in a war of attrition with Israel to erode Israel's achievements.
• Resilience: The question is who is more resilient, Israel or Iran, given Iran's experience in the Iran-Iraq war.
• Spillover: There is a fear that the war will spill over into neighboring territories.

Regime Change in Iran

• Netanyahu's Goal: Netanyahu's overarching strategic aim is regime change in Iran.
• No Alternative Leader: There is no clear alternative leader to the current regime inside or outside Iran.
• Nationalism: The Iranian people are nationalists and will rally around the flag when their nation and sovereignty are attacked.
• Delusional Aim: The idea of regime change is delusional and does not apply to a state like Iran.

Conclusion

The Iran-Israel conflict represents a dangerous escalation with the potential for wider regional and international consequences. While Israel has achieved some tactical successes in disrupting Iran's nuclear program, the long-term strategic implications remain uncertain. The possibility of US military intervention looms large, with the potential to trigger a broader conflict. The Gulf states are primarily concerned with maintaining stability and avoiding a regional war that could devastate their economies. Russia and China are unlikely to directly intervene militarily, but their political and economic interests could be affected. The ultimate outcome of the conflict will depend on the decisions made by key actors in the coming days and weeks, with the potential for significant shifts in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East.