Iran Is Next (Venezuela Was Never About Oil)

Key Concepts

• Monroe Doctrine: US policy opposing European colonization/interference in the Western Hemisphere.
• Heartland Theory: Controlling the center of Eurasia leads to world domination.
• Rimland Theory: Controlling the periphery (coastlines) of Eurasia is more strategically advantageous.
• Strategic Materials/Rare Earths: Resources crucial for modern technology and defense, beyond oil.
• Enforcement Zone: Geographic area where a nation can reliably project military power.
• Leverage: The ability to influence events or negotiations through control of resources or strategic positions.
• Currency Settlement: The currency used for international trade; US dollar dominance is a key factor.

Geopolitical Shift: Venezuela, China, Russia, and the New World Order

The recent developments in Venezuela, characterized by the removal of Nicholas Maduro, represent a significant shift in global geopolitics, extending far beyond a simple quest for oil. While Venezuela’s substantial oil reserves – approximately 300 billion barrels, valued at roughly $17 trillion at $57/barrel (or $9 trillion at 50% off) – initially appear to be the driving force, the situation is far more complex. The value of Venezuelan oil exceeds the GDP of all nations except the US and China, being four times the size of Japan’s economy. However, the operation wouldn’t have occurred years ago when oil production was higher and infrastructure intact if oil was the sole motivator.

The True Motivations: Beyond Oil

The core issue isn’t oil acquisition, but the prevention of rival powers establishing a foothold in the Western Hemisphere. As Marco Rubio stated, “We don’t need Venezuela’s oil. We have plenty of oil in the United States. What we're not going to allow is for the oil industry in Venezuela to be controlled by adversaries of the United States.” This highlights a broader strategy focused on maintaining US dominance and preventing the emergence of a competing power base. The Pentagon, rather than the President, initiates these actions based on analysis of US interests.

The Three Conditions for US Intervention

The decision to intervene, as outlined, hinges on three key conditions:

1. Rival Power Presence: A rival power establishes itself in a strategically important region.
2. Global Impact: The region begins to affect global trade, security, or leverage.
3. Enforcement Zone Proximity: The region is located within or near the US’s military enforcement zone (the Western Hemisphere).

Venezuela met all three criteria. While oil is a resource, the US is more concerned with strategic materials – rare earths – essential for modern weaponry and technology.

China’s Role and the Threat to US Dollar Dominance

China’s significant investment of $100 billion in Venezuela and its close relationship with the Maduro government posed a direct threat. The US fears China gaining discounted oil access, conducting trade in currencies other than the US dollar, and establishing a “secondary economy” independent of US control. This currency settlement issue is critical, as the US seeks to maintain the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency. As stated, the concern is that other countries will “trade in their own currencies…get right around the dollar.”

Venezuela as a Base of Operations

Beyond resources, Venezuela was hosting foreign advisors and facilitating intelligence sharing, representing a projection of power within the US’s sphere of influence. This combination of geographic proximity, resource control, and security cooperation triggered the intervention. The Pentagon’s decision-making process considers these factors – geography, resources (especially strategic materials like silver, gold, rare earths), and security – to determine when intervention is necessary.

Geopolitical Theories: Monroe Doctrine, Heartland, and Rimland

The situation in Venezuela is best understood through the lens of established geopolitical theories:

• Monroe Doctrine (1823): Originally aimed at preventing European colonization in the Americas, the doctrine has evolved to encompass any foreign influence that threatens US interests in the Western Hemisphere. Rubio’s statement directly echoes this doctrine, asserting the US’s right to control its “half of the world.”
• Heartland Theory: This theory, focused on controlling the center of Eurasia, is less directly relevant to Venezuela but provides context for Russia’s actions.
• Rimland Theory: This theory emphasizes the importance of controlling the periphery of Eurasia – the coastlines and trade routes. Russia’s focus on Crimea and Ukraine, and China’s interest in Taiwan, are explained by this theory. Controlling maritime access is crucial.

Future Implications: Iran and the Consolidation of Power

The speaker suggests a pattern of consolidation among major powers, each securing its “non-negotiables.” This leads to a prediction that Iran is likely the next focal point for US action. Iran’s strategic importance stems from:

• Control of the Strait of Hormuz: A critical choke point for global oil supply (approximately 15% of the world’s oil passes through it).
• Oil Supply to China and Russia: Circumventing US sanctions and reducing reliance on the US dollar.
• Coordination with Russia: Providing drones and weapons, undermining US interests.
• Relationship with Israel: Iran’s threat to Israel is a key US security concern.

This aligns with a broader pattern: the US securing the Western Hemisphere, China focusing on Taiwan (semiconductors and supply chains), and Russia prioritizing Ukraine (maritime access). The speaker acknowledges this is a working theory, not official policy, but argues it explains recent events.

International Law and Enforcement

The speaker notes that international law is only effective if a nation has the power to enforce it. Condemnation without enforcement is meaningless.

In conclusion, the events in Venezuela are not simply about oil. They represent a strategic move by the US to maintain its dominance in the Western Hemisphere, counter the influence of rival powers like China and Russia, and secure access to critical resources. Understanding the underlying geopolitical theories – the Monroe Doctrine, Heartland, and Rimland – is crucial for interpreting current events and anticipating future developments in the evolving global landscape.