Iran: 'Going back to war is not in anyone's interest,' risk analyst says • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint for global oil transit, currently under a mutual blockade by the U.S. and Iran.
• Decapitation Strikes: Military strategy aimed at removing the leadership of a regime to force its collapse.
• Resistance Economy: An Iranian economic strategy designed to withstand external sanctions and military pressure.
• Poly-crisis: A situation where multiple global crises (economic, humanitarian, and geopolitical) intersect and exacerbate one another.
• Jawboning: The practice of using rhetoric or public statements (specifically by Donald Trump) to influence market expectations and volatility.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A branch of the Iranian Armed Forces, often utilizing proxies like the Houthis to project power.

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1. Geopolitical Impasse and Military Strategy

The current ceasefire is viewed as a calculated pause rather than a resolution. The expert argues that the U.S. administration is currently "stuck" because its initial military strategy—a short-term bombing campaign intended to topple the Iranian regime—failed to achieve its objectives.

• Failed Calculus: The U.S. expected a quick victory; when the regime remained intact after six weeks, the strategy shifted to a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
• Internal Unity: Contrary to the belief that external pressure would fracture the Iranian leadership, the expert notes that the "wartime footing" has actually forced a temporary, forced unity within the Iranian regime.

2. Economic and Humanitarian Impact

The blockade has created significant disruptions in global supply chains, extending beyond crude oil.

• Energy Markets: While Brent crude and WTI prices have remained relatively stable due to U.S. "jawboning," refined products like jet fuel are experiencing acute shortages, leading to flight cancellations (e.g., Lufthansa).
• Agricultural Crisis: The conflict is severely impacting the supply of fertilizers, which threatens food security in Africa and other regions, potentially leading to widespread hunger.
• Humanitarian Toll in Iran: The civilian population is suffering from a "poly-crisis." Since the start of the war, there have been 13,000 U.S. airstrikes, causing hundreds of billions of dollars in damage to civilian infrastructure, including schools, hospitals, and power plants. Inflation in Iran has reached extreme levels (40% general, 100% food inflation).

3. Risk Management and Business Advisory

Advising clients in this environment is uniquely difficult due to the "unpredictability" of the current U.S. administration.

• Methodology: The expert advises against reacting to individual social media posts or daily rhetoric. Instead, firms should focus on long-term risk mitigation.
• Strategic Outlook: Despite the current chaos, the expert identifies potential for future reconstruction and business opportunities in the region once a new equilibrium is established.

4. The Role of Proxies and Infrastructure

The expert highlights that the conflict could easily escalate if the Iranian regime utilizes its proxies:

• The Houthi Factor: If the Houthis resume attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb, the impact on global shipping would be compounded.
• Pipeline Vulnerability: Existing alternatives, such as the Saudi East-West pipeline and the UAE’s pipeline to Fujairah, are not foolproof, as they remain within striking distance of Iranian missiles and drones.

5. Notable Quotes

• "The irony of the situation is the war basically makes the statement [about internal Iranian divisions] untrue... the continuing blockade is basically keeping the regime more aligned internally than it would be otherwise."
• "We’re all being held hostage essentially by these two sides when speaking in terms of the global economy."
• "The Trump administration prides itself on its unpredictability. It prides itself on using these as negotiating tactics."

6. Synthesis and Conclusion

The conflict has reached a stalemate where neither the U.S. nor Iran is currently positioned to make concessions. While the immediate humanitarian and economic costs are severe—particularly regarding food security and civilian infrastructure—the removal of long-standing leadership (such as Ali Khamenei) may eventually create a vacuum for a new, more pragmatic generation of leadership. The expert concludes with a cautious sense of hope, suggesting that the next one to two years could lead to a new, more stable regional equilibrium, provided that direct negotiations (like those seen in Islamabad) continue to replace indirect, theater-based diplomacy.