Iran crackdown: 'Can a government willing to kill its own people be trusted to reform?'

Key Concepts

• Internet Blackout: Complete disruption of internet access within Iran, currently in its eighth day as of the interview.
• Protest Cycle: Recurring pattern of protests in Iran with decreasing intervals between events.
• Regime Response: The Islamic Republic’s strategy of suppression and portraying stability.
• International Intervention: Debates surrounding potential US involvement and alternative support mechanisms.
• Targeted Sanctions: Focused economic penalties against representatives of the regime, avoiding harm to the general population.
• Starlink: Satellite internet constellation providing connectivity to protestors despite the blackout.

The Current Situation in Iran: Protests, Blackout, and International Response

The interview focuses on the ongoing protests in Iran, which began on December 28th, 2025, and are currently entering their third week. A key characteristic of this period is an unprecedented, complete internet blackout lasting eight days as of the interview date. This blackout severely hinders the ability to accurately assess the situation on the ground, with information primarily sourced from footage transmitted via Starlink devices. This footage reveals a significant escalation in the brutality of the security forces’ crackdown compared to previous protest movements.

Regime Strategy and Future Protests

The Islamic Republic is attempting to project an image of security and stability, aiming to demonstrate complete control over the population. However, Dr. Rahu Kuchisani emphasizes that the underlying grievances fueling the protests remain unaddressed. He notes a historical trend in Iran: the time between successive protest movements is shortening. Therefore, even if the current wave of protests is suppressed, another outbreak is highly probable in a relatively short timeframe. He states, “even if the current wave of protests might be suppressed for now, we really don’t know… but even if that were the case, this doesn’t mean that future protests in a much shorter span of time will not sort of… uh start again.”

Prospects for Reform

Dr. Kuchisani deems the possibility of meaningful reforms by the current regime “too far-fetched.” He cites escalating death tolls – estimates from human rights organizations indicate a significant increase in fatalities over the past week – as evidence of the government’s willingness to use extreme force against its own citizens. He argues that the opportunity for reform has passed, questioning how a government capable of such violence could be expected to implement positive change.

International Intervention and US Role

The discussion addresses the complex issue of international intervention, specifically referencing former US President Donald Trump’s initial promises of support to the protesters. Dr. Kuchisani explains that Trump’s statements initially encouraged greater participation in the protests, but his subsequent failure to deliver on those promises led to widespread disappointment among Iranians. He clarifies that expecting a military strike or bombardment as a solution is unrealistic.

Instead, he advocates for a multi-pronged approach from the international community:

• Restoring Internet Access: Prioritizing efforts to re-establish internet connectivity for Iranians is paramount, enabling them to communicate with the outside world. He states, “internet is the main sort of aim for for Iranians to be able to… reach a global audience.”
• Action Over Words: Moving beyond mere condemnation and enacting concrete measures to support the Iranian people.
• Downgrading Diplomatic Ties: Reducing diplomatic relations with the Islamic Republic to exert pressure on the regime.
• Targeted Sanctions: Implementing sanctions specifically aimed at representatives of the Islamic Republic, avoiding broad-based sanctions that disproportionately harm ordinary Iranian citizens.

Logical Connections and Synthesis

The interview establishes a clear connection between the regime’s repressive tactics, the unaddressed grievances of the population, and the likelihood of future protests. The discussion on international intervention highlights the limitations of military solutions and emphasizes the importance of supporting Iranian citizens through alternative means, particularly restoring internet access and applying targeted pressure on the regime.

The central takeaway is that while the current protests may be suppressed, the underlying issues remain, and the situation in Iran is likely to remain volatile. Effective international support requires a strategic approach focused on empowering the Iranian people and holding the regime accountable, rather than relying on potentially counterproductive military intervention.