Iran: Can diplomacy succeed when both sides keep hedging their positions? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Strait of Hormuz: A critical maritime chokepoint for global energy supplies; its closure by Iran is a primary driver of current economic inflation and US diplomatic urgency.
• Deterrence: The central strategic objective for Iran; the belief that they must demonstrate military resilience to prevent future US/Israeli aggression.
• Abraham Accords: A series of normalization agreements between Israel and various Arab nations, which the US is currently pushing to expand.
• Kinetic Action: Military operations involving active combat or physical force.
• Kabuki Theater: A metaphor used to describe the choreographed, performative nature of the current US-Iran negotiations where both sides signal strength for domestic audiences.
• Frozen Assets: Approximately $25 billion in Iranian funds held globally, including $12 billion in Qatar, which are central to the current negotiation framework.

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1. Main Topics and Key Points

• Negotiation Status: The US and Iran are engaged in indirect talks in Doha. While President Trump has signaled potential for a deal, he simultaneously threatens a return to "bigger and stronger" conflict. Experts suggest the talks are not mere theater but are hampered by hardliners in both Washington and Tehran.
• The Two-Track Framework:
  • Phase 1: Reopening the Strait of Hormuz, lifting the US naval blockade, and unfreezing Iranian assets (specifically the $12 billion in Qatar).
  • Phase 2: Addressing the nuclear program, which is being deferred for 30–60 days.
• Strategic Impasse: The US lacks "good" military options, as further strikes are unlikely to force Iranian capitulation. Conversely, Iran is under severe economic and military pressure but refuses to collapse, prioritizing the restoration of deterrence over immediate economic relief.

2. Important Examples and Real-World Applications

• The "Pre-War" Reality: Analysts note that if the US succeeds in reopening the Strait and securing a nuclear deal similar to the 2015 JCPOA, it effectively returns the region to "ground zero," raising questions about the strategic value of the war initiated on February 28.
• The Abraham Accords: President Trump’s demand for Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and others to join the Accords is viewed by experts as a "win-extraction" strategy to justify the war's costs. Experts deem this highly unlikely, noting that the UAE’s status as a signatory has made it a target for Iranian attacks.

3. Methodologies and Frameworks

• Negotiation Strategy: Iran is described as having "mastered the art of negotiation" (the "bazaar culture"). Their strategy involves using the Strait of Hormuz as leverage to secure immediate economic relief while stalling on the "thorny" nuclear issues.
• De-escalation Management: The current process is characterized as a managed de-escalation where both sides seek to avoid a return to full-scale hostilities, with experts estimating a 60–70% chance of a preliminary framework agreement.

4. Key Arguments and Perspectives

• US Perspective: President Trump is under pressure to show results due to domestic inflation and gas prices. However, his rhetoric is criticized by experts as "bluster" that undermines his own diplomatic standing.
• Iranian Perspective: Iran views the war as a failure of their previous deterrence. Their "North Star" is to ensure that at the end of the conflict, they have re-established a level of deterrence that prevents future attacks.
• Israeli Perspective: Israel feels sidelined. Having entered the war with goals of regime change, dismantling the nuclear program, ending the ballistic missile program, and neutralizing proxies, they now view the potential US-Iran deal as a failure to achieve any of these objectives.

5. Notable Quotes

• Donald Trump: "It will only be a great deal for all or no deal at all. Back to the battlefront and shooting, but bigger and stronger than ever before."
• Fawaz Gerges: "President Trump confuses bluster and threats with diplomacy. He undermines America's standing in the world."
• Emily Gordin (on US-Israel relations): "Israel seems to have gone from a co-instigator or partner in this war to a bystander in the span of only a few weeks."

6. Data and Research Findings

• Economic Impact: The war has caused significant global economic pain, specifically regarding energy and fertilizer prices.
• Humanitarian Crisis: In Gaza, Israeli strikes have killed over 900 Palestinians during the ceasefire period. The UN Human Rights Chief has characterized the situation as an "unrelenting pattern of killings" and a "continuing disregard of Palestinian lives."

7. Synthesis and Conclusion

The current situation is a volatile, high-stakes diplomatic dance. The US is attempting to cut its losses and stabilize the global economy by reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran is leveraging its position to secure economic assets and re-establish military deterrence. The nuclear issue remains the primary "unbridgeable" gap, and the exclusion of Israel from the core decision-making process has created significant friction in the US-Israel alliance. While a preliminary deal is likely, the underlying regional tensions—particularly regarding Iran's nuclear ambitions and Israel's security concerns—remain unresolved, leaving the region in a state of precarious instability.