Iran believes US is ‘not serious’ and ‘killing time’ in negotiations: Analysis

Key Concepts

• JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action): The international nuclear agreement that the US withdrew from under Donald Trump.
• Strait of Hormuz: A critical international shipping chokepoint where Iran claims territorial sovereignty.
• Innocent Passage: A principle under international maritime law that allows vessels to pass through territorial waters; Iran argues it has the right to restrict this for hostile nations.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): The branch of the Iranian Armed Forces responsible for the country's aerospace and maritime defense.

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1. Iranian Conditions for Ending Hostilities

According to Professor Mustafa Koshm, Iran has outlined specific prerequisites to cease the current conflict:

• Sanctions Relief: A formal negotiation process to lift US-imposed economic sanctions.
• Naval Blockade: The immediate cessation of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports.
• Comprehensive Ceasefire: An end to hostilities across all fronts, accompanied by binding guarantees against future attacks.

2. Perspectives on Diplomacy and Negotiations

Professor Koshm presents a skeptical view of the current diplomatic climate:

• US Intentions: Iran views the US as an "unreliable partner" that is not interested in genuine diplomacy. Koshm argues that Washington is "killing time" to prepare for further military action rather than seeking a resolution.
• The "Bombing" of Negotiations: Koshm asserts that the US has effectively "bombed the negotiating table" twice in the past year and highlights the US withdrawal from the JCPOA and other international accords as evidence of bad faith.
• The Door to Diplomacy: While Koshm claims the door remains open from the Iranian side, he asserts that the US has effectively closed it, suggesting that Tehran anticipates a resumption of full-scale war within approximately one week.

3. Military Preparedness and Deterrence

• Readiness: Iran maintains a posture of constant military readiness, with Koshm noting that "fingers are on the trigger."
• Deterrence Strategy: The IRGC Aerospace Force and General Musevi have issued warnings that any initial strike by the US will be met with "massive fire."
• Recent Clashes: The last 10 days have seen increased tensions in the Persian Gulf, which Koshm cites as evidence of Iran’s capability and willingness to respond to provocations with full force.

4. Sovereignty and the Strait of Hormuz

A significant point of contention is Iran’s assertion of control over the Strait of Hormuz:

• Territorial Claims: Iran justifies its authority by stating that primary shipping lanes pass through its territorial waters, specifically near the Greater Tunb and Abu Musa islands.
• Legal Justification: Iran claims the right to restrict "innocent passage" for vessels carrying cargo for the US, Israel, or nations aiding them in the conflict.
• Global Backlash: While acknowledging that this position is debated internationally, Koshm maintains that Iran is exercising its sovereign rights to protect its interests and restrict hostile logistics.

5. Synthesis and Conclusion

The interview highlights a profound breakdown in trust between Tehran and Washington. From the Iranian perspective, the US is not a credible negotiator but an aggressor preparing for war. Iran’s strategy is twofold: maintaining a high-readiness military posture to deter or respond to attacks, and leveraging its geographic control over the Strait of Hormuz to exert pressure on the US and its allies. The core takeaway is that, despite the rhetoric of diplomacy, both sides appear to be bracing for an escalation of conflict rather than a negotiated settlement.