Investing in an AI-Driven World | His Excellency Khaldoon Al Mubarak

Key Concepts

• Sovereign Wealth Funds: Investment funds owned by governments, often utilizing surplus revenues (like from oil & gas) for long-term investment.
• Patient Capital: Long-term investment strategies focused on sustained growth rather than short-term profits.
• AI Adoption & Infrastructure: The rapid global uptake of Artificial Intelligence and the necessary infrastructure (data centers, compute power, energy) to support it.
• Diversification: Reducing economic reliance on a single industry (e.g., oil & gas) by investing in multiple sectors.
• Geopolitical Investment Strategy: Considering global political landscapes and regional dynamics when making investment decisions.
• Long-Term vs. Short-Term Investment Horizons: The differing approaches and pressures faced by investors with varying timeframes for returns.
• Technological Disruption: The impact of new technologies on existing industries and economies.

Mubadala & the Future of Investment

Khaldoon Al Mubarak, CEO of Mubadala Investment Company, discusses the evolving landscape of global investment, particularly in the context of rapid technological advancements and geopolitical shifts. Mubadala, a sovereign wealth fund owned by the Abu Dhabi government, manages approximately $380 billion in assets. Al Mubarak emphasizes a long-term investment philosophy, contrasting it with the quarter-to-quarter pressures faced by many investment firms. He states, “I get judged on performance over three years, five years, ten years. And therefore, our decision making…takes a different lens.” This allows for a more patient approach, recognizing that some investments require time to mature and deliver substantial returns.

The Shifting Investment Landscape: From "Good Old Days" to AI Age

Al Mubarak acknowledges a significant shift in the investment environment. He candidly states, “Last ten years were the good old days.” He predicts the next three to five years will be challenging, driven by the disruptive force of Artificial Intelligence. He believes generating the same level of returns achieved in the past decade will be considerably more difficult. This assessment is rooted in the belief that the world has “evolved…quite dramatically” due to technology, creating a more “tumultuous” investment climate. He anticipates a challenging but exciting road ahead, recognizing the “magnitude of the challenge” in maintaining strong returns.

UAE as a Global Leader in AI Adoption

The conversation highlights the UAE’s leading position in AI adoption, citing a Microsoft AI Diffusion Report that places the country first globally, with 64% of the population utilizing AI as of 2025, surpassing Singapore (60%). Al Mubarak attributes this success to a comprehensive, top-down approach. He emphasizes the government’s proactive embrace of AI, the willingness of businesses to invest in the technology, and its widespread adoption across society. He notes, “It’s embraced across the board.” This is further exemplified by the UAE’s government app, offering over 1,100 services to citizens through an AI agent, streamlining processes like traffic fine payments, healthcare access, and license renewals. He describes a feedback loop where citizens can report issues via AI and receive timely updates, rooted in a traditional culture of responsiveness. A striking example is the emergency service utilizing AI to direct patients to the hospital with the shortest wait times and specialized care available. He recounts an anecdote of a 92-year-old man with limited formal education proficiently using the app, demonstrating the technology’s accessibility and societal integration.

Lessons from Diversification: From Pearls to Oil & Gas to Technology

Al Mubarak draws parallels between past technological disruptions and the current AI revolution, referencing the collapse of the pearl diving industry in Abu Dhabi a century ago due to the invention of artificial pearls. This experience underscored the importance of economic diversification. The subsequent discovery of oil and gas provided a new economic foundation, but even then, a diversification strategy was implemented from the outset. This led to a shift from an 80/20 GDP split (80% energy, 20% other) to a more balanced economy over 30 years. Now, the UAE is applying this lesson to the transition towards renewable energy and, subsequently, to AI. He explains the strategy: “renewables are going to change the way we think of energy…be it solar, be it wind, be it nuclear…it's coming.” Mubadala is investing heavily in renewables and positioning itself to capitalize on the intersection of energy and AI, viewing AI as a new “barrel” fueled by energy.

Supply, Demand, and the "Bubble" Question

Addressing concerns about a potential AI “bubble,” Al Mubarak believes demand currently significantly exceeds supply, particularly in areas like data center capacity, GPUs, and chips. He anticipates this imbalance will persist for the foreseeable future, making these areas attractive for investment. While acknowledging potential bubbles in valuations of AI companies, he remains bullish on the growth prospects of hyperscalers like Microsoft. He breaks down the analysis, stating, “On data center, GPUs, chips obviously, energy, I think the supply-to-demand situation is clear to me. We are in a shortage across the board.”

Geopolitical Positioning & Investment in Africa

The UAE’s strategic geographic location is highlighted as an advantage, serving as a bridge to markets in Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East, and Africa, representing a combined market of over 2.5 billion people. Al Mubarak emphasizes the importance of understanding each African country individually, rejecting a simplistic, pan-African approach. He stresses the need for a long-term, relationship-focused investment strategy in Africa, stating, “If you approach Africa with a transactional view, you will fail.” He advocates for investing in people, building infrastructure, and taking a patient approach to achieve mutually beneficial outcomes.

Optimism and the Future of Technology

Despite acknowledging global challenges, Al Mubarak expresses unwavering optimism about the future, believing “tomorrow is going to be better than yesterday.” He sees immense opportunities in technology, particularly in healthcare, where AI has the potential to revolutionize treatment and improve lives. He believes advancements in AI will lead to solutions for many of humanity’s most pressing health challenges within his lifetime.

Values and Generational Advice

Reflecting on his role as a father, Al Mubarak emphasizes the importance of upholding core values while acknowledging the changing world. He believes the next generation is “significantly smarter” and requires different advice, but the fundamental values instilled by his father and grandfather remain timeless. He concludes, “values, certain values are timeless. And those that we cherish we have to keep alive.”

Notable Quote:

“Last ten years were the good old days. Now, in the age of AI, I can't talk ten years. Yeah, now I talk three years. And maybe five.” – Khaldoon Al Mubarak, CEO of Mubadala Investment Company.

This conversation provides a nuanced perspective on the future of investment, emphasizing the importance of long-term thinking, adaptability, and a commitment to societal benefit in the face of rapid technological change.