India-Pakistan clash: the dangerous ‘new normal’ | Global Eyes

Key Concepts

• India-Pakistan conflict
• Kashmir dispute
• Nuclear flashpoint
• China-Pakistan relations
• US-India relations
• Military technology
• Indo-Pacific strategy
• Confidence-building measures
• Disinformation
• Colonial legacy

How Dangerous is the New Normal?

• The India-Pakistan relationship is considered "quite dangerous" due to repeated crises since becoming nuclear powers in 1998.
• This was the sixth crisis since 1998.
• The conflict escalated faster than ever before.
• The interplay of advanced military technologies increases the danger.
• The situation is precarious, with the potential for another limited war.

Drivers of the Crisis

• Domestic political calculations in both India and Pakistan exacerbate the conflict.
• The Hindu nationalist BJP in India uses the foundational animosity stemming from partition to its political advantage.
• In Pakistan, the conflict initially boosted General Asim Munir's approval ratings, which were previously low.
• External conflict is used as a tool for internal legitimacy.
• The conflict is not just about politics but also about unresolved identities, often rooted in colonial continuities.
• The lack of vision in creating flexible structures that allow diverse identities to coexist is a key factor.

The Kashmiri Perspective

• Kashmiris suffer the most in these conflicts, and their voices are rarely heard.
• A 2020 Al Jazeera survey indicated that Kashmiri youth wanted fewer security forces, suggesting suppression in Indian-administered Kashmir.
• Kashmiris face restrictions on movement and daily life due to increased security forces.
• Kashmir is known for pellet gun victims, with many young people blinded.
• Kashmiris are divided in their desires and needs from India, Pakistan, and the international community.
• The ruling BJP's actions in 2019, such as scrapping the special status of Indian-administered Kashmir, triggered insecurities among locals.
• There has been an anti-India insurgency since 1989, with a new phase of militancy emerging after 2019.
• Militant outfits resist New Delhi's moves, such as diluting the demographics by bringing in outsiders.

China's Role

• China is a player in the conflict due to Pakistan ceding the Shakgam Valley in 1963.
• China condemned New Delhi's decision to reorganize the state into two federally run union territories in 2019.
• China has invested heavily in Pakistan-administered Kashmir through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
• New Delhi did not fully consider the China factor when making the 2019 changes.
• This contributed to the border crisis between India and China in 2020.
• Pakistan feels more secure knowing it has China's backing.
• India's strategic insecurity is a two-front war with both Pakistan and China.
• China is filling the gap left by the US in supporting Pakistan.

Chinese Military Technology

• This conflict marked the first time many Chinese weapon systems were used in combat.
• The J-10C fighter jet and PL-15 air-to-air missiles, both Chinese-made, were used by Pakistan.
• This is a wake-up call for the US and its allies, as it demonstrates the efficiency of Chinese weapon systems.
• India may feel the need to invest more in its defense manufacturing industry.

Winners and Losers

• There were no real winners in this crisis.
• Both Pakistan and India are claiming victory in different ways.
• The conflict highlighted that India might need to do more investment in its defense manufacturing industry.
• The Chinese have caught up in terms of weapon systems.
• The West tends to look at every conflict from its vantage point.
• It should be looked at as a new nuclear flash point rather than looking for winners and losers.
• The defense attaches of the West were keenly following the hostilities and realized the escalation was going at a faster rate and both sides were not really in control of these escalation dynamics.

US-India Relations

• Modi expected more support from the US.
• The US and India need each other, but the relationship is not as tight as India might have hoped.
• India has been drafted into the US's Indo-Pacific strategy.
• India is frustrated that the US does not back it in the same way that China backs Pakistan or the US backs Ukraine and Israel.
• The US-India relationship is a solid one, but it is more transactional than India realized.
• India has been clear that it will not be on the front lines with other US allies in a Taiwan contingency.
• There is a certain discomfort between India and the US.
• The ecosystem that supports the government and the ruling party have been deeply disappointed with the United States and other allies also the quad partners for not coming in support of India.

South Asia as a Testing Ground

• South Asia is the only region in the world with two nuclear weapon states actively modernizing their arsenals.
• This dynamic has not been on the radar of major Western countries.
• India and Pakistan have considered themselves responsible nuclear weapons states.
• They have a nuclear non-attack agreement (NNA) and a ballistic missile pre-notification agreement.
• This is the first crisis where Chinese, American, Russian, and French weapon systems interacted in a significant way.
• Many vulnerabilities have come to light.

Dangers to Mutual Safety Mechanisms

• There is a danger of losing the mutual safety mechanisms that keep both nuclear powers in check.
• India's potential suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty sets a precedent for other bilateral agreements being up for grabs.
• If nuclear confidence-building measures weaken, it will be a bigger problem.
• India and Pakistan do not have diplomatic relations since 2019.
• Each side recalled their military diplomats during the crisis.
• The lack of diplomatic relations and declining track 1.5 and track two dialogues create an environment of inflated threat perceptions.
• There is very limited space to hurt each other and now that space will be explored to find probably new creative ways to hurt each other.
• Drone warfare and missiles were used to attack each other deep inside both countries for the first time.
• This was probably very close to the red line.
• There has been an explosion of disinformation.

Conclusion

The India-Pakistan conflict remains a dangerous and complex issue, exacerbated by domestic politics, unresolved identities, and the involvement of external powers like China and the US. The increasing use of advanced military technologies and the potential erosion of confidence-building measures raise the risk of escalation. The conflict also highlights the need to address the Kashmiri perspective and the importance of maintaining stable diplomatic relations between India and Pakistan. South Asia has become a testing ground for rival military technologies, and the international community must pay closer attention to the region's dynamics to prevent further escalation and potential nuclear conflict.