In what ways are the fates of Belarus and Ukraine connected? | DW News

Key Concepts

• Belarus-Ukraine Connection: The intertwined fates of Belarus and Ukraine, both seen as targets of Russian imperialistic ambitions.
• Russian Imperialism: Russia's perception of Belarus and Ukraine as "proxies" or "appendages" rather than independent nations.
• European Security: Belarus's current role as a launchpad for Russian aggression against Ukraine and its implications for broader European security.
• Dictatorship vs. Democracy: The ongoing struggle between authoritarian regimes and democratic aspirations in the region.
• Sanctions and Diplomacy: The use of sanctions as a tool to pressure authoritarian regimes and the complexities of diplomatic engagement.
• Political Prisoners: The use of individuals as bargaining chips by authoritarian leaders.
• Exile and Resistance: The challenges and strategies of leading a democratic movement from exile.
• Democracy as a Fight: The idea that democracy is not a given but something that must be actively fought for and defended.

Summary

Lana Chikovskaya, the exiled leader of the Belarusian democratic movement and a prominent challenger to Alexander Lukashenko, argues that Belarus is now central to Europe's security and that its fate is inextricably linked to that of Ukraine.

The Intertwined Fates of Belarus and Ukraine

Chikovskaya emphasizes that both Belarus and Ukraine are viewed by Russia, with its "imperialistic ambitions," not as sovereign nations but as "proxies" or "appendages." Both countries aspire to break free from Russian influence and rejoin the "European family of countries." The outcome of Russia's invasion of Ukraine is seen as crucial for Belarus. Chikovskaya states, "both our countries are on the front line of fighting against dictatorship, against tyranny and of course the fate of Ukraine and Belarus and actually the whole Europe is decided now on the battlefields of Ukraine." A Ukrainian victory would present an opportunity for Belarusians to change their internal situation. Conversely, a democratic Belarus is essential for Ukraine's security, as a Lukashenko regime would continue to serve as a "launching pad for further attacks, for constant provocations or blackmail in Ukraine," thus jeopardizing peace and security for the entire region. This shared struggle leads many Belarusians to fight alongside Ukrainians, perceiving it as their own fight.

Belarus as a Launchpad for Russian Aggression

Chikovskaya clarifies the distinction between Lukashenko's regime and the Belarusian people. She asserts that it was Lukashenko who allied with Putin and provided Belarusian territory for the invasion of Ukraine, with the first missiles launched from Belarusian soil. This action was taken "against the will of Belarusian people," who are described as "fully on the side of Ukrainians," an "anti-war nation," and a "pro-Europe, pro-Ukrainian nation." Consequently, Lukashenko is held accountable for "war crimes."

Diplomatic Activity and Peace in Ukraine

Regarding the diplomatic efforts between Ukraine and Washington, Chikovskaya stresses that peace in Ukraine must be achieved "on Ukrainian conditions." While acknowledging the ongoing discussions and the desire for regional peace, she warns that Ukraine must not lose the war. A Ukrainian defeat would embolden Russia, leading to further ambitions and threats to Europe, including testing European borders through actions like "balloons over Lithuania, drones over Poland, migration attacks on the borders." She posits that Russia's problem is a lack of defined borders, and the question is "who will be the next" if Ukraine falls.

US Engagement with Minsk and Political Prisoners

Chikovskaya discusses reports of negotiations between the Trump administration and Belarus concerning the release of political prisoners in exchange for sanctions relief. She expresses gratitude to President Trump and his administration for engaging in this "purely humanitarian track" aimed at saving lives. She notes that there are currently "1,300 people behind bars" in Belarus. She clarifies that this engagement is not a change in US policy but a priority on rescuing people. For Lukashenko, political prisoners are "bargaining chips" to be "sold more expensive." The US, in constant communication and coordination with Belarusian democratic forces, is described as "not naive" but prioritizing the rescue of individuals, even while acknowledging who they are dealing with. Chikovskaya encourages the continuation of this track without altering the overall policy.

Demands Beyond Prisoner Release

Chikovskaya advocates for pressing for more than just the release of prisoners. She describes the current process of releasing and then detaining individuals as a "revolving door" that could be endless. She demands a "stop of repressions in Belarus" and calls for "irreversible and systematic" changes. The European Union, she suggests, can play a significant role by supporting political changes while the US continues its humanitarian track. She insists on no lifting of sanctions or policy changes from the European side "until democratization of Belarus until free failure."

The Effectiveness of Sanctions

While acknowledging that sanctions are not "silver bullets," Chikovskaya considers them an "effective instrument" for pressuring Lukashenko, "to empty pockets" and "deprive them resources to support military forces that terrorizing Belarusian people." She emphasizes that sanctions are more effective when harmonized against both Russia and the Belarusian regime to prevent circumvention.

Life in Exile and the Fight for Belarus

Chikovskaya, who is exiled and living primarily in Lithuania, expresses her strong desire to return home. She has been sentenced to "15 years in absentia" and declared an "extremist and terrorist" by the Lukashenko regime. Despite being a target, she and her children wish to return and rebuild their country after "30 years of ruining by Lukashenko regime." Due to the high level of repression, described as being "like in Stalin's time era," visible action inside the country is impossible, necessitating work from exile. In exile, they have managed to build "alternative institutions of power" and formalize relationships with the European Union, European Parliament, USA, Canada, and UK, who perceive them as "true representatives" and engage with them, not with the "illegitimate Lukashenko." This is seen as "de facto recognition, de facto political relationship." They are working for changes and for the "post-Lukashenko era," focusing on reforms and a new constitution to integrate Belarus into European institutions.

A Message to the World

Chikovskaya's message to the world is that democracy is not to be taken for granted but must be fought for. Belarus serves as an example of how easily democracy can be lost and how difficult it is to regain. She states that for those who enjoy democracy, it is a "moral obligation of every nation, every person to support those who are fighting against dictatorship." She warns that "dictatorship in one country can be spilled over to other countries, it's like cancer until you cut it to the very last cell it can go further and further." She urges support for those in need who are "paying the highest price, who sacrifice their freedom and lives for security, for democracy that you enjoy." She concludes by emphasizing that problems will not solve themselves and that "everybody has to contribute."