In new book, Michael McFaul explores the global fight between autocracy and democracy

Key Concepts

• Autocracy vs. Democracy: The central theme of the discussion, exploring the global rise of autocratic regimes and their challenge to democratic systems.
• New Cold War: The concept of a renewed global rivalry, particularly between the U.S. and China, and its similarities and differences with the original Cold War.
• Great Power Competition: The ongoing strategic rivalry between major global powers, with a focus on the U.S., China, and Russia.
• Deterrence and Engagement: Strategies for managing international relations, particularly with autocratic states, involving both the threat of force and diplomatic interaction.
• Alliances: The importance of strong international partnerships for democratic nations in countering autocratic influence.
• Democratic Institutions: The internal strength and resilience of democratic systems, particularly in the face of internal and external pressures.

The Rise of Autocracies and the New Global Disorder

Michael McFaul, former U.S. Ambassador to Russia, analyzes the increasing prevalence of autocracies globally and the threats they pose to "small-d democracy" in his book, "Autocrats vs. Democrats: China, Russia, America, and the new global disorder." He argues that understanding the complexity of these challenges is crucial to avoid policy mistakes.

U.S. Relations with China: A New Cold War?

McFaul discusses the hypothesis of a new cold war with China, identifying both similarities and significant differences compared to the original Cold War with the Soviet Union.

• Similarities:

  • Global Powers: Both the U.S. and China are considered superpowers, ahead of other nations.
  • Ideological Conflict: The book's title itself highlights an ideological struggle between autocracy and democracy.
  • Global Aspirations: Both nations, like the Soviet Union and the U.S. during the Cold War, possess global ambitions.

• Key Differences:

  • Economic Interdependence: The U.S. and Chinese economies are deeply intertwined, unlike the U.S. and Soviet economies. This necessitates a different strategic approach.
  • Global Economic Integration: China is integrated into the global economy in a way the Soviet Union never was, rendering traditional Cold War strategies ineffective.
  • U.S. Internal State:
    • Isolationism: Both major U.S. political parties exhibit greater isolationist tendencies than during the Cold War.
    • Polarization: American society is more polarized today than at any point during the Cold War.

U.S. Relations with Russia: Competition and Cooperation

McFaul examines the relationship between the U.S. and Russia, drawing on his extensive experience. He notes a willingness for engagement between the U.S. President and President Putin.

• Lessons from the Cold War: Even during intense competition and proxy wars, the U.S. and Soviet Union found ways to cooperate on shared interests, such as arms control. McFaul advocates for similar cooperation with Russia today, specifically mentioning the need to extend the New START treaty.
• Putin's Intentions: McFaul expresses concern that President Trump may be naive about Putin's objectives. He believes Putin aims to weaken the United States and the broader democratic world, seeking to dismantle NATO and conquer Ukraine. He asserts that "no amount of schmoozing is going to stop him from pursuing those ideological pursuits."

Strategy for Competing with China

The discussion shifts to the U.S. administration's approach to China, particularly regarding economic competition.

• Complexity of Strategy: McFaul reiterates his central message: "you've got to understand the complexity and if we oversimplify things, we are going to make mistakes as Americans in the world."
• Engagement and Alliances: While acknowledging the value of dialogue with China ("We should talk to everybody"), McFaul criticizes the erosion of U.S. alliances in Asia and Europe. He argues that "tariffing our friends for no apparent reason... divides the democratic world."
• Need for Allies: In the long-term competition with China, McFaul stresses that the U.S. "cannot afford to do this alone" and needs its democratic allies.
• Critique of Coercive Power: McFaul identifies President Trump's affinity for coercive power as a flawed strategy against China.
  • Ineffectiveness: Coercion is unlikely to work with China, as they possess their own leverage and "choke points." A "game of chicken" with China has historically resulted in the U.S. backing down, which is detrimental to national interest.
  • Alienating Allies: Even if coercion were effective, it alienates democratic allies, who are essential for competing with both China and Russia. McFaul advises against coercing allies and instead urges their support.

Great Power Competition and the Risk of War

The conversation addresses the significant stakes of great power competition, including the potential for military conflict.

• Key Concerns: McFaul identifies two primary concerns:
  • NATO and European War: The risk of NATO being drawn into a ground war in Europe due to Russia's ongoing war in Ukraine.
  • China and Taiwan: The possibility of China invading Taiwan and the U.S. and other nations' response.
• "Nonevents" as Successes: McFaul draws a parallel to the Cold War, where the avoidance of war over Taiwan was a significant diplomatic success. He argues that "we now need nonevents in both Europe and Asia, avoid war, and we do that through deterrence and engagement."
• Consequences of Putin's Success: If Putin prevails in Ukraine, McFaul believes it will increase the likelihood of the U.S. being drawn into a European conflict and make Xi Jinping more likely to act against Taiwan.
• Taiwan's Perspective: McFaul notes that people in Taiwan are closely observing the events in Ukraine, understanding the clear implications for their own security.

The Resilience of U.S. Democratic Institutions

McFaul expresses concern about the current state of U.S. democratic institutions, which he believes are being tested like never before.

• Historical Parallels: He likens the current situation to the early years of Putin's presidency in Russia, where he consolidated power by controlling media and suppressing opposition.
• Cautious Optimism: Despite his worries, McFaul is "cautiously optimistic" for two main reasons:
  • Stronger Checks and Balances: U.S. institutions, including independent media, parliament, opposition parties, and civil society, are more robust than those in early 2000s Russia.
  • Experience with Democracy: The U.S. possesses centuries of experience with democracy, a resource Russia lacked at the time.
• The Fight for Democracy: McFaul emphasizes that preserving democratic institutions is "the biggest, hardest fight for consolidating and preserving democratic institutions in the United States of America" in his lifetime. He stresses that it requires active participation and a willingness for people to "fight for the things that are in that constitution."

Conclusion

Michael McFaul's analysis highlights the complex and multifaceted challenges posed by the rise of autocracies. He advocates for nuanced strategies that acknowledge economic interdependence, leverage alliances, and prioritize deterrence and engagement. Crucially, he underscores the vital importance of protecting and strengthening democratic institutions, both domestically and internationally, as the primary bulwark against autocratic expansion. The fight for democracy, he concludes, is an ongoing and demanding endeavor.