"I think bottles of vodka are popping in the Kremlin as we speak" | DW News

Summary of YouTube Video:

Key Concepts:

• Trump administration's proposed peace plan for Ukraine
• Recognition of Russian control over Crimea
• Freezing territorial lines
• US foreign policy shift
• Transatlantic split over Ukraine
• Security guarantees for Ukraine
• Ceasefire negotiations
• US support for Ukraine

Trump's Peace Plan and Ukrainian Rejection

The video discusses US President Trump's push for a peace deal in Ukraine, which is perceived as favoring Russia. Trump criticized Ukrainian President Zelensky for rejecting the US terms, which involve freezing territorial lines and recognizing Russian control over Crimea. This is a red line for Ukraine and its European allies.

US Diplomacy and Russian Response

While European leaders met with Ukrainian representatives in London (without US Secretary of State Marco Rubio), Trump's special envoy, Steven Witkoff, is scheduled to meet with Vladimir Putin in Moscow. The Kremlin has expressed satisfaction with these developments. Vice President JD Vance stated the US has been engaged in diplomacy to understand the perspectives of both Ukrainians and Russians and believes they have a "very fair proposal." He expressed optimism about reaching a broad agreement to stop the killing, freeze territorial lines, and establish a long-term diplomatic settlement.

Historical Context and Policy Shift

Tyson Barker, a foreign policy analyst, highlights the contrast between the current proposed deal and the Trump administration's 2018 declaration, signed by Secretary of State Pompeo, rejecting Russia's annexation of Crimea. This declaration was modeled after the Wells Declaration of 1940, where the US refused to recognize the Soviet Union's annexation of the Baltic states. Barker argues that the current approach represents a "complete betrayal" of US foreign policy for the last half-century, a repudiation of international law, and a validation of changing borders by force.

Credibility of US Threat to Walk Away

Barker notes that the Trump administration has a history of threatening to walk away from negotiations, but cooler heads often prevail. He expresses hope that a consensus can be forged that aligns with Ukraine's needs and the red lines of its European partners. He emphasizes that any lasting peace requires European and Ukrainian buy-in.

Transatlantic Split and Kremlin's Perspective

Barker suggests that the Kremlin is pleased with the potential transatlantic split over Ukraine. He argues that European capitals and Ukraine should prepare for the possibility of an abrupt and unilateral reversal of US support for Ukraine, including intelligence and weapons support. He describes the current period as a "very turbulent" time in US-European relations.

Alternative Perspectives on the Peace Deal

Charles Kupchan, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, believes Trump is frustrated by the lack of progress in ending the war. He acknowledges the possibility of the US "walking away" but is unsure what that entails. Kupchan notes that a meeting is taking place in London to find a ceasefire, while Trump's envoy is in Russia. He emphasizes that Putin's demands, such as a demilitarized Ukraine, are "poison pills."

Pragmatism vs. Principle

Kupchan argues that "at some point you have to let pragmatism trump principle." While acknowledging Russia's illegal actions, he suggests that Ukraine may not have the military capability to expel Russian forces from eastern Ukraine and Crimea. He supports a freeze in place to end the fighting and ensure the independence of the remaining Ukrainian territory but opposes recognizing Russian control of Crimea.

Critique of Trump's Approach

Kupchan criticizes Trump's approach of blaming Ukraine for the war and cutting off aid, arguing that it incentivizes Putin to continue aggression. He believes the US should support Ukraine to strengthen its negotiating position.

Ukrainian Perspective and Security Guarantees

Tori Tossig, director at the Atlantic Council, states that Zelensky will not accept Russian recognition of the occupation of Crimea, as it violates the Ukrainian constitution. She believes the proposed peace plan is unsustainable and heavily favors Russia. She notes that Trump suggested Ukraine could continue fighting for three years but would lose all its territory without US support.

European Support and Contingency Planning

Tossig highlights that the only security assurances currently on the table are from European countries like the UK and France, who are considering a reassurance force in Ukraine. She expects Europeans are planning for a worst-case scenario where the US withdraws support. She emphasizes that Europe will stand with Ukraine "for as long as it takes."

Synthesis/Conclusion

The video presents a complex and evolving situation regarding the US approach to the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration's proposed peace plan, which involves recognizing Russian control over Crimea, has been met with resistance from Ukraine and skepticism from European allies. The potential for a transatlantic split and the uncertainty surrounding US support for Ukraine raise concerns about the future of the conflict and the stability of the region. The video highlights the tension between pragmatism and principle in foreign policy and the challenges of finding a lasting and just resolution to the war.