Key Concepts
- 2025 Market Review & 2026 Predictions: Analysis of 2025 stock performance, categorized using a “Gen Z tier ranking” system, and forecasts for 2026 driven by AI and broader economic trends.
- AI as a Dominant Force: Artificial intelligence is identified as a key driver of growth for companies like Google, Microsoft, ASML, and Palanteer.
- Trademark Law & Ethical Considerations: A detailed examination of the legal dispute between Nike and Hugh Bartlett, framed as an example of unethical “rent-seeking” behavior.
- Qualrram Platform: Promotion of Carlson’s stock analysis platform, highlighting its features and pricing.
2025 Stock Market Performance & 2026 Outlook
The segment began with a review of 2025 stock market performance, utilizing a “Gen Z tier ranking” system – “Goated,” “Locked In,” “Chill,” and “Cooked” – to categorize stocks. Google was highlighted as “Goated,” experiencing a 64.06% gain (excluding dividends), with returns reaching 80-90% for those who bought during dips. This success is attributed to Gemini addressing ChatGPT concerns, strong cloud growth, YouTube’s market share gains, and a favorable legal ruling regarding Chrome. Carlson personally realized over $90,000 in gains from Google stock.
Microsoft (“Locked In”) saw a 16% increase, driven by its transformation into an “AI toolbox” centered around Azure cloud services. Uber (“Locked In”) also performed well despite a pullback, benefiting from operating margin expansion and free cash flow growth. ASML (“Goated”) experienced significant gains (52% for US ticker, 30%+ for European tickers) due to the AI surge and increased prices for its lithography machines, alongside revenue from install base management.
Conversely, Salesforce (“Cooked”) declined by 19% due to decelerating revenue growth and a shift in investor focus towards AI companies. Palanteer (“Goated”) saw a substantial 148% increase YTD, but carries a high price-to-sales ratio exceeding 100. Other notable performances included FICO (down 11% YTD, down 74% over 5 years), Netflix (up 5-6% YTD), Amazon (up 5% YTD, Carlson up 10.3% due to dip buying), and Apple (up 12% YTD).
Looking ahead to 2026, Carlson incorporated predictions from Dan Ives and Tom Lee. Ives noted the intersection of cybersecurity and AI, specifically highlighting CrowdStrike. The segment also touched on the historical performance of the S&P 500, noting that over the past 30 years, the market rose over 10% in 18 of those years, challenging the notion of inevitable mean reversion.
The Nike vs. Hugh Bartlett Trademark Dispute
A significant portion of the segment focused on the legal case between Nike and Hugh Bartlett regarding the “90” trademark. Carlson framed the situation not as a David vs. Goliath story, but as an example of exploitative “rent-seeking” behavior. Bartlett exploited a simple administrative oversight – a failure by Nike to renew the trademark for “90” – despite the company continuing to actively use the brand and maintain deals with Electronic Arts (EA). Carlson emphasized Nike had “no intentions of letting this brand lapse.”
Bartlett then attempted to “extort” Nike for “millions of dollars” by positioning himself within the business, rather than creating any genuine value. Carlson condemned this as “reprehensible behavior” and advocated for societal “shaming” of such tactics, characterizing it as “value extractive behavior.” He contrasted this with the importance of “creating value for people” through innovation – “create a product that they will want to buy.”
The legal basis for Nike’s likely success rests on “common law” principles, specifically the continued use of the trademark despite the lapsed renewal. Carlson believes the judge recognizes this and predicts Bartlett will “not get a dime out of Nike.” He concluded that the only beneficiaries of the dispute are the lawyers involved, designating it as the “fail of the week.”
Qualrram Promotion
The segment began with a promotion of Qualrram, Carlson’s stock analysis platform. He detailed its features, including charts, KPIs, DCF calculations, a Discord community, and exclusive content. Pricing is offered at $10/month or $8/month annually. Carlson announced the platform has gained 3,000 members in the last two months.
Conclusion
The segment provided a comprehensive review of 2025 stock market performance, emphasizing the significant impact of artificial intelligence on growth. It also highlighted the importance of ethical considerations in business and intellectual property law, using the Nike vs. Bartlett case as a cautionary tale against exploitative practices. Ultimately, the segment underscored the value of genuine innovation and long-term investment strategies, while also promoting Carlson’s Qualrram platform as a tool for informed financial decision-making.
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