I Just bought a New Stock‼️

Here's a comprehensive summary of the YouTube video transcript:

Key Concepts

• Public Account Performance: Significant gains, battling a $4 million resistance level.
• Private Stock Group Success: Multiple members achieving seven and six-figure portfolio milestones.
• Stock Analysis: Detailed breakdowns of Revolve, Fubo, AMD, SoFi, Shopify, Honest Company, American Express, and ELF.
• Investment Philosophy: Emphasis on long-term growth, fundamental analysis, risk management, and enduring market volatility.
• Private Group Dynamics: High demand, upcoming net worth requirement increase, and potential closure to new members.
• Personal Journey: The speaker's 17-year journey from humble beginnings to significant wealth, highlighting the role of enduring market downturns.

Public Account Performance and Private Group Success

The speaker reports a strong day for the public account, up approximately $59,000. This account has been in a prolonged battle around the $4 million mark, fluctuating between $3.8 million and $4.2 million over the past month or two. In contrast, the private stock group has seen remarkable success, with four members reaching seven figures and eight members hitting six figures in their portfolios just last week. The speaker congratulates these individuals on achieving new all-time highs.

Stock Analysis

Revolve (RVLV)

• Performance: A significant mover for the day, up double-digit percentages and $4,800. The stock is now up 100% in the public account.
• Company Overview: An e-commerce company specializing in clothing, with an average order value around $300 and a strong female demographic.
• Financials & Execution: Despite economic challenges in 2022-2023, Revolve demonstrated strong execution.
  • Net sales increased by 4% year-over-year.
  • Gross profit increased by 11%.
  • Net income surged by 97%.
• Balance Sheet: Described as "phenomenal" and one of the best globally.
  • Market cap: Approximately $1.5 billion.
  • Cash and cash equivalents: Over $300 million.
  • Total assets: $251 million.
  • Total liabilities: $291 million.
• Outlook: The speaker is happy to be a shareholder, expecting potential for tripling or quadrupling their investment over the next few years. The income statement was graded a B+.

Fubo (FUBO)

• Performance: Moved up nicely, up double-digit percent and $8,000 for the day, now up $36,000 in the public account, trading over $4 per share.
• Speculative Nature: Initially a speculative stock, it is becoming less so as the speaker has owned it.
• Milestone: Broke the $4 barrier and is now up over 80%. The speaker anticipates it will be the next stock in the public account to achieve a triple-digit gain (the eighth such stock).
• Argument for Value: The speaker considers it a "crime" that the stock is trading under $5, given its execution, balance sheet improvements, and connections with Disney.
• Outlook: Expected to surpass $5 soon. It is considered less speculative than ever before and does not belong in the "Goolog" (likely referring to a category of speculative or underperforming stocks).

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD)

• Performance: Despite attempts to push it down, AMD remained green, up over $16,000 for the day and $370,000 in the public account.
• Resilience: Described as one of the strongest stocks in the market, holding up very well.
• Future Growth Drivers: The company's future prospects are the primary driver of its strength.
  • Bull Case (10% probability): 40% annual revenue growth, 50% net income growth, projecting a stock price of $845-$1,100 by 2029. The MI400/450 series entering production late next year is highlighted as a significant catalyst for the data center business.
  • Base Case (80% probability): 35% average revenue growth (2026-2029), 45% average net income growth (2026-2029), projecting a stock price of $670-$800 by 2029, resulting in a ~30% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR). This is the speaker's expectation.
  • Bear Case (10% probability): 20% annual revenue growth, potentially leading to a money-losing scenario between now and 2029. The speaker finds this unlikely due to demand for the 400/450 series.
• Investment Rationale: AMD is a core, large position due to its strong growth potential, offering a rare ~30% CAGR in a realistic base case.
• Story Improvement: The narrative surrounding AMD continues to improve year over year.

SoFi (SOFI)

• Performance: Continues to show remarkable strength, now at a 262% move and up $108,000.
• Resilience: Demonstrates consistent strength despite market volatility, Russell weakness, and fears surrounding other hot stocks.
• Fintech Leadership: The speaker believes SoFi is the most exciting company in fintech, period.
• Comparison with Robinhood (HOOD):
  • Robinhood benefited from retail investor influx, margin trading, and crypto rallies.
  • SoFi is less reliant on volatile assets like stocks and crypto.
  • SoFi's focus on traditional banking and attracting valuable customers (those with bank accounts, taking out loans) is a key differentiator.
  • Recent Performance: In the past month, SoFi is up 18% while Robinhood is down 3%.
• Long-Term Potential: The speaker suggests SoFi could become a larger company than Robinhood long-term, similar to the scale of JP Morgan.

Shopify (SHOP)

• Position: The second-largest position in the speaker's Patreon portfolio, representing almost a 10% stake.
• Performance: Up 146% in the Patreon portfolio.
• Core Holdings Argument: The speaker argues that almost everyone should own Amazon and Shopify, and potentially Meta and Google.
• Company Overview: A platform for merchants, enabling global commerce.
  • Revenue growth: 32% year-over-year.
  • Total global commerce facilitated: $1.4 trillion.
  • Market share: ~12% of US e-commerce.
  • Reach: Available to millions of merchants in 175+ countries.
• Customer Base: Dominates small and mid-size businesses but is increasingly adopted by large companies (including ELF and Estee Lauder, both owned by the speaker).
• Income Statement Analysis: Graded a B-.
  • Revenue: $2.1 billion to $2.8 billion.
  • Gross Profit: $1.1 billion to $1.4 billion.
  • Merchant Solutions Cost of Revenue: High.
  • Sales and Marketing: Increased significantly.
  • Transaction Loan Losses: A substantial increase from $58 million to $148 million, impacting operating expenses.
  • Operating Expenses: Increased to over $1 billion from $800 million.
  • Operating Income: Increased to $343 million from $283 million.
  • Net Income (excluding equity investments): $367 million.
• Historical Performance: Since its IPO ~10 years ago, Shopify has outperformed most of the "Mag 7" companies, with a 5,800% gain, second only to Nvidia (35,000%). Tesla is up ~2,600%, Amazon ~1,000%, Microsoft ~1,000%, Apple and Meta ~700%.

Honest Company (HNST)

• Income Statement Grade: C-.
• Revenue: Decreased to $92 million from $99 million.
• Gross Profit: $34 million versus $38 million.
• Cost Management:
  • General & Administrative (G&A) expenses significantly reduced from $23 million to $17 million.
  • Marketing expenses increased from $13.1 million to $14.7 million, which the speaker disliked given the revenue decline.
• Operating Income: Increased to nearly $7 million year-over-year despite lower revenue, which is considered impressive.
• Net Income & EPS: Grew year-over-year, but on small numbers.
• Balance Sheet: "Amazing" and "legendary."
  • Cash and cash equivalents: Over $71 million.
  • Cash exceeds total liabilities by $20 million.
  • Market cap: Slightly over $300 million.
• Transformation 2.0: The company is undergoing a significant business model change.
  • Rationale: Exiting product categories and channels that account for 21-22% of revenue to focus on more profitable and growth-oriented areas. This is expected to lead to short-term revenue declines over the next 12 months.
  • Long-Term Outlook: The business is expected to become healthier, with potential for record margins, net income, and EPS. The speaker speculates a focus on cosmetics, beauty products, and the core baby business.
• Potential Exit Strategy: The speaker suggests the transformation could be positioning the company for an acquisition by a larger entity (e.g., Kimberly Clark, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson) or a private equity firm. This would involve presenting a lean, profitable, and debt-free company with significant cash.
• Speaker's Trust: The speaker has "full trust" in CEO Carla's decisions, citing her success in turning the company around from near bankruptcy.

American Express (AXP)

• New Position: The speaker has initiated a position in American Express (AXP) in both the public account and at least one private portfolio.
• Company Overview: A well-known credit card company with a successful business model based on fees and customer perks, appealing to higher-income individuals.
• Financial Projections:
  • Bull Case (10% probability): 10% revenue growth, 15% net income growth, projecting $800-$950 by 2029 (~20%+ CAGR).
  • Base Case (8% probability): 8% average revenue growth (2026-2029), 12% average net income growth (2026-2029), projecting $700-$800 by 2029.
  • Share Buybacks: American Express actively buys back shares, which is expected to accelerate EPS growth beyond the projected net income growth (potentially 15-20% annually).
  • Bear Case (5% revenue growth, 8% net income growth): Still projects a 4-10% CAGR, indicating profitability even in a weaker scenario.
• Investment Rationale: The stock is considered "too attractively priced." The ability to make money even in the bear case, coupled with strong bull and base case projections, makes it a compelling buy.
• Dividend: Pays a quarterly dividend.
• Financial Health: Demonstrates consistent revenue growth, increasing EPS, growing shareholder equity, and decreasing shares outstanding due to buybacks.
• "Stress-Free" Investment: Described as a "huge money maker" and a "stress-free stock" that provides consistent returns without the high excitement of growth stocks.

ELF Beauty (ELF)

• Performance: The stock has experienced significant volatility, crashing after earnings. It was down 20% after hours, trading between $90-$100.
• Income Statement Grade: D-.
  • Net Sales: Up to $343 million from $301 million.
  • Gross Profit: Up to $238 million from $214 million.
  • SG&A: Increased dramatically from $186 million to $231 million.
  • Operating Income: Decreased to $7.7 million from $28 million.
  • Other Expense: Nearly $2 million versus $3.8 million other income in the prior year.
  • Interest Expense: Significantly higher at $9.1 million versus $3.7 million.
  • Net Income: Fell to $3 million from $19 million.
  • EPS: Fell to 5 cents from 33 cents.
  • Reason for D-: The grade is only not lower due to revenue and gross profit growth; otherwise, it would be an F.
• Guidance: For fiscal 2026, guiding for 18-20% revenue growth.
  • Market Reaction: Some investors are disappointed, expecting higher growth (25-35%).
  • Speaker's Interpretation: The speaker believes this conservative guidance is a strategic move. ELF has missed revenue estimates for the last two quarters after beating them for at least 19 consecutive quarters. Management is likely setting a beatable target to regain confidence.
• Volatility and Long-Term Trend: ELF is one of the most volatile stocks, but its long-term trend has been "up and to the right."
  • Historical Swings: The speaker details numerous significant crashes and rallies since the IPO, including a drop to $7, a rise to $15-$20, a crash to $10, a surge to $30, a crash to $20, a historic run from $20 to $200, a crash to $49, a bounce to $150, and the recent crash.
  • Speaker's Experience: The speaker has held ELF since it was $7 and has endured multiple crashes and corrections.
• Long-Term Outlook: If ELF executes well over the next 3-5 years, it could become a $300-$500 stock and a major player in the cosmetic industry, potentially displacing larger brands.
• Message to Private Group: The speaker notes that some investors are already panicking with minor NASDAQ pullbacks, highlighting the need for resilience through severe market downturns (like the 37% NASDAQ drop in 2021-2022).

Investment Philosophy and Personal Journey

• Pain and Gain: The speaker emphasizes that significant gains are impossible without enduring pain and volatility. Crashes and corrections are a "cost of doing business."
• Diversification: Matters significantly, as some stocks will inevitably underperform.
• Humility in Investing: Acknowledges that one cannot bat 100% and will be wrong about companies sometimes, both in the short and long term.
• Personal Growth: The speaker shares their 17-year journey from a one-bedroom apartment to owning multiple homes, including a $3 million+ residence and a $5 million home under construction. This success is attributed to enduring numerous market crashes and corrections.
• Risk Management: While aiming for high-growth stocks (like those that go up 2,000%), the speaker accepts that other investments might go down 50%. The net result is positive growth over time.
• Due Diligence: Stresses the importance of fundamental analysis, examining income statements, balance sheets, cash flows, PE ratios, and running projections.
• Risk vs. Reward: If a stock's bear case is ugly, the bull case must be exceptionally exciting.
• Achieving Dreams: The speaker connects financial success to achieving life goals, such as providing for family, charitable giving, and experiencing life's pleasures. This requires a willingness to go through pain and hard work.
• One Chance at Life: The speaker encourages viewers to seize opportunities and put in the effort to achieve their dreams, as life is finite.

Private Stock Group Information

• Demand: Overwhelming demand, with 2,849 members currently. 100 applications received yesterday, 500 last week.
• Net Worth Requirement: Increasing to $100,000 minimum net worth on January 1st. Those below this threshold are encouraged to join before the deadline.
• Lifetime Membership: Now includes a black card in addition to the steel membership card.
• Potential Closure: The group may close to new members upon reaching 3,000 members, with a potential reopening in 2026.
• Application: A link to apply is provided in the pinned comment.