I Just Bought a NEW STOCK ($60,000 spent)

Key Concepts

• Market Volatility & Disconnect: A significant market downturn occurred, disproportionately impacting major tech stocks while the speaker achieved substantial personal gains.
• Software Sector Rebound: The speaker anticipates a market rotation from hardware to software, specifically favoring Adobe, Salesforce, and ServiceNow as undervalued opportunities.
• Micron’s Cyclicality: Despite current success driven by AI, Micron is viewed as a short-term play due to the inherent cyclicality of the memory industry.
• Long-Term Investment Strategy: The speaker advocates for a long-term, value-based investment approach, capitalizing on market irrationality and focusing on fundamentally strong companies.

Market Overview & Personal Gains (Part 1)

On a particularly volatile day, the speaker experienced significant gains – over $80,000 in his public account, largely from a $17,000 profit on Meta (META). This contrasted sharply with a broader market decline, with the Q's down 1.5% and the S&P 500 down approximately 2%. He observed a disconnect between the overall market and the dramatic drops in individual tech stocks, some falling 20-40% and effectively entering “bear markets.” Notable underperformers included Microsoft (MSFT), Snowflake (SNOW), Salesforce (CRM), Palantir (PLTR), Adobe (ADBE), Intuit (INTU), Service Now (NOW), Oracle (ORCL), and Netflix (NFLX). Micron (MU) was an outlier, up 357% year-over-year, prompting consideration of whether it represented a genuine opportunity or a potential “trap.” The speaker plans to capitalize on the downturn by investing heavily in undervalued stocks like Adobe, Salesforce, and Service Now over the next two months, potentially continuing throughout the year. He referenced past earnings at QuickTrip ($55,000 in 2013) and supplemental stock profits ($40,000) to contextualize his current gains.

Specific Stock Performance & Analysis (Part 1)

Detailed stock performance data revealed: Microsoft down 12% in the past three months and $58/share today; Snowflake down 8% today and 26% in the past three months; Salesforce down 20%+ in the past month and 7% today; Palantir down 20% in the past month and 5% today, breaking the $150 psychological barrier; Adobe down 17.7% in the past month and 3% today; Intuit down 8% today and 26% in the past month; Service Now down 12% today and almost 40% in the past three months; Oracle down 41% in the past three months and 4% today; and Netflix down 2% today and a quarter of its value in the past three months. Despite ServiceNow’s decline, recent partnerships with Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, and Figma were cited as positive developments. The speaker utilizes a combination of fundamental and technical analysis, including P/E ratios, gross margins, net income, EPS, KAGR, and psychological barriers, to identify undervalued stocks. He employs a projections tool on thousandxstocks.com to model potential future performance.

Anticipated Market Rotation & Software Sector (Part 2)

The speaker anticipates a market rotation in the latter half of the year, potentially extending into 2027, shifting investment from hardware (Nvidia, Micron, AMD) to previously “beaten down” software companies – Adobe, Salesforce, and ServiceNow. He believes these software companies are currently undervalued and will experience a resurgence as they continue to post strong financial results, particularly as fears of being displaced by AI subside. He drew a parallel to Google’s recovery last year, where he personally profited “at least six figures, if not multi six figures” by recognizing the opportunity. He argues that Wall Street historically “loves” these software stocks and will return to them once positive momentum is re-established, driven by consistent strong performance. He predicts a “flood of money” back into these stocks, leading to a rotation from high-performing hardware stocks.

Micron’s Short-Term Opportunity & Long-Term Risks (Part 2)

Despite Micron’s current potential for record profits in 2026 and 2027, the speaker cautions against viewing it as a long-term investment. He asserts the memory industry is inherently cyclical, and despite current high demand driven by AI and companies like Nvidia and AMD, a downturn is inevitable. He predicts that as capacity increases and demand moderates, Micron’s revenue and profits will flatline around 2028, leading to a significant stock price decline. He advises exiting Micron positions in 2026 to capitalize on peak profits, stating the prices reached in 2026 may not be seen again for decades. He highlights that the stock often declines before the actual downturn in financials, triggered by announcements of increased capacity and moderating demand from major tech companies like Meta and Microsoft. He acknowledges the possibility of short-term price increases but maintains a negative long-term outlook.

Conclusion

The speaker’s analysis highlights a belief in market irrationality and the potential for significant gains by identifying undervalued companies. He advocates for a long-term investment strategy focused on fundamentally strong software businesses like Adobe, Salesforce, and ServiceNow, anticipating a market rotation away from the currently high-performing hardware sector. While acknowledging Micron’s short-term potential, he warns against a long-term investment due to the cyclical nature of the memory industry. His approach emphasizes patience, value investing, and capitalizing on market mispricing. He concluded by promoting his private stock group and membership options.