‘I DON’T SEE THE POINT’: Chang questions Trump’s meeting with Xi

Key Concepts

• Fentanyl Trade: The illicit production and trafficking of fentanyl, a potent synthetic opioid, with a focus on China's role and the US government's efforts to curb it.
• US-China Relations: The complex diplomatic and economic relationship between the United States and China, particularly concerning trade, security, and leadership interactions.
• Chinese Military Control: The extent of Xi Jinping's authority over the People's Liberation Army (PLA) and internal power struggles within the military leadership.
• Political Legitimacy: The basis upon which leaders, especially Xi Jinping, derive and maintain their authority, and how external relations (like with the US) impact this.
• Economic Sanctions/Tariffs: The use of trade measures, such as tariffs, as a tool to influence the behavior of other nations.

Fentanyl as a Top US-China Discussion Point

Stuart highlights that Donald Trump has identified fentanyl as the "top issue" he wishes to discuss with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump states that if Chinese companies make significant profits (e.g., "one hundred million dollars or so") from fentanyl production, they face "a big penalty" and are discouraged from continuing. He expresses anticipation for the outcome of discussions scheduled for the end of the following week.

China's Role in the Fentanyl Trade and Potential Solutions

Gordon Chang, a China expert, asserts that China "could simply stop the flow immediately" of fentanyl, suggesting it's an easily solvable issue from a technical standpoint. He argues that the "Chinese central government and Communist Party are behind the fentanyl gangs," and that "diplomats give coverage of them." Chang further elaborates that many fentanyl producers are state-owned, and that TikTok, owned by a Chinese company, could prevent fentanyl use. He points out that Xi Jinping had previously promised to end the fentanyl trade in discussions with President Obama in 2016, with Donald Trump in 2018, and with Joe Biden in 2023. Despite these repeated promises, Chang expresses skepticism about the efficacy of further discussions on fentanyl with Xi Jinping, advocating instead for the "imposition of real costs beyond the 20% tariff the Trump is imposed."

Xi Jinping's Control Over the Military

Stuart raises the issue of China purging nine top generals, questioning Gordon Chang's previous assertion that Xi Jinping does not have full control of his military. Chang reaffirms his stance, stating, "I think that's certainly true." He cites the appointment of a new Vice Chairman of the Central Military Commission to replace Dong, a Xi Jinping loyalist who was sacked. Chang notes that the new general is considered a "Xi Jinping adversary." He suggests that "there's a lot of evidence but it suggests the military right now should not be considered an asset for Xi Jinping."

Internal Power Struggles and Future Instability

When asked if Xi Jinping's control was ever in doubt, Chang acknowledges that Xi is "successfully gaining altitude" but faces "intense infighting" with older party leaders. He predicts that "whether Xi Jinping stays or goes there will be purges afterwards. They will be consequential." Chang believes that "the Communist Party will be in disarray for quite some time."

Xi Jinping's Strategic Positioning with Trump

Stuart inquires whether Xi Jinping needs to deal with Trump to secure his position. Chang suggests that while one might think so, Xi Jinping has based his legitimacy over the past "2 or 3 years on China and the United States." Chang argues that Xi is "undercutting his own legitimacy" by not making concessions and by avoiding accountability. He interprets Xi's decision not to confirm the meeting with Donald Trump as an attempt "to put Trump in an inferior position," implying a stance of "we don't need to talk to Americans" and maintaining an "inferior bargaining position."

Conclusion

The discussion centers on the critical issue of fentanyl trafficking from China and the perceived lack of genuine commitment from the Chinese government to address it, despite repeated promises. The conversation then shifts to internal power dynamics within China, specifically Xi Jinping's apparent struggles to maintain absolute control over the military, evidenced by recent purges and appointments of adversaries. Finally, it explores Xi Jinping's strategic approach to international relations, particularly with the United States, suggesting a deliberate effort to project strength and avoid concessions, even at the risk of undermining his own legitimacy. The overarching sentiment is that diplomatic discussions alone are insufficient, and tangible costs or actions are needed to influence China's behavior.