Hungary will be "a tough partner, but a partner" on Ukraine, expert says • FRANCE 24 English

Key Concepts

• Illiberal Regime: A political system that maintains the appearance of democracy but restricts civil liberties and consolidates power, a model associated with Viktor Orbán.
• Fidesz: The Hungarian political party led by Viktor Orbán; Peter Magyar is a former member of this party.
• Supermajority: A legislative advantage that allows a government to amend fundamental laws and the constitution, providing a distinct advantage in dismantling previous institutional structures.
• Rule of Law: The principle that all people and institutions are subject to and accountable to law that is fairly applied and enforced.
• Media Capture: A situation where media outlets (public and private) are controlled or heavily influenced by government interests or state-aligned business figures.

1. Geopolitical and Political Shift

Lukasz Mesheck, Director of the Greater Europe project at the Jacques Delors Centre, suggests that Hungary is on the verge of a "true change" following the election.

• Geopolitical Orientation: The shift marks a move away from the Orbán-era alignment with Russia and China, signaling a return to the European Union mainstream.
• Political Style: While Peter Magyar is a conservative and a former Fidesz insider, his style is expected to be more aligned with the European People’s Party (EPP) rather than the confrontational, "illiberal" approach of his predecessor.
• Cultural Battles: While Magyar will likely maintain conservative stances on social issues (e.g., LGBT rights), he is expected to abandon the "overexposure" of these topics that Orbán used as tools for political struggle.

2. Impact on Ukraine and EU Relations

The transition in leadership is expected to have immediate, tangible effects on EU-Ukraine relations:

• Financial Aid: Hungary is expected to stop blocking the €90 billion EU loan to Ukraine. Mesheck predicts Hungary will adopt a position similar to Slovakia or the Czech Republic—opting out of direct financial participation while no longer preventing the EU from providing the aid.
• EU Accession: The new government is expected to be a "tough partner" but not an ideological blocker. Opposition to Ukraine’s accession will likely be based on specific, pragmatic concerns (such as the status of the Hungarian minority in Ukraine) rather than a desire to appease Vladimir Putin.

3. The "Orbán Laboratory" and Global Symbolism

Viktor Orbán served as a mentor and symbol for Christian-nationalist conservative movements globally.

• Symbolic Blow: Hungary’s move away from the Orbán model represents a significant setback for the international "illiberal" movement.
• International Ties: Orbán’s close alignment with figures like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin made Hungary a "laboratory" for this ideology. The election results send a clear message to Washington and Moscow that Europe’s trajectory is diverging from their influence.

4. Media Reform and the Rule of Law

A major point of contention is Peter Magyar’s plan to suspend state broadcasting to address bias.

• The Problem: Under Orbán, the Hungarian media landscape—including significant portions of private media—was heavily influenced by the government or state-aligned businessmen.
• The Dilemma: Mesheck highlights the paradox of restoring the rule of law: how to dismantle a system built on "legal" but undemocratic methods without resorting to the same questionable tactics.
• The Advantage of Supermajority: Unlike Donald Tusk in Poland, who has struggled to reform the judiciary due to institutional gridlock, Magyar possesses a "supermajority." This allows him to legally amend the constitution and fundamental laws, providing a cleaner, more legitimate path to deconstructing the previous regime’s infrastructure.

Synthesis and Conclusion

The transition in Hungary represents a pivotal moment for European politics. By moving from an "extreme case" of illiberalism back toward the EU mainstream, the new government is expected to normalize relations with Brussels and remove obstacles to critical support for Ukraine. While the new administration remains conservative, its departure from the "Orbánian" ideological crusade against the EU and its use of a supermajority to reform state institutions suggest a structural shift rather than a mere change in personnel. The primary challenge remains the delicate task of restoring democratic norms and media plurality without compromising the very rule of law the new government seeks to uphold.