How Xi Unleashed China’s Biggest Military Purge Since Mao

Key Concepts:

• People's Liberation Army (PLA): China's military, controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
• Central Military Commission (CMC): The apex military body in China, controlled by the Central Committee and headed by Xi Jinping.
• Modernization of the PLA: Xi Jinping's goal to modernize the military by 2035 and make it world-class by 2050.
• Corruption Crackdown: Xi Jinping's campaign to remove corrupt officials across all sectors of the government, including the military.
• Succession: The issue of who will succeed Xi Jinping as the leader of China.
• Taiwan: Beijing's ambition to bring Taiwan into the Chinese state, peacefully if possible, but with the potential use of military force.

1. Structure and Leadership of the PLA

• The PLA is unique because it's controlled by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), not the state.
• It consists of four main forces: the army, air force, navy, and rocket force (missiles).
• All forces are under the command of the Central Military Commission (CMC), which is controlled by the Central Committee.
• Xi Jinping heads both the CMC and the Central Committee, centralizing control.
• The CMC is both a commanding and political body, ensuring the military adheres to the correct political thought.

2. Scale and Modernization of the PLA

• China has the largest number of active military personnel in the world.
• Xi Jinping has more than doubled military spending to $296 billion since taking power in 2012.
• His goal is to modernize the military by 2035 and make it world-class by 2050.
• Modernization includes investing in new technologies and restructuring the PLA to better suit China's global ambitions.
• The PLA was originally a land-based army for the Chinese civil war, but now China needs an air force, navy, and nuclear weapons.

3. Xi Jinping's Corruption Crackdown

• Since Xi came into power, hundreds of senior officials across all sectors of the government have been taken down, including in the military.
• US intelligence reveals widespread corruption is behind President Xi's sweeping purge of China's military.
• Corruption includes taking bribes to help others secure promotions.
• Xi has also seen how corruption in Russia's military affected its performance in Ukraine.
• Corruption probes in China have a history of being political.

4. Purges and Political Rivals

• During Xi's first term, three high-ranking security and military officials were ousted.
• These officials were appointed by Xi's predecessors and associated with his political rivals.
• During Xi's third term, the purges have escalated.
• In the summer of 2023, China announced an investigation into corruption involving equipment purchases going back to 2017.
• Soon after, senior people from China's Rocket Force were ousted.
• 15 generals who had been promoted under Xi himself have either gone missing or been investigated.
• This is a major shift, as none of Xi's predecessors ever purged generals they had personally appointed.

5. High-Profile Outings

• Among the most high profile of those purged are Li Shangfu, Miao Hua and He Weidong.
• All three men were associates of Xi and sat on the Central Military Commission.
• Li Shangfu is now the shortest reigning Defense Minister ever in China.
• Miao Hua is being suspended.
• Little is known about the fate of He Weidong.

6. Signs of Trouble

• China's political and military systems are opaque, making it difficult to discern what is happening.
• Absences of senior party officials are often the first indication that something is wrong.
• For example, He Weidong's absence from a routine tree-planting ceremony in April raised suspicions.
• He Weidong was one of the first people in over a decade to not have to work his way up the Central Military Commission.

7. Succession and Power

• Xi Jinping's power comes from his position as chairman of the Central Military Commission, not as president of the country.
• The chairman and vice chairman of the CMC indicate who is in power and who is coming up next.
• Xi has purged so many people from the CMC that there are many vacancies.
• The people he picks to fill these vacancies will be closely scrutinized as potential successors.

8. Loyalty and National Rejuvenation

• One of the reasons behind the purges is to create a degree of loyalty to Xi as the paramount leader of China.
• This plays into his larger ambitions for China and is part of the national rejuvenation he has talked about since he's been in power.
• This includes the unification with Taiwan.

9. Impact on Military Readiness

• A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be incredibly difficult.
• Removing corrupt leadership could improve capability to carry out missions.
• However, removing leaders who are popular could hurt morale.
• It's unclear whether Xi Jinping's purges are a sign of strength or weakness.
• Some say it shows how powerful he is, while others say it's a sign of distrust in his own appointees.
• This creates a degree of paranoia, ensuring that Xi Jinping holds the power in his own hands.

10. Global Consequences

• A top US admiral says signs suggest China is sticking to its ambitions to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
• The competition between the United States and China is the most dangerous and the most impactful when it comes to the militaries of these two countries.
• Anything that changes the dynamics there is inevitably going to change the way the world works politically, economically, technologically, in big and small ways.

Synthesis/Conclusion:

The video details the unprecedented purges within China's military under Xi Jinping's leadership, highlighting the scale of the corruption crackdown and its potential impact on military readiness and succession planning. While the stated goal is to modernize the PLA and ensure loyalty, the purges raise questions about stability and the true motivations behind these actions, particularly in the context of China's ambitions regarding Taiwan and its relationship with the United States. The opaque nature of China's political system makes it difficult to fully understand the implications, but the changes within the CMC are significant and warrant close observation.