How We Traded $100M in Silver in 16 HOURS!

Physical Silver Market Update - December 29th, 2025

Key Concepts:

• Physical Silver Market: The actual buying and selling of physical silver bullion (bars, coins, rounds) as opposed to paper silver (futures contracts).
• Spot Price: The current market price for immediate delivery of a commodity (in this case, silver). Multiple spot prices can exist due to market fragmentation.
• Paper Silver: Silver traded as futures contracts on exchanges like COMEX. Its price can diverge from the physical market.
• Live Metal: Physically available silver ready for immediate shipment.
• Premiums: The amount added to the spot price to cover costs like fabrication, distribution, and profit margins.
• COMEX: The Commodity Exchange, a major futures and options market for precious metals.
• Sovereign Mints: Government-operated mints (e.g., US Mint, Royal Canadian Mint) producing bullion coins.
• Private Mints: Independently operated mints producing bullion products.

I. Unprecedented Demand & Market Calamity (December 27th - 29th, 2025)

The discussion centers around an extraordinary surge in silver demand beginning on December 27th, 2025, and continuing through December 29th, 2025, at 2:15 PM EST. SD Bullion, a precious metals dealer, experienced a demand exceeding expectations, culminating in over $120 million in silver traded/procured in the last 16 hours. This demand spike began with elevated sales on Wednesday, Christmas Day (7-8x normal volume), Friday, and continued into the weekend. The initial expectation was to hedge against weekend sales, but demand quickly outstripped available inventory. By Saturday morning, most of the pre-positioned silver had already been sold.

II. Sunday Market Open – A “Crime Scene”

The Sunday market open was described as chaotic. Instead of a smooth continuation of trading, the market exhibited extreme volatility and fragmentation. Key observations:

• Limited Liquidity: Major trading desks, including those typically handling large volumes on the COMEX, were unwilling to quote prices or limited trades to 5-10,000 ounces, refusing even 20,000-ounce orders – a volume they routinely handle.
• Spot Price Divergence: Multiple spot prices were being quoted simultaneously, with significant deltas (over $1.50 difference within minutes) between different trading desks. This highlights the disconnect between paper and physical silver markets.
• Lack of Cohesion: The market lacked coordination, with no unified price discovery. Trading was described as a “wild west.”
• Paper vs. Physical: The discussion emphasized the difference between the paper (futures) price of silver and the actual price in the physical market, where prices are determined by individual transactions based on supply and demand.

III. Sourcing Challenges & Industry-Wide Impact

Cole Keller, COO and Head Trader at SD Bullion, detailed the difficulties in sourcing silver during this period.

• Complete Depletion of Inventory: One major industry player, capable of handling 7,000-10,000 ounce trades, was completely out of “live” (immediately shippable) silver with an order of less than 10,000 ounces.
• Industry-Wide Impact: The surge in demand depleted available inventory across the industry, not just at SD Bullion.
• Raw Material Availability: While raw silver material itself isn’t scarce, the bottleneck lies in refining, production, and minting capacity.
• Mint Backlogs: Sovereign mints (US Mint, Canadian Mint) are experiencing significant backlogs, with new products not expected for 2-3 weeks. Private mints are also facing delays and increased labor costs due to overtime.
• China’s Influence: The discussion briefly touched on the potential long-term impact of China’s silver acquisition and direct sourcing from mines on the global market.

IV. SD Bullion’s Position & Customer Expectations

SD Bullion is positioned relatively well due to its ownership of the metal it sells, avoiding the need for extensive hedging. However, even SD Bullion is experiencing increased order volume and processing times.

• High Order Volume: SD Bullion is processing a significantly higher volume of orders than usual, leading to potential delays.
• Order Fulfillment Guarantee: SD Bullion maintains a commitment to fulfilling all orders that have been locked in and paid for, despite the challenges.
• Premium Increases: Customers should expect premiums to increase as private mints pass on higher production costs.
• Buying Opportunity: Despite the volatility, the situation presents a potential buying opportunity for those who can secure silver.

V. Data & Statistics

• $120 Million+: Value of silver traded/procured by SD Bullion in the last 16 hours.
• 7-8x: Increase in sales volume on Christmas Day compared to a normal day.
• 2-3 Weeks: Estimated delay for new products from sovereign mints.
• <10,000 ounces: Size of the order that depleted a major industry player’s available physical silver.

VI. Notable Quotes

• “It’s just a matter of how many orders can we get out the door. It’s not that we don’t have the silver there. It just takes time to get it out when you have this many orders coming in.” – Cole Keller
• “It’s like a storm starting and you think, ‘Okay, we’re good.’ and you know it’s just a snowstorm with freezing rain for a couple days and you’re like okay yikes this is this is getting bad and there’s no real end in sight.” – Cole Keller, describing the escalating situation.
• “The beauty about buying physical is you can lock your price in 247. You will get your order.” – Speaker, emphasizing the benefits of physical silver ownership.

VII. Logical Connections & Synthesis

The video establishes a clear narrative: an unexpected surge in silver demand created a chaotic market environment, exposing vulnerabilities in the supply chain and highlighting the disconnect between paper and physical silver prices. The discussion progresses from describing the initial demand spike to detailing the challenges of sourcing silver, the impact on mints, and the implications for customers. The conclusion emphasizes that while delays are expected, SD Bullion is committed to fulfilling orders and that the situation presents a potential buying opportunity. The mention of China’s silver acquisition suggests a potential long-term shift in market dynamics.

Conclusion:

The physical silver market is currently experiencing unprecedented demand and significant disruption. Sourcing silver is becoming increasingly difficult, leading to delays and higher premiums. While the situation is challenging, SD Bullion remains committed to fulfilling orders and believes the current volatility presents a potential buying opportunity for those who can secure physical silver. The long-term impact of China’s silver acquisition remains to be seen.