How Venezuela is reacting to latest escalatory US rhetoric | DW News

Key Concepts

• Cartel de los Soles: Alleged criminal organization run by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and high-ranking officials.
• Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) designation: A US government designation that imposes sanctions and restrictions on groups deemed terrorist.
• USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group: A powerful US naval force deployed to the Caribbean.
• Counter-narcotics operations: Military or law enforcement actions aimed at disrupting drug trafficking.
• Failed state: A country where the government is unable to perform basic functions and maintain order.
• Reinstitutionalization: The process of rebuilding and restoring independent government institutions.
• Democratic opposition: Political groups in Venezuela advocating for democracy and free elections.
• Sanctions and concessions: Diplomatic tools involving penalties and offers of compromise.

US Ramps Up Pressure on Venezuela Amidst Military Buildup

The Trump administration is intensifying its pressure on Venezuela, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio announcing plans to designate the "Cartel de los Soles," which he claims is led by Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and other high-ranking officials, as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO). Rubio stated that these individuals have corrupted Venezuela's military, intelligence, legislature, and judiciary, and do not represent the legitimate government.

This announcement coincides with the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group in the Caribbean, described as part of the largest buildup of US firepower in the region in generations. The US military has also released footage of recent strikes on alleged drug trafficking boats, resulting in at least 83 deaths in 21 attacks in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific since early September.

Significance of FTO Designation and Military Presence

James B. Story, former US Ambassador to Venezuela (2018-2023), explained that while the FTO designation might not grant the President significantly more authority for actions against narcotics organizations, it broadens the definition of the target and serves as a political message. He believes the President already possesses the resources for unilateral action, and this designation "ramps up that pressure to some extent."

Regarding the deployment of the USS Gerald R. Ford, Ambassador Story clarified that this is not a typical counter-narcotics operation. He contrasted it with standard counter-narcotics efforts, which would involve vessels like white holes and coast guard cutters, and often operate out of bases like Curaçao. The current deployment represents an "overwhelming amount of force" for the mission and even for the broader "Venezuela problem set." He asserted that Venezuela lacks the capability to engage militarily with the US, questioning the next steps the President might take.

Potential for Talks and the Threat of Intervention

President Trump has suggested the possibility of talks with Maduro, stating, "We may be discussing, we may be having some discussions with Maduro and we'll see how that turns out." Ambassador Story, drawing on his experience engaging with the Maduro regime, proposed that any discussions should focus on Maduro's "departure, his voluntary departure or also communicating the threat that if you don't leave on your own reconnaissance we will make you."

Ambassador Story believes the threat of intervention exists, referencing the Trump administration's past statement that "all options are on the table." He interprets the current military presence as an implication that if Maduro does not leave voluntarily, the US "could help him see the door ourselves."

Challenges of a Post-Maduro Venezuela

The discussion then shifted to the potential aftermath of Maduro's departure. Ambassador Story raised concerns about the preparedness of Venezuela for a transition, noting that the democratic opposition, led by María Corina Machado and Edmundo González, won the last election but Maduro refused to cede power.

He emphasized the need for the opposition to present a clear strategy for governance, including plans for the immediate 24-hour, 48-hour, one-week, three-month, and six-month periods following Maduro's exit. This is crucial because Venezuela's institutions have been "eaten away and destroyed" and are no longer independent.

Ambassador Story highlighted Venezuela's status as a "failed state" that does not control its own territory. He pointed to the presence of dissident elements of FARC and ELN (Marxist drug trafficking organizations and FTOs from Colombia), as well as cartels like the Taragua, and Hezbollah operating within the country. He stressed the necessity of rebuilding military and judicial institutions to address criminality and illegality. He urged Machado and others to outline a vision for a future Venezuela that includes "all kinds of political thought."

Maduro's Political Strategy and Mistrust of US Policy

Despite his weakened position, Maduro shows no signs of imminent departure, as evidenced by recent public appearances. Ambassador Story compared the situation to the fall of the Berlin Wall, noting that significant events can happen quickly. He suggested that Maduro's current strategy involves generating sympathy and internal support, which he believes is lacking, citing the discrepancy between Maduro's claimed civilian militia membership and his vote count in the last election. Maduro is also seeking regional support from leaders like Lula in Brazil and Petro in Colombia.

Ambassador Story dismissed Maduro's narrative of "poor Venezuelans against the empire," stating that Maduro has been "waging war against his own people for over a decade." He believes Maduro's overtures are an attempt to project an image of comfort, which he doubts is genuine.

The conversation also touched upon the US's fluctuating approach to Venezuela, oscillating between "carrot and stick." Some argue that this mixed strategy has fostered mistrust of America among Venezuelans. Ambassador Story countered this by stating that the premise is flawed, as the Venezuelan opposition has engaged in numerous negotiations with the regime, involving various international mediators. He believes the opposition should not have to compromise its fundamental beliefs in liberty to reach an agreement with a dictatorial regime. He characterized Maduro's negotiation attempts as a "monologue" aimed at maintaining power, likening it to "kicking the can down the road" or "Lucy and the football," with the opposition perpetually being "Charlie Brown."

Ambassador Story concluded by reiterating the importance of the opposition presenting a clear plan for Venezuela's future.