How US-Iran nuclear talks are likely to play outーNHK WORLD-JAPAN NEWS

Key Concepts

• Nuclear Talks: Negotiations between Iran and the US regarding Iran’s nuclear program.
• USS Abraham Lincoln: US aircraft carrier deployed to the Middle East as a show of force.
• IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps): A branch of Iran’s armed forces, considered a key power within the country.
• Ballistic Missiles: A major point of contention, with the US seeking to limit Iran’s capabilities.
• Ayatollah Ali Khamenei: Iran’s Supreme Leader, representing the highest political and religious authority.
• Steve Whitkov: US special envoy for Iran negotiations.
• Abbas Arochi: Iran’s Foreign Minister.
• June 2025 Strike: Referenced Israeli and US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
• Regional War: Potential outcome of escalating conflict, as warned by Ayatollah Khamenei.

Iran-US Negotiations: A Tense Path Forward

The transcript details the impending nuclear talks between Iran and the US, scheduled to take place in Oman on Friday, amidst escalating tensions and mutual threats. The situation is characterized by a delicate balance between diplomatic maneuvering and military posturing, with the prospect of a breakthrough remaining uncertain.

Escalating Tensions & Military Posturing

US President Donald Trump has increased pressure on Iran, warning of a devastating response should negotiations fail. This pressure manifested in the deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group to the Middle East last month. Further escalating the situation, a US F-35 fighter jet shot down an Iranian drone after it approached the carrier, described as an act of self-defense. In response, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned that any US military action would result in a regional war, stating, “The Americans should know that if they start a war this time, it will be a regional war.” Trump, in turn, emphasized US military strength, stating, “We have the biggest, most powerful ships in the world over there. Very close. Couple of days. And uh hopefully we'll make a deal. If we don't make a deal, then we'll find out whether or not he was right.”

Disagreements on Negotiation Scope

The upcoming talks, between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Arochi and US special envoy Steve Whitkov, are already facing obstacles regarding the agenda. Iran views the negotiations as a continuation of previous talks, focusing solely on its nuclear program. However, the US, influenced by Israel (through Whitkov’s prior consultations), is pushing to include the elimination of Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities as a prerequisite for any agreement. Professor Tanaka Kichiro explains, “the Israelis want this idea of eliminating the ballistic missile capabilities of Iran first. And I think that's going to be the very tough issue that the talks are going to face if if it happens.” This divergence stems from the Iranian missile launches towards Israel following the June 2025 strikes, which, despite claimed interceptions, reportedly caused significant alarm.

Iran’s Negotiating Strategy & Regional Considerations

Facing a significant military disadvantage, Iran’s strategy centers on deterring future attacks through continued negotiation, specifically limiting the agenda to nuclear activities. They also seek intervention from regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Oman to influence the US against military intervention. Professor Kichiro notes, “they would also want to see the regional powers like uh Saudi Arabia, Turkey…as well as uh countries like Oman to intervene in the favor of the Iranians uh so that the uh Americans would withho would uh think twice about launching their military strikes against Iran.” This reflects a fear that a US strike could destabilize the entire region.

Potential for Regime Collapse & Regional Instability

The transcript highlights the vulnerability of the Iranian regime to military intervention. Professor Kichiro suggests a “high probability” that the Islamic Republic could fall if attacked, potentially leading to a chaotic situation within Iran and across the Persian Gulf. He cautions that even if Ayatollah Khamenei is eliminated, the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps) could seize power through a military coup, creating further uncertainty. “My uh gut feeling is that there are high possibility high probability that the regime the Islamic Republic is going to fall.”

Wider Global Implications

The potential for conflict extends beyond the immediate region. The Persian Gulf is a critical source of energy for both global and East Asian markets. Escalation could therefore have significant economic consequences. Professor Kichiro emphasizes, “we have to be reminded that uh the Persian Gulf region is an extremely important source of energy for us and also for East Asian countries. And we cannot forget that the quagmire that is might happen is going to really really affect us.” He describes the potential for the region to be “engulfed in the quagmire.”

Conclusion

The situation between Iran and the US remains highly volatile. While negotiations are set to begin, fundamental disagreements over the scope of discussion and the underlying threat of military action cast a long shadow. The potential consequences of escalation – regime collapse, regional instability, and global economic disruption – underscore the urgency of finding a diplomatic solution, even as both sides appear entrenched in their positions. The outcome of the Oman talks will be crucial in determining whether the region descends into conflict or finds a path towards de-escalation.