How unified is the EU when it comes to supporting Kyiv? | DW News

Ukraine Conflict: Fourth Anniversary Analysis

Key Concepts:

• Full-Scale Invasion: Russia’s comprehensive military operation launched against Ukraine in February 2022.
• Attrition Warfare: A prolonged conflict characterized by continuous losses of personnel and materiel, aiming to exhaust the enemy.
• Leverage: The ability to influence a situation or person, often through control of resources or power.
• Neopatrimonialism: A system of governance characterized by the blending of public and private interests, often reliant on personal relationships and patronage.
• EU Unity: The degree of consensus and coordinated action among member states of the European Union.
• Frozen Russian Assets: Funds belonging to the Russian state or individuals sanctioned due to the conflict, held in foreign financial institutions.

I. The Anniversary and Initial Russian Objectives

The fourth anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was marked by a minute of silence for the thousands of soldiers and civilians killed. Initial Kremlin expectations of a swift capture of Kyiv within three days proved overly optimistic, demonstrating a miscalculation of both Ukrainian resolve and Russia’s own capabilities. Despite occupying 4,831 kilometers of Ukrainian territory in 2025 – a 33% increase from 2024 – this still represents less than 1% of Ukraine’s total sovereign territory. At the current rate of advance, Russia would require another two years to seize the remaining Ukrainian-held areas of the Donetsk region.

II. Shifting Focus: Political Maneuvering and US Role

The most significant developments in 2025 occurred not on the front lines, but in the political arena, specifically within the US. Hopes that Donald Trump would provide stronger support for Ukraine, building on his prior provision of lethal weapons during his first term, were dashed. Trump’s meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was described as “disastrous,” resulting in Zelenskyy being publicly rebuffed. Trump stated Ukraine lacked “strong cards” and would need to accept any deal, regardless of its implications for Ukrainian security. This contrasted sharply with his deferential treatment of Vladimir Putin, including a “red carpet” welcome in Alaska, where no concessions were secured from the Russian leader despite prior claims of seeking a ceasefire agreement.

III. European Response and US Aid Reduction

Trump’s actions prompted a stronger response from Europe, leading to increased weapons and financial aid to Ukraine, and a rallying around Zelenskyy. However, US support for Ukraine has decreased by 99% since Trump’s return to the White House, limiting the leverage the US president now has over Ukraine. The qualitative impact of US support remains significant, particularly in areas like space-based intelligence and the supply of critical military systems through NATO allies.

IV. Escalation of Long-Range Strikes and Russian Tactics

2025 witnessed a significant increase in the frequency of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes targeting Russian oil and gas infrastructure. These drones are capable of flying thousands of kilometers and carrying substantial payloads. Simultaneously, Russia has intensified pressure on Ukrainian air defenses and resumed attacks on civilian infrastructure, causing widespread blackouts lasting days or weeks, disrupting public transport, and leaving many without heating.

V. Prospects for Negotiation and War of Attrition

Ukrainians are largely skeptical of potential peace talks facilitated by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, believing Putin is only interested in complete Ukrainian capitulation and is engaging in talks solely to appease Trump. A prevailing sentiment, shared by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and British Mounts, is that the war will only end when one side is unable to continue fighting. Ukrainians are hoping that Europe, with an economy ten times larger than Russia’s, will fully utilize its economic power to ensure Russia is the one to buckle first, fearing that a Russian victory would embolden further aggression in Eastern and Central Europe.

VI. EU Challenges to Unity and Support for Ukraine

Fabris Portier, CEO of Rasmussen Global, highlighted a paradox in EU support for Ukraine: while political upsets have occurred regarding unity on issues like membership paths and financial aid, Europe now provides the majority of military and financial support to Ukraine. He emphasized that Europe has demonstrated a “real will” to support Ukraine, recognizing its importance to European security. However, recent failures to agree on new sanctions against Russia and a fresh loan for Ukraine, due to opposition from Hungary and Slovakia, demonstrate ongoing challenges to EU unity. Belgium also blocked plans to utilize frozen Russian assets for Ukraine’s benefit.

VII. Germany’s Role and Public Opinion

Germany has become Ukraine’s largest bilateral supporter following the reduction in US aid, providing 25 billion euros annually. Public support for military aid remains strong at 67%, although concerns about the war’s duration (75% believe no peace will occur this year) and the rise of the far-right AFD party, which opposes aid, are present. The German government remains skeptical of meaningful peace negotiations, believing Putin must acknowledge the war’s failure for progress to occur.

VIII. Expert Analysis: Long-Term Conflict and European Agency

Lois Simon, a research fellow at the Austrian Institute for International Affairs, argues that Russia is using the war to preserve its regime, conceal economic problems, and maintain control over its population. While Ukraine’s army is not on the verge of collapse, neither side is currently forced to submit. She stresses the need for Europe to demonstrate its commitment through increased financial and military burden-sharing, accelerating Ukraine’s EU integration, and reducing reliance on US security. Simon also criticizes the EU for being “outmaneuvered” by both the Kremlin and the White House.

IX. Key Data and Statistics:

• Territory Occupied: 4,831 km² (2025), a 33% increase from 2024, but less than 1% of Ukraine’s total territory.
• US Aid Reduction: 99% decrease in US support for Ukraine since Trump’s return to office.
• German Aid: 25 billion euros annually in bilateral aid.
• Ukrainian Refugees in Germany: 1.2 million, costing 25 billion euros over four years.
• German Public Support for Aid: 67%.
• Germans Expecting No Peace This Year: 75%.

Conclusion:

The fourth anniversary of the Ukraine conflict reveals a shifting landscape. While Ukraine continues to resist, the war is evolving into a protracted struggle of attrition. The reduction in US support has placed greater responsibility on Europe, which is grappling with internal divisions while attempting to bolster Ukraine’s defense. The prospects for a negotiated settlement remain dim, with both sides seemingly unwilling to compromise. The long-term outcome hinges on Europe’s ability to maintain unity, increase its financial and military commitment, and ultimately, exhaust Russia’s capacity to continue the war.