How to Trade Markets with AI | Kris Bullock and Bijan Maleki #artificialintelligence

Key Concepts

• AI Boom: The current rapid growth and adoption of Artificial Intelligence technologies.
• Productivity Wave: A sustained period of increased economic output and efficiency driven by technological advancements.
• Nvidia Earnings Call: A critical financial announcement from Nvidia, a leading AI chip manufacturer, seen as a bellwether for the AI sector.
• Poly Market: A prediction market platform used to gauge probabilities of future events.
• Hyperscaler Spending Discipline: A potential slowdown or more cautious approach by large cloud providers (hyperscalers) in their capital expenditure on AI infrastructure.
• Capex Spending: Capital expenditure, referring to funds used by a company to acquire, upgrade, and maintain physical assets such as property, industrial buildings, or equipment.
• IT Infrastructure: The composite hardware, software, network resources, and services required for the existence, operation, and management of an enterprise IT environment.
• Semiconductors: Electronic components that are the fundamental building blocks of modern electronics, crucial for AI hardware.
• Mag 7: Refers to the "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks (Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla, Meta).
• LLM (Large Language Model): A type of artificial intelligence algorithm that uses deep learning techniques and a massive dataset to understand, summarize, generate, and predict new content.
• Claude: An LLM developed by Anthropic, often highlighted for its coding and data-handling capabilities.
• ChatGPT: An LLM developed by OpenAI, known for its creative content generation and trend analysis.
• Gemini: An LLM developed by Google.
• Perplexity: An AI-powered answer engine that provides direct answers with sources.
• Coin Market Cap API: An Application Programming Interface that allows developers to access cryptocurrency data from Coin Market Cap.
• TradingView: A social trading and networking platform for traders and investors, offering charting tools and market analysis.
• Pine Editor: The integrated development environment (IDE) within TradingView used to write and edit Pine Script, a programming language for creating custom indicators and strategies.
• Crypto Breadth Indicator: A custom tool designed to measure the overall participation and direction of the cryptocurrency market (e.g., number of advancing vs. declining assets).
• Correlation Indicator: A custom tool to measure the statistical relationship between the price movements of two different assets or markets.
• Prompting Exercises: The art and science of crafting effective inputs (prompts) for AI models to elicit desired outputs.
• Trade Idea Competition: A contest for Real Vision members to submit and potentially win prizes for their trading ideas.

Introduction: The AI Revolution

The show "Trading the Markets" is rebranding its Wednesday edition to focus exclusively on Artificial Intelligence (AI), recognizing it as the "new tech taking over our industry and our future." This shift aligns with Real Vision's "AI Tech Week: Trading the Future" content, which delves into topics like trading the future, infrastructure money, funding sources, second-order winners, and overlooked aspects of AI. The overarching theme presented is that the current AI boom is not a bubble like the 1999 dot-com era, but rather "the beginning" of a significant and long-lasting productivity wave. This perspective is supported by discussions between Raoul Pal and Andreas Steno, who noted that companies are funding AI with "real cash and not debt," indicating a more sustainable growth trajectory, especially in a "sweet spot" of solid growth and cooling inflation.

Market Outlook: Nvidia and Sector Performance

The immediate market focus is on Nvidia's earnings call at the end of the day, which is considered crucial for dictating the direction of the AI-driven market train. The expectation is not just for positive earnings but for a significantly strong beat, coupled with robust forward guidance.

• Nvidia Earnings Expectations:

  • Poly Market Projection: Currently shows a 93% chance of Nvidia beating quarterly earnings, though this figure has fluctuated between 93% and 98% throughout the morning.
  • Forward Guidance: A key indicator will be Nvidia's forward guidance, with an ideal target of $75 billion or more for the next quarter.
  • Key Comments to Avoid: The speaker, Chris, explicitly states a desire to avoid "corporate talk" or "buzzwords" like "AI demand normalization," "hyperscaler spending discipline," or "China export constraints." Instead, he wants to hear unequivocally positive statements indicating full-on growth with no slowdown.
  • Impact of Hesitation: Any hint of hesitation or slowdown from Nvidia is expected to have an "outsized impact" on the markets, particularly affecting the hardware and semiconductor sectors involved in data center buildouts. While energy might remain stable, semiconductors and certain IT infrastructure components are deemed "vulnerable" based on the call's outcome.

• Broader Market Performance:

  • IT Infrastructure and Semiconductors: These sectors are currently performing "very green across the board," with multiple assets up 5%, 6%, 8% or more. These are identified as the "big sectors" most impacted by Nvidia's results.
  • Mag 7: The "Magnificent Seven" tech stocks are also doing "pretty well today."
  • Other Sectors: Cooling and mechanical sectors show "a fair bit of red," while "alt power" (solar, lithium) is performing well.
  • Overall Market Trend: The current market is experiencing a "nice bounce across the board," including crypto, suggesting a "technical bounce" after recent "wobbly" periods caused by news like tariffs. The ultimate direction, however, hinges on Nvidia's earnings.

Leveraging AI for Investment Research: Chris's Methodology

Chris details his practical, daily use of AI to enhance his investment research and analysis, emphasizing that anyone can adopt these methods by simply starting to use AI tools.

1. Deep Research and Concept Extraction

• Process: Chris loads YouTube videos into an AI (e.g., Claude) to break down complex concepts, extract important themes and theses, and then distill these into actionable investment ideas, identifying specific stocks or assets to express those ideas.

2. Custom Dashboards: Crypto Breadth Indicator

• Problem: TradingView has a limitation, only allowing data pulls for about 40 assets at a time, insufficient for tracking the top 200 crypto assets for a "crypto breadth indicator" (advancers vs. decliners over 1-hour, 24-hour, 7-day, 30-day periods).
• AI Solution (Claude):
  1. Chris initiated a conversation with Claude, stating his goal to create a crypto breadth indicator for the top 200 assets by market cap.
  2. Claude initially discussed TradingView limitations and workarounds.
  3. Crucially, Claude proactively recommended creating a custom HTML web interface dashboard instead of forcing it into TradingView.
  4. Claude generated a fully functional HTML interface, a "readme instruction tutorial document," and explained how to obtain a free Coin Market Cap API key to power the data.
  5. Timeframe: The entire process took "literally 5-10 minutes to create" and another "10 minutes or so to get it up and running."
• Dashboard Functionality:
  • Displays advancers vs. decliners for 1-hour, 24-hour, 7-day, and 30-day periods.
  • Current Data (30-day): Shows "pretty ugly" conditions, reflecting recent market trends.
  • Current Data (7-day): Indicates a rebound, with about 47% advancers, moving in the right direction but still below 50%.
  • Current Data (24-hour): Shows a strong uptrend.
  • Allows toggling charts by 24 hours, 7 days, and 30 days, with the 30-day trend being most significant for identifying stronger weekly upside trends.
  • Lists the top 10 gainers and decliners out of the 200 assets in the last 24 hours.
• Key Takeaway: AI can not only solve problems but also suggest superior, more efficient solutions (like a custom dashboard over a limited TradingView approach).

3. Custom TradingView Indicators: Correlation Tool

• Problem: The need for a specific indicator (e.g., correlation between Bitcoin and S&P 500) that might not exist in TradingView's public library.
• AI Solution (Claude):
  1. Chris prompted Claude: "Make me an indicator that shows me the correlation between say Bitcoin and the S&P 500 and have it just be a little line chart down at the bottom."
  2. Claude generated a chunk of Pine Script code.
  3. Implementation:
     • Open TradingView's Pine Editor (lower right).
     • Delete existing code and paste the AI-generated code.
     • If syntax errors occur (common), screenshot and paste them back into Claude for quick fixes.
     • Once the code is correct, click "Add to Chart."
  4. Customization: The indicator can be named, published, saved to a personal library, and its settings (e.g., comparison asset like Ethereum, time period for correlation calculation) can be adjusted.
• Timeframe: This process took "not even five minutes."
• Key Takeaway: AI significantly simplifies the creation of custom analytical tools, even for users without coding expertise.

Choosing and Utilizing AI Tools

• Start Using Them: The primary advice is to "just start using" LLMs daily, asking questions and stating needs. This iterative process improves prompting skills and leads to quicker, more refined results.
• Premium Versions: Recommended to use premium versions (e.g., $20/month) for faster performance, priority access, and the latest models.
• Trying Multiple LLMs:
  • Specialization: Different LLMs excel in different areas (e.g., Claude for coding, data gathering, dashboards; ChatGPT for creative content, trend analysis, draft suggestions).
  • Competition Benefits: The constant "cat-and-mouse game" among LLM developers (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, Perplexity) to "one-up the other" through continuous updates benefits consumers with ever-improving models.
  • Promotions: Many LLMs offer free trials or promotions (e.g., Perplexity Pro for connecting Venmo, Gemini Pro with a new Pixel phone) to attract users.
• Learning Process: AI acts as a "built-in instruction manual on the fly," guiding users through technical setups and error resolution by simply asking it questions or pasting error messages.

Community Engagement and Future Content

• Real Vision Community: The show plans to involve the Real Vision community by bringing members on stage to share their AI usage and learning experiences.
• Trade Idea Competition: A "trade idea competition" will run from March 3rd to March 17th, open to Real Vision members. Prizes include a one-on-one portfolio review with Andreas, tier upgrades, and free merchandise. It's not limited to AI trades.
• Duran BTC: A Real Vision community member, Duran BTC, is featured to share how he automated his investing research using AI (specifically Open Claude on a Mac Mini), reducing his weekly workload from 20-30 hours. This segment is available on the Real Vision website.

Conclusion: Main Takeaways

The AI boom is presented as a foundational shift, not a speculative bubble, driven by real capital and poised to usher in a long-term productivity wave. The immediate market sentiment is heavily influenced by Nvidia's earnings, which will serve as a critical indicator for the hardware and semiconductor sectors. For individual investors, AI tools like Claude and ChatGPT offer transformative capabilities, enabling deep research, custom data visualization, and the creation of bespoke analytical tools with minimal technical expertise. The key actionable insight is to actively engage with these LLMs daily, experiment with different platforms, and leverage their ability to act as on-demand technical guides, thereby enhancing investment research and decision-making tenfold. The show itself aims to foster a community of AI-empowered investors, sharing practical applications and insights.